Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.706 | EURUSD 1.14128 | AUDUSD 0.71167 | NZDUSD 0.68457 | USDCAD 1.33042 | USDCHF 0.99267 | GBPUSD 1.31936|
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14376 | 1.14129
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.746 | 110.408
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32268 | 1.31811
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99284 | 0.99042
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71683 | 0.71137
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33048 | 1.32769
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69389 | 0.68593
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13284 | 1.13212
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86622 | 0.86413
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 126.602 | 126.118
For Today
- GBP: A slow rise from the 1.3185 are allows saw the market moving into the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.3200 level to push lightly above the 1.3225 area and stall for a brief period before slipping a little to retest the figure area, the move towards the grey hours saw the market holding quietly around the 1.3200 area, Topside offers rather weak through to the 1.3280 level and then stronger offers then appearing on any move towards the 1.3300 level, a push through the level will possibly see weak stops appearing and testing quickly through to the 1.3350 level and the start of better offers again reappearing for any run towards the 1.3400 level and weakness beyond. Downside bids light through to the 1.3100 level with congestion likely in the area, with minor stops on a move through and limited bids through to the stronger 1.3000 level and continuing through to the 1.2950 level and stronger congestion around the level, a break below will likely see the market testing quickly lower through to the 1.2800 level and the lows from last month.
- JPY: A slow start to the day saw the market ranging tightly around the opening 110.70 level and then starting to drift on a move through early Tokyo falling steadily through to the 110.40 level before finding sufficient bids to hold the light selling and return the market to the 110.50 level for the move to the grey hours, strong congestion around the current level and through to the 110.30 area, light weakness will then likely see stronger bids appearing on any attempt to push the 110.00 level and congestion then likely to continue in mixed form until the market pushes at the 109.60 level and increasing through to the 109.30 level before the downside opens to the 108 handle. Topside offers light through to the 111.00 level and building offers are limited, a test through the level is likely to see weak stops but possibly running into congestive offers that increases the further the market pushes particularly through 111.50 and the 112.00 level likely to be very strong again.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7125 level the better than expected employment numbers saw the market pushing to the 0.7165 level before stalling with the market running into sufficient offers to curb its enthusiasm, drifting back to the 0.7145 level the market held a tight range then on its run to the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 72 cents level with likely stronger offers in the area and weak stops pushing through the 0.7220 level however, the push through to the 0.7240-60 level is likely to see stronger congestion slowing any further movement. Downside bids are likely to be light and congestive from the 0.7130 area and continuing into the 71 cents area before stronger bids start to move in on any dip through the 71 cents with that congestion likely to be deep through to the 0.7020 area, weak stops a possibility through the 0.6980 area however, likely to be quickly absorbed.
- EUR: A slow rise through the session to the 1.1435 area before slipping steadily back through to the 1.1420 areas and just off the opening lows in quiet trading for the Euro, Topside congestion through the 1.1340-60 area still remains if somewhat weaker with the market then opening to stronger offers into the 1.1380-1.1420 area with weak stops on a move through the level however, congestion is likely to be still present and limiting any rush through to the stronger 1.1480-1.1500 level. downside bids congested a little around the 1.1300 levels however, weak stops on a move below the 1.1280 level and the market again opening to the 1.1200-1.1180 areas with strong bids likely in the area, any push through the level is likely to see continuing congestion through to the 1.1150 levels before any weakness truly appears.
Overnight News
AUD:
Labour force: Mixed outcome but unemployment rate lowest in 8yrs
Brickworks predicts a re-run of 1980s housing market – AFR
EUR:
German growth to remain subdued in 1H Finance ministry
EUR/GBP:
Tusk says short delay requires deal to be done – BBG
GBP:
Standoff over Brexit delay takes UK to edge of no deal BBG
Brexiteers to bring country to its knees by blocking M25 delay to acting on Article 50 Express
USD:
Powell just boxed the Fed into a corner it shouldn’t be in AFR
Fed trims economic growth forecasts for this year BBG
US Crude inventories see biggest weekly drop since July – BBG
USD/CNY:
Trump says China tariffs will remain in place after trade deal – Forbes
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Feb A 4.6K | C 15.2K | P 39.1K | R 38.3K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb A 4.90% | C 5.00% | P 5.00%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate C -0.75% | P -0.75%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range C -0.25% | P -0.25%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range C -1.25% | P -1.25%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monthly Bulletin
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Feb C -0.3B | P -15.8B
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel M/M Feb C -0.40% | P Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Feb C 3.30% | P 4.20%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M Feb C -0.40% | P 1.20%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Feb C 3.50% | P 4.10%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.75% | P 0.75%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Mar C 435B | P 435B
12:00    GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:00    GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Jan C 0.50% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Mar C 5 | P -4.1
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 16) C 226K | P 229K
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Feb C 0.10% | P -0.10%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -204B
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow move lower to hold just above the 1.3250 level from the opening around the 1.3270 areas for the move into the grey hours, early London sellers saw the market testing to the 1.3200 areas and briefly recapturing the 1.3250 level after stronger inflationary numbers before the usual Brexit commentary started to kick in with EU demanding a deal done before an extension and other nefarious clauses and the Cable saw a limited collapse through to the 1.3150 levels into the NYK session before starting a slow move through NYK to the end of London pushing back to the 1.3220 area and ranging for a while around the 1.3200 areas, PM May’s speech on a extension saw the market push quickly through to the 1.3250 level before dropping back again with Theresa May’s moans about MP’s obstinance, while missing the point that she is one. The market ended up just below the 1.3200 level and providing much of the entertainment for the day.
- JPY: Opening around the 111.40 areas the market saw early strong buying forcing the market steadily through to the 111.70 highs for the day, the market then drifted through most of the session pushing to the 111.50 levels for the move into the NYK session and then holding around the 111.40 areas through to late in the day with the comments from PM May and FOMC commentary seeing strong GBPJPY selling moving through the market and the USDJPY dipping through to the 110.55 area before finding a base and holding through to the close just off those lows.
- AUD: Moving through to the Tokyo session holding the 0.7080 areas the market then dipped from the opening in Tokyo and tested through to the 0.7055 levels before slowly rising through to the NYK session pushing to the 0.7100 levels on a very slow rise with very little from the daily traders affecting the market, the move through to the FOMC saw limited movement and the market sitting back only slightly before running quickly on the FOMC release and the Oz quickly running to the 0.7150 area before failing and dipping back to the 0.7125 areas for a slow move to the close.
- EUR: A very quiet session through to the FOMC, ranging around the 1.1350 opening levels with minor dips into the 1.1340 level and only pushing beyond the 1.1365 area into the opening in NYK before holding again in the same opening levels to the FOMC, the market then saw quick buying to push through the 1.1400 level triggering weak stops on a test towards the 1.1450 levels before drifting back a little into the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (NZD) Q4 A -3.26B | C -3.55B | P -6.15B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Feb A 0.00% | P 0.00% | R 0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Minutes Jan
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Feb A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Feb A 2.60% | C 2.90% | P 2.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Feb A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P -0.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Feb A 1.90% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Feb A 1.80% | C 1.90% | P 1.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Feb A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P -0.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Feb A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Feb A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P -0.10% | R -0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Feb A 3.70% | C 4.10% | P 2.90% | R 2.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Feb A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Feb A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Feb A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Feb A 2.20% | C 2.30% | P 2.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y Jan A 1.70% | C 2.40% | P 2.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Mar A 1 | C 5 | P 6
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -9.6M | C 0.5M | P -3.9M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) A 2.25% | C 2.25% | P 2.25%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Press Conference
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