Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.351 | EURUSD 1.12138 | AUDUSD 0.71123 | NZDUSD 0.6812 | USDCAD 1.33081 | USDCHF 0.99876 | GBPUSD 1.31043 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12087 | 1.11959

USDJPY                 111.455 | 111.29

GBPUSD               1.30810 | 1.30595

USDCHF               0.99963 | 0.99865

AUDUSD              0.71306 | 0.70786

USDCAD               1.33233 | 1.33064

NZDUSD               0.67992 | 0.67719

EURCHF                1.11998 | 1.11875

EURGBP               0.85777 | 0.85662

EURJPY                 124.891 | 124.681

For Today

• GBP: A very limited session with the market dipping from the opening as commentary on Brexit saw the market gapping through to 1.3085 and trading through to the 1.3030 level before bouncing to the 1.3085 area and then quietly ranging around the 1.3070 areas through to the grey hour, downside bids into the 1.3000 level and through into congestion from the 1.2990 level to 1.2960 before the market opens a little to test through to the 1.2900 areas and some light congestion opening up to the 1.2850 level and stronger bids. topside offers light through to the 1.3100 level with limited offers before weak stops move in with weak congestion likely to absorb the move and slowing into the 1.3150 level and stronger offers starting to build through to the 1.3200 levels.
• JPY: A quiet range through to the 111.46 level into the Tokyo session before ranging in the 111.30-40 level through to the grey hour, Light congestion through the 110.40-60 areas with the market increasing on the bid side into the 110.00 levels with congestion likely to continue through to the 109.80-75 areas before weak stops appear and the market struggles through to the 109.60-30 level likely to slow the market on any dip before weaker bids protest the 109.00 level and stops likely on a dip through the 108.70 levels. Topside congestion likely to increase in size on any move through to the 111.60 level and ultimately strong offers into the 112.00 level with a possible small squeeze through the 112.20 areas and opening a test higher.
• AUD: Opening around the 0.7110 levels and ranging through to the RBA announcement around that level with one brief spike to the 0.7120 level, the market spiked to the 0.7130 level on the announcement before dropping quickly through to the 0.7080 level with no change and very little change to the communique and the market holding through to the grey hours on the lows. downside congestion through to the 70 cents level and stronger bids through the 0.7020-00 areas supporting the market for the moment with bigger stops on any dip through the level, topside offers likely to increase through the 0.7150 level if it can push there, with the higher it goes the stronger they get into the 72cents area and stops likely on a push through before congestion and stronger offers reappear.
• EUR: An early drop from the opening to the 1.1200 level as with the Cable before rising a little towards the 1.1210 in a very quiet session before drifting through to the grey hours holding around the 1.1200 level testing to the 1.1196 area for the low. downside bids increasing into the 1.1200 areas and through to the 1.1180 level with weak stops on a move through the level before congestion starts to appear and likely to be plenty of it on any move through the 1.11 handle and too the 1.1120 levels and stronger bids appearing, topside offers light through to the 1.1280-1.1300 areas with weak stops on any move through the 1.1320 areas to open a quick test to the 1.1350 levels before stronger congestion starts to appear the closer to the 1.1400 you get.

Overnight News

GBP:

All 4 remainer motions were defeated in UK’s Parliament

Staying in Customs Union

Staying in Single market

A second Referendum on Brexit deal

Repealing Article 50

Britain’s Brexit Minister Barclay say’s house has continually rejected leaving without a deal NYT

Barclay: Says default legal position is for UK to leave EU in 11 days

Barclay says Government continues to believe best course is to leave with a deal as soon as possible

Barclay: Cabinet will meet on Tuesday to consider how to proceed NYT

EUR:

Xi fails to calm Europe as Juncker takes another swipe at China BBG

ECB official say’s significant support needed amid soft inflation BBG

Markets not properly pricing in no deal Brexit ECB Vice president FT

EU Official hard Brexit nearly inevitable – APW

NZD:

NZ businesses more pessimistic in 1Q NZIER

NZIER say’s weaker sentiment suggests annual GDP growth below 2%

USD:

DJ official says White house stands behind Stephen Moore’s nomination DJC

RUB/KRW:

Russian minister in Pyongyang amid speculation over N. Korean leaders’ trip to Moscow YNA

CNY:

China company bond delinquencies quadrupled last quarter BBG

MXN:

Mexico cuts 2019 growth estimate to 1.1% from 2.1% – BFW

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Monetary base YoY A 3.80% | C 4.40% | P 4.60%

AUD       Building approvals MoM Feb A 19.10% | C -1.80% | P 2.50% | R 2.30%

AUD       RBA Rate decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%

0630       CHF        CPI MoM Mar C 0.40% | P 0.40%

0630       CHF        CPI YoY Mar C 0.50% | P 0.60%

0830       GBP       Construction PMI Mar C 49.7 | P 49.5

0900       EUR        Eurozone PPI MoM Feb C 0.20% | P 0.40%

0900       EUR        Eurozone PPI YoY Feb C 3.10% | P 3.00%

1230       USD       Durable Goods orders Feb (P) C -1.20% | P 0.30%

1230       USD       Durables ex transportation Feb (P) C 0.30% | P -0.20%

Harry Hindsight

 

