Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.403 | EURUSD 1.13515 | AUDUSD 0.70885 | NZDUSD 0.68597 | USDCAD 1.33236 | USDCHF 0.99925 | GBPUSD 1.32659 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13570 | 1.1343

USDJPY                 111.693 | 111.367

GBPUSD               1.32731 | 1.32527

USDCHF               1.00000 | 0.99863

AUDUSD              0.70900 | 0.70572

USDCAD               1.33390 | 1.33215

NZDUSD               0.68556 | 0.68286

EURCHF                1.13450 | 1.13389

EURGBP               0.85622 | 0.85543

EURJPY                 126.750 | 126.472

For Today

• GBP: Opening around the 1.3270 areas the market moved sideways into the Tokyo session before dipping through to hold in the 1.3250-55 areas to the grey hours, downside light bids into the 1.3200 areas with weak stops likely through the area and congestion through to the 1.3150 level, with weak stops likely on the way through the level and nothing substantial until closer to the stronger 1.3000 levels, topside offers light through to the 1.3300 level with some offers likely to be through the level and stronger stops on a push through the 1.3320 level possible however, 1.3350 will start to see strong offers appearing and building through to the 1.3400 level.
• JPY: USDJPY saw some stronger bids appearing on a move into the Tokyo session moving off the 111.35 area lows to push to the 111.50 on the opening in Tokyo and then increasing from the fix on a push to the 111.70 levels before running into some substantial offers and then dipping to 111.60 level for a long run to the grey hours, Topside offers through the 111.80-112.00 level and possibly continuing through to the 112.20 areas before weak stops appear and the market finds topside freedom through to the 112.40-60 areas likely to be weak however, stronger offers are likely to increase from that point on any move to the 113.00 levels. Downside bids light through to the 111.00 level with a push through the 110.80 area possibly seeing weak stops on a move through and the market then increasing in bids on any dip into the 110.50 level with weakness then likely to run through the 110.00 areas opening a dip through the congested 109.50 levels.
• AUD: Oz sellers from the opening in Tokyo as AUDJPY offers impacted the Oz on the USDJPY rise however, the weakness continues on the back of housing and mortgage instability and concerns about tensions with China, the move into the Tokyo session saw the Oz drop back from the early highs just above the 0.7090 level and dipping lightly through the 0.7060 area before bouncing a little and eventually moving back into the 0.7070-75 areas for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through the 71 cent level with possible weak stops appearing on any break on a move through the 0.7120-30 area opening up limited potential through to the 0.7150 areas and congestion then running through the level and increasing on any attempt to push the 72 cents, downside bids light through to the 0.7050 level with congestion then increasing on any dip through the level and with strong bids in the 70 cent, any stops below this level are likely to absorbed by continuing strong bids through to the 0.6950 areas.
• EUR: Limited gains through to the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.1355 level to make the highs before falling back as USD buyers moved into the market, the Euro touched through the 1.1345 level to make the lows in early Tokyo before holding quietly in a very narrow range through to the grey hours, Topside congestion through the 1.1340-60 area still remains if somewhat weaker with the market then opening to stronger offers into the 1.1380-1.1420 area with weak stops on a move through the level however, congestion is likely to be still present and limiting any rush through to the stronger 1.1480-1.1500 level. downside bids congested a little around the 1.1300 levels however, weak stops on a move below the 1.1280 level and the market again opening to the 1.1200-1.1180 areas with strong bids likely in the area, any push through the level is likely to see continuing congestion through to the 1.1150 levels before any weakness truly appears.

Overnight News

AUD:

Sydney Apartments pose risk to Financial stability, RBA warns

RBA’s Bullock upbeat on household’s ability to service debt BLG

RBA Urging banks to loosen up lending rules if they can Bullock

AUD100B of lease liabilities headed for balance sheet AFR

AUD/CNY:

Australian coal in the firing line of Chinese environmental crackdown – SMH

EUR/CNY:

EU accelerates moves to block China’s market access Politico

EUR/GBP:

Brexit delay, why would we extend these discussions Spiegel

EU hardens stance on Brexit delay as May’s cabinet splits over its demands – FTI

GBP:

Cabinet members could quit over Brexit delay as PM May told she risks end of the Conservative party Telegraph

The last days of Rome, how cabinet divisions were laid bare amid stark warnings over long Brexit delay Telegraph

Eurosceptic Tories use covert talks to call on EU countries to veto Brexit extension – Telegraph

