Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.852 | EURUSD 1.12177 | AUDUSD 0.70968 | NZDUSD 0.68081 | USDCAD 1.33502 | USDCHF 0.99524 | GBPUSD 1.30346 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12421 | 1.12205
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.184 | 110.874
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30565 | 1.30098
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99639 | 0.9950
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71279 | 0.71055
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33560 | 1.33424
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68343 | 0.68138
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11902 | 1.11678
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86271 | 0.8610
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.834 | 124.444
For Today
- GBP: Opening unchanged from the close on Friday the market ran into the Tokyo session dipping through to the 1.3015 level and drifting through the early part of the session to test the 1.3010 areas before starting a slow steady rise through to the 1.3035 area to the grey hour, downside bids into the 1.3000 level and through into congestion from the 1.2990 level to 1.2960 before the market opens a little to test through to the 1.2900 areas and some light congestion opening up to the 1.2850 level and stronger bids. topside offers light through to the 1.3100 level with limited offers before weak stops move in with weak congestion likely to absorb the move and slowing into the 1.3150 level and stronger offers starting to build through to the 1.3200 levels.
- JPY: Opening about 20 pips stronger the USDJPY pushed through to the 111.05 areas before giving up the gains and filling the gap on the charts and settling to the 110.90 level for the move into the Tokyo session, weaker than expected Tankan overall saw the USDJPY slowly rise towards the 111.20 areas before drifting through to the Tokyo lunch hour and the grey hour holding just above the figure level. Light congestion through the 110.40-60 areas with the market increasing on the bid side into the 110.00 levels with congestion likely to continue through to the 109.80-75 areas before weak stops appear and the market struggles through to the 109.60-30 level likely to slow the market on any dip before weaker bids protest the 109.00 level and stops likely on a dip through the 108.70 levels. Topside congestion likely to increase in size on any move through to the 110.60 level and ultimately strong offers into the 111.00 level with a possible small squeeze through the 111.20 areas and opening a test to the 112.00 areas.
- AUD: Oz buying in pre-market saw the market opening just short of the 0.7120 areas and the market slowly slipping through to the 0.7105 areas to fill much of the gap from the Friday close, the move through the session saw Oz pushing slowly through the 0.7120 level before dipping away from the 0.7130 area to hold just south of the 0.7120 level for the move into the grey hour, downside congestion through to the 70 cents level and stronger bids through the 0.7020-00 areas supporting the market for the moment with bigger stops on any dip through the level, topside offers likely to increase through the 0.7150 level if it can push there, with the higher it goes the stronger they get into the 72cents area and stops likely on a push through before congestion and stronger offers reappear.
- EUR: Slightly stronger from Friday with the market holding in early trading around the 1.1230 level before dipping away through to the 1.1220 in quiet Tokyo opening, as with the others a slow but steady rise through a quiet session to test towards the 1.1235 level and the highs for the move into the grey hour, downside bids increasing into the 1.1200 areas and through to the 1.1180 level wit4h weak stops on a move through the level before congestion starts to appear and likely to be plenty of it on any move through the 1.11 handle and too the 1.1120 levels and stronger bids appearing, topside offers light through to the 1.1280-1.1300 areas with weak stops on any move through the 1.1320 areas to open a quick test to the 1.1350 levels before stronger congestion starts to appear the closer to the 1.1400 you get.
Overnight News
JPY:
BoJ should avoid deepening negative rates, Bank lobby chief says BBG
Non-manufacturers sentiment worsens to lowest since March 2017, worsens at fastest pace since Jun 18
AUD:
Morrison seeks to sway Australia with last ditch spending spree BBG
Oz firms following their counterparts across Tasman potentially facing a Labour govt. and ongoing China stress – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Mar A 51 | P 54
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q1 A 12 | C 13 | P 19
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Q1 A 8 | C 13 | P 15
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 A 21 | C 22 | P 24
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A 20 | C 20 | P 20
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1 A 1.20% | C 0.80% | P 14.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Manufacturing Index Q1 A 6 | C 10 | P 14
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A -2 | C 6 | P 8
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 A 12 | C 9 | P 11
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A 5 | C 5 | P 5
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â TD Securities Inflation M/M Mar A 0.40% | P 0.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Conditions Mar A 7 | C 2 | P 4
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Mar A 0 | C 4 | P 2
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Mar (F) A 49.2 | P 48.9
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Mar A 50.8 | C 50 | P 49.9
05:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Commodity Index AUD Mar A | P 129.7
06:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Real Y/Y Feb P -0.40%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Mar C 53.5 | P 55.4
07:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Mar C 47.5 | P 47.7
07:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) C 49.9 | P 49.8
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) C 44.7 | P 44.7
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) C 47.7 | P 47.6
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Mar C 51.2 | P 52
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb C 7.80% | P 7.80%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar C 1.50% | P 1.50%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Mar (A) C 1.00% | P 1.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Advance M/M Feb C 0.30% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Feb C 0.40% | P 0.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Mar P 52.6
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) C 52.5 | P 52.5
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Mar C 54.3 | P 54.2
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Mar P 49.4
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Employment Mar P 52.3
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Feb C -0.10% | P 1.30%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Jan C 0.40% | P 0.60%
Weekend News
Â
TRY:
Turkey oppositions Kilicadaroglu says won in Istanbul
USD:
Pres. Trump again blames US Fed policy for hurting growth
CNY:
China Mar Manufacturing PMI: 50.5 vs. 49.6, highest since Sep 2018 and the first reading above 50 since Oct
GBP:
At least 6 Cabinet members to resign if PM May supports a no deal Sunday Times
PM May advisors are deeply divided over whether to call a snap election
Conservative MP’s threaten to block any attempt by PM May to call a snap election Observer
DUP will oppose PM’s deal each time BBC (remainer)
Delivering Brexit is the best way for the Tories to avoid a Corbyn government – Telegraph
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Feb A 1.90% | P 16.50% | R 13.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb A 2.30% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar A 1.10% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Feb (P) A 1.40% | C 1.30% | P -3.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Feb A 0.40% | C 0.90% | P 0.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Mar A -13 | C -14 | P -13
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Sector Credit M/M Feb A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Feb A 4.20% | C -0.10% | P 1.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Feb A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P -0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Feb A 0.90% | C -0.90% | P 3.30%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Mar A 97.4 | C 93.9 | P 92.4 | R 93
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change (000’s) Mar A -7K | C -10K | P -21K | R -20K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. Mar A 4.90% | C 4.90% | P 5.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Feb A 64K | C 65K | P 67K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Money Supply M4 M/M Feb A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Total Business Investment Q/Q Q4 (F) A -0.90% | C -1.40% | P -1.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (GBP) Q4 A -23.7B | C -22.9B | P -26.5B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Jan A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P -0.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Feb A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P -0.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Feb A 4.60% | C 1.20% | P 3.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Feb A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Jan A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P -0.50% | R -0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Jan A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Jan A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.70% | R 1.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Jan A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Jan A 1.80% | C 1.90% | P 1.90% | R 2.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Mar A 58.7 | C 61 | P 64.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Feb A 667K | C 625K | P 607K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Mich. Sentiment Mar (F) A 98.4 | C 97.8 | P 97.8
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