• GBP: With four motions all remainer orientated the market rose through the day on expectations, as it was all four failed, opening a little higher the market drifted a little into the Tokyo session testing to the 1.3010 level through into early Tokyo before recovering and starting a steady climb through to the grey hour pushing the 1.3040 areas, early London quickly took the market through the 1.3050 areas and struggled into the London session around the 1.3070 areas spiking too the 1.3085 level before starting a fresh rally and steadily pushing through the 1.3100 level steadily into the NYK session and pausing initially at the 1.3120 level for a short period with a minor dip into the US numbers before ranging through to the 1.3150 level for the high of the day and ranging around the 1.3130 level through to late in the session before dipping on the release of Barclay comments to finish just above the 1.3100 level.
• JPY: Opening higher around the 111.00 level the market made early an early push towards the 111.10 areas, drifting back to fill the gap into the Tokyo session and holding quietly around the 110.90 level before Tokyo started a slow grind through to the 111.20 level only to run into sellers and a steady drift through into the London session holding initially around the figure level before dipping below for the move into the NYK session, a quick rise though to the 111.20 level saw some weak stops triggered as the market rose steadily through to the 111.40 level and into the congestion for the move to the close slipping back only marginally.
• AUD: Opening towards the 0.7120 level the market drifted back from the level to push to the 0.7105 area for the move into the Tokyo session, the market started a slow steady rise pushing towards the 0.7130 areas before running out of steam and drifting through to the grey hours holding around the 0.7120 level in a slow movement for the session, the move through into the London session saw the highs of the day testing above the 0.7130 area for the first time and while there was a brief pause the market eventually started a slow drift through towards the NYK session lightly pushing through the 0.7120 level before ranging through to the end of London around the 0.7120 area and finally dipping after that close to the 0.7110 area and holding just above into the close.
• EUR: Opening around the 1.1230 level the market slipped back to the 1.1220 areas into the Tokyo opening before slowly rising through the session through to the 1.1240 area into the grey hour, the move into the London opening saw the market back below the 1.1230 level and early Euro numbers saw the market dip a little before broadly holding the level through to the NYK session, the market recovered from the EU numbers to test the 1.1250 on USD selling through the London session however, the move into the NYK session saw the Euro quickly dipping back to the 1.1210 level for a long run through to the end of the session struggling to maintain the area.

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Mar A 51 | P 54

JPY         Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q1 A 12 | C 13 | P 19

JPY         Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Q1 A 8 | C 13 | P 15

JPY         Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 A 21 | C 22 | P 24

JPY         Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A 20 | C 20 | P 20

JPY         Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1 A 1.20% | C 0.80% | P 14.30%

JPY         Tankan Small Manufacturing Index Q1 A 6 | C 10 | P 14

JPY         Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A -2 | C 6 | P 8

JPY         Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 A 12 | C 9 | P 11

JPY         Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A 5 | C 5 | P 5

AUD       TD Securities Inflation M/M Mar A 0.40% | P 0.10%

AUD       NAB Business Conditions Mar A 7 | C 2 | P 4

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Mar A 0 | C 4 | P 2

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Mar (F) A 49.2 | P 48.9

CNY        Caixin PMI Manufacturing Mar A 50.8 | C 50 | P 49.9

AUD       Commodity Index AUD Mar A 123 | P 129.7 | R 123

CHF        Retail Sales Real Y/Y Feb A -0.20% | C -0.80% | P -0.40% | R -0.20%

CHF        PMI Manufacturing Mar A 50.3 | C 53.5 | P 55.4

EUR        Italy Manufacturing PMI Mar A 47.4 | C 47.5 | P 47.7

EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) A 49.7 | C 49.9 | P 49.8

EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) A 44.1 | C 44.7 | P 44.7

EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) A 47.5 | C 47.7 | P 47.6

GBP       PMI Manufacturing Mar A 55.1 | C 51.2 | P 52

EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb A 7.80% | C 7.80% | P 7.80%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar A 1.40% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Mar (A) A 0.80% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%

USD       Retail Sales Advance M/M Feb A -0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.70%

USD       Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Feb -0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.90% | R 1.40%

CAD       Manufacturing PMI Mar A 50.5 | P 52.6

USD       Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) A 52.4 | C 52.5 | P 52.5

USD       ISM Manufacturing Mar A 55.3 | C 54.3 | P 54.2

USD       ISM Prices Paid Mar A 54.3 | P 49.4

USD       ISM Employment Mar A 57.5 | P 52.3

USD       Construction Spending M/M Feb A 1.00% | C -0.10% | P 1.30% | R 2.50%

USD       Business Inventories Jan A 0.80% | C 0.40% | P 0.60% | R 0.80%

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