USD/CNY:

US-China talks suffer mixed signals blues ahead of Beijing restart – AFR

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Current Account (NZD) Q4 A -3.26B | C -3.55B | P -6.15B

AUD       Westpac Leading Index M/M Feb A 0.00% | P 0.00% | R 0.10%

JPY         BOJ Minutes Jan

07:00     EUR        German PPI M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.40%

07:00     EUR        German PPI Y/Y Feb C 2.90% | P 2.60%

09:30     GBP       CPI M/M Feb C 0.40% | P -0.80%

09:30     GBP       CPI Y/Y Feb C 1.80% | P 1.80%

09:30     GBP       Core CPI Y/Y Feb C 1.90% | P 1.90%

09:30     GBP       RPI M/M Feb C 0.70% | P -0.90%

09:30     GBP       RPI Y/Y Feb C 2.50% | P 2.50%

09:30     GBP       PPI Input M/M Feb C 0.60% | P -0.10%

09:30     GBP       PPI Input Y/Y Feb C 4.10% | P 2.90%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output M/M Feb C 0.10% | P 0.00%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Y/Y Feb C 2.20% | P 2.10%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Core M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.40%

09:30     GBP       PPI Output Core Y/Y Feb C 2.30% | P 2.40%

09:30     GBP       House Price Index Y/Y Jan C 2.40% | P 2.50%

11:00     GBP       CBI Trends Total Orders Mar C 5 | P 6

14:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P -3.9M

18:00     USD       FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) C 2.50% | P 2.50%

18:00     USD       FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) C 2.25% | P 2.25%

18:30     USD       FOMC Press Conference

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A limited day for the most part, opening around the 1.3250 level the market drifted a little through to the 1.3245 areas in early trading and pushed quickly through to the topside around the 1.3265 areas as early Tokyo moved in, the move through into the Tokyo session saw steady buying through to midsession testing the 1.3280 level before drifting back to move through the grey hours around the 1.3270 areas holding deep into the session before the employment numbers saw a dip below the 4% level for the first time since the UK entered the EEC/EU and the market pushed quickly through to the 1.3310 areas before dropping quickly back again and triggering light selling through into the NYK session to make the lows towards the 1.3240 level before recovering to the 1.3270 areas again and trading around the level through to the end of the day.
• JPY: A very quiet day for the USDJPY with the market initially dipping slowly through to the Tokyo session from the opening around the 111.40-45 area, Tokyo quickly sold the market down through the 111.30 areas holding for a couple of hours before pushing through to the lows of the day just below the 111.20 area before starting a slow recovery through the balance of the Tokyo session to move into the London session holding the 111.30 area, the move into London saw a limited move towards the 111.20 area again before recovering for a quick move into the NYK opening and a push through to the opening levels and the highs just short of the 111.50 areas before holding around the 111.35-40 area through to the close.
• AUD: For the most part the market held around the 71 cent level until late in the day, testing lightly through to the 0.7090 level in early Tokyo after the worse than expected house price index recovering a little from the RBA minutes to make the high just above the 0.7110 level and then drifting back to the figure and holding around the level until the end of the London session dipping back to the 0.7090 lows and continuing in the area to the close.
• EUR: Opening just below the 1.1340 level the market dipped through the 1.1335 level to make the lows in early Tokyo before starting a slow rise through into the London session pushing the 1.1350 level, London took the market another step higher into the 1.1360 level and while the range improved the highs didn’t although tested several times through the day and the market ranging around the 1.1350 level to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1 A 103.8 | P 109.1

AUD       House Price Index Q/Q Q4 A -2.40% | C -2.00% | P -1.50%

AUD       RBA Minutes Mar

CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Feb A 3.13B | C 2.88B | P 3.04B

GBP       Jobless Claims Change Feb A 27.0K | C 13.1K | P 14.2K | R 15.7K

GBP       Claimant Count Rate Feb A 2.90% | P 2.80%

GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Jan A 3.90% | C 4.00% | P 4.00%

GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY Jan A 3.40% | C 3.20% | P 3.40%

GBP       Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY Jan A 3.40% | C 3.40% | P 3.40% | R 3.50%

EUR        German ZEW Economic Sentiment Mar A -3.6 | C -11 | P -13.4

EUR        German ZEW Current Situation Mar A 11.1 | C 13 | P 15

EUR        Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Mar A -2.5 | C -15.1 | P -16.6

USD       Factory Orders Jan A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.10%

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