Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.355 | EURUSD 1.12871 | AUDUSD 0.7081 | NZDUSD 0.68693 | USDCAD 1.33546 | USDCHF 1.00783 | GBPUSD 1.30726 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12902 | 1.12827

USDJPY                 111.373 | 111.145

GBPUSD               1.31001 | 1.30628

USDCHF               1.00775 | 1.00733

AUDUSD              0.70803 | 0.70493

USDCAD               1.33716 | 1.33508

NZDUSD               0.68613 | 0.68356

EURCHF                1.13751 | 1.13702

EURGBP               0.86399 | 0.8616

EURJPY                 125.718 | 125.457

For Today

  • GBP: So little more than 24hrs later the market is back to where it started, the market opened around the 1.3065 areas and after a slow move through to Tokyo rose only a little through to the 1.3090 areas to trade quietly through the bulk of the session holding that area into the grey hours, Downside congestion through the 1.2960 levels with the market increasing bids into the 1.2900 areas before limited stops start to appear on a move through the figure level however, weakness is likely to start appearing on any dips through the 1.2860 areas with downside selling possibly increasing. Topside offers light through the 1.3150 level where buying could possibly increase into the 1.3200 levels.
  • JPY: Testing in early trading to the 111.25 area the market reversed into the Tokyo session and pushed to the highs for the session just below the 111.40 area and then off down to the 111.15 level with the market holding for a few hours before pushing slowly to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through the 111.80 level and increasing into the 112.00 areas and through the level, having spent a week or so banging at the 112.10 levels the market is likely to initially struggle with the level but any break above the 112.20 areas is possibly going to see strong stops appearing and a quick run to the 112.60 area before resistance starts to increase again to slow the market into the 113.00 level. Downside congestion likely to be congested through to the 110.40 with limited weak stops exposing the 110.00 levels with stronger congestions into that level and likely continuing deep through the level.
  • AUD: A slow drift from the opening testing through to the 0.7070 levels before dipping quickly through to the 0.7050 areas once the release of consumer confidence numbers testing lightly through the 0.7050 area and holding quietly through to the grey hours close to those lows. downside bids into the 70 cents level and possibly just through the level before weak stops appear however, congestion is possibly all the way down to the 0.6950 levels and strong in that area with only limited weakness on any further pushes to wards 69 cent, topside offer light through to the 71 cent level and while there may be some resistance that resistance is still building and a push through the 0.7120 level will see the congestion swept away to open the market to a slow grind higher and stronger offers through 0.7150.
  • EUR: An extremely tight and quiet range with the market and running through the session unable to push convincingly through the 1.1290 level and drifting just below the level through to the grey hours, Downside weakness exposes the 1.1170 levels still with congestion then reappearing and running through to the 1.1140 area before the market opens to very limited congestion and the potential for a deeper move through the 1.1080 areas and stops. Better bids likely around the sentimental areas possibly slowing a decline. Topside sees some congestion for any move towards the 1.1280 level and limited resistance to any move through the 1.1300 area and weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1310-20 area opening the market to a slow grind from there on.

 

 

Overnight News

EUR/GBP:

PM May’s Brexit deal was voted down for the second time 242 to 391 against

EU says it can do nothing more to help May after her deal suffers second huge defeat

EUR:

ECB to design TLTROs in way to keep down demand RTRS

ECB calls general idea behind MMT a dangerous proposition BBG

Praet: Negative rates are powerful tool to reach ECB objective (ask the BoJ)

Praet: Positive effects of negative rates outweigh side effects BBG

Borrell warns of existential Spanish election next month – BFW

USD/CNY:

Lighthizer says major issues are unresolved as China talks drag on NYT

Lighthizer: Getting a trade deal with China is a big if – NYT

USD/OPEC:

In private talks, OPEC is said to warn Wall Street on NOPEC

If NOPEC law is passed allowing the US to sue OPEC cartel each producer would hike production to destroy fracking production – BBG

USD:

US Sec Pompeo: Criticizes China, Russia, Venezuela, and Iran in remarks touting rising US energy supplies

Pompeo: US will use all economic tools at disposal to handle Venezuelan crisis

Pompeo: US committed to bringing Iranian crude oil exports to zero as quickly as market conditions will permit

Pompeo: China is blocking other southeast Asian countries from developing resources worth $2.5T

NZD:

NZ Feb home sales fall 9.5% from year ago – REINZ

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar A -4.80% | P 4.30%

JPY         Domestic CGPI Y/Y Feb A 0.80% | C 0.70% | P 0.60%

JPY         Machine Orders M/M Jan A -5.40% | C -1.50% | P -0.10%

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jan A 0.40% | C -0.30% | P -0.30% | R -0.50%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jan C 1.00% | P -0.90%

12:30     USD       PPI M/M Feb C 0.20% | P -0.10%

12:30     USD       PPI Y/Y Feb C 1.90% | P 2.00%

12:30     USD       PPI Core M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.30%

12:30     USD       PPI Core Y/Y Feb C 2.60% | P 2.60%

12:30     USD       Durable Goods Orders Jan (P) C -0.50% | P 1.20%

12:30     USD       Durables Ex Transportation Jan (P) C 0.10% | P 0.10%

14:00     USD       Construction Spending M/M Jan C 0.40% | P -0.60%

14:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P 7.1M

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.3150 level and the announcement my PM May of a change to the Brexit backstop from the EU had the market quickly leap higher pushing to the 1.3290 areas in a wild spike before dropping back to a more comfortable 1.3220 areas and ranged through to the Tokyo session in the 1.3200-50 levels before settling back a little to drift back to the 1.3200 level to the grey hours, London were limited buyers pushing to the 1.3240 levels before starting a slow drift through to the early morning and more people had read the documents in question, generally speaking the change of font on the document makes little difference to the actual wording and the market dropped back quickly as the media reported the facts quickly dipping to just above the 1.3000 level before bouncing and a slow rise through to the opening levels again into the NYK session, the market then drifted through to the 2nd vote on the Brexit deal and like the first vote a large defeat for May, the market blipped on the release before holding quietly around the 1.3060 areas.
  • JPY: Opening around the 111.20 areas the market made some steady headways through to the Tokyo session pushing to the 111.45 area before running into congestion and ranging through to late in the session before moving towards the grey hours falling through to the 111.25 level to bounce back and again push to test the 111.45 level making the high for the day before moving into the London session and then slowly slipping through the session with GBPJPY doing a lot of work as the market pushed to the lows for the day just above the 111.10 areas and the move into the NYK reversing the losses, the market then remained in the 111.25-40 areas through to the close.
  • AUD: A limited range through the day with the market opening around the 0.7075 areas holding through the Tokyo session dipping into the opening and dropping to make the lows around the 0.7060 level after weak confidence and business condition numbers, the market steadily recovered and ran through to the Grey hours trading around the 0.7070 level before rising through the morning part of London to test the 0.7080 levels however, weakness in the GBP dragged the Oz back towards the lows before NYK moved in and again reversed the market and pushed slowly through to the highs for the day just above the 0.7090 areas and ranging around the 0.7085 level to the close.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1245 areas the market was pulled along with the Cable move but in a less major move testing through to the 1.1275 areas before settling back to trade around the 1.1260 areas through to the grey hours, early London were steady buyers and the market pushed to the 1.1280 level into the opening before dipping back to the opening levels for the run to NYK, early NYK were quick buyers and the market again tested through to the 1.1280 area and then a slow move through the session to test just above the 1.1300 areas before drifting back to hold just below the 1.1290 areas to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q1 A -7.3 | C 4.8 | P 5.5

AUD       NAB Business Conditions Feb A 4 | C 5 | P 7

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Feb A 2 | C 3 | P 4

AUD       Home Loans M/M Jan A -2.60% | C -2.00% | P -8.20%

GBP       GDP M/M Jan A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P -0.40%

GBP       Index of Services 3M/3M Jan A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%

GBP       Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jan A -13.1B | C -12.11B | P -12.10B

GBP       Industrial Production M/M Jan A 0.60% | C 0.20% | P -0.50%

GBP       Industrial Production Y/Y Jan A -0.90% | C -1.30% | P -0.90%

GBP       Manufacturing Production M/M Jan A 0.80% | C 0.20% | P -0.70%

GBP       Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan A -1.10% | C -1.90% | P -2.10%

GBP       Construction Output M/M Jan A 2.80% | C 0.80% | P -2.80%

USD       CPI M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.00%

USD       CPI Y/Y Feb A 1.50% | C 1.60% | P 1.60%

USD       CPI Core M/M Feb A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%

USD       CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 2.10% | C 2.20% | P 2.20%

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.