Daily FX Market Commentary

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Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.325 | EURUSD 1.12042 | AUDUSD 0.70714 | NZDUSD 0.67446 | USDCAD 1.33363 | USDCHF 0.99833 | GBPUSD 1.3128 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12267 | 1.12022

USDJPY                 111.531 | 111.209

GBPUSD               1.31465 | 1.31213

USDCHF               0.99826 | 0.99742

AUDUSD              0.71063 | 0.7056

USDCAD               1.33490 | 1.33141

NZDUSD               0.67798 | 0.67443

EURCHF                1.12002 | 1.11814

EURGBP               0.85475 | 0.85249

EURJPY                 125.197 | 124.611

For Today

  • GBP: A quiet range through from the opening around the 1.3130 level and basing along the 1.3125 level through into the Tokyo session before slowly rising through to the 1.3145 areas to make the highs before moving into the grey hour hold around the 1.3140 level, downside limited through the 1.3100 level and only increasing much lower into the 1.3000 level and through into congestion from the 1.2990 level to 1.2960 before the market opens a little to test through to the 1.2900 areas and some light congestion opening up to the 1.2850 level and stronger bids. topside offers light through to the 1.3150 level with limited offers before and stronger offers starting to build through to the 1.3200 levels.
  • JPY: Dipping in early Tokyo away from the opening 111.35 areas and testing through towards the 111.20 level before bouncing quickly through to the 111.50 level as good buying in AUDJPY moved through the market, and then ranging around the 111.45 level with brief flirtations above the 111.50 level and gradually centring on that level for the move into the grey hour, Light congestion through the 110.40-60 areas with the market increasing on the bid side into the 110.00 levels with congestion likely to continue through to the 109.80-75 areas before weak stops appear and the market struggles through to the 109.60-30 level likely to slow the market on any dip before weaker bids protest the 109.00 level and stops likely on a dip through the 108.70 levels. Topside congestion likely to increase in size on any move through to the 111.60 level and ultimately strong offers into the 112.00 level with a possible small squeeze through the 112.20 areas and opening a test higher.
  • AUD: Quietly drifting from the opening and then gapping from the 0.7055 level through to the 71 cents level dipping back to the 0.7090 level and then after a brief pause pushing up to range narrowly around the 71 cent levels to the grey hours after a stronger retail sales number. downside congestion through to the 70 cents level and stronger bids through the 0.7020-00 areas supporting the market for the moment with bigger stops on any dip through the level, topside offers into the 0.7150 level with possible weak stops appearing on a push through the 0.7160 level, higher the market goes from there the stronger the bids become into the 72cents area and stops likely on a push through before congestion and stronger offers reappear.

 

  • EUR: The Euro opened quietly moving into the Tokyo session holding around the 1.1205 area before lifting steadily through to make the highs around the 1.1226 level before settling down to a quiet range around the 1.1220 area. downside bids through the 1.1200 area and through to the 1.1180 level with weak stops on a move through the level possible, congestion starts to appear and likely to be plenty of it on any move through the 1.11 handle and too the 1.1120 levels and stronger bids appearing, topside offers light through to the 1.1280-1.1300 areas with weak stops on any move through the 1.1320 areas to open a quick test to the 1.1350 levels before stronger congestion starts to appear the closer to the 1.1400 you get.

 

 

Overnight News

NZD:

NZ’s Robertson says global slowdown is a risk to economy BBG

USD/CNY:

US, China officials resolve most of trade deal issues FT

US, China haggle on trade deal enforcement, implementation FT

AUD:

Short term pain masks Australia property’s long-term gain BBG

USD:

Trump to Fed Chairman Powell, I guess I’m stuck with you WSJ

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       AiG Performance of Service Index Mar A 44.8 | P 44.5

GBP       BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Mar A 0.90% | P 0.70%

NZD       ANZ Commodity Price Mar A 1.40% | P 2.80%

AUD       Retail Sales M/M Feb A 0.80% | C 0.30% | P 0.10%

AUD       Trade Balance (AUD) Feb A 4.80B | C 3.71B | P 4.55B | R 4.35B

CNY        Caixin PMI Services Mar A 54.4 | C 52 | P 51.1

07:45     EUR        Italy Services PMI Mar C 50.6 | P 50.4

07:50     EUR        France Services PMI Mar (F) C 48.9 | P 48.7

07:55     EUR        Germany Services PMI Mar (F) C 54.9 | P 54.9

08:00     EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Mar (F) C 52.7 | P 52.7

08:30     GBP       Services PMI Mar C 51 | P 51.3

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb C 0.10% | P 1.30%

12:15     USD       ADP Employment Change Mar C 184K | P 183K

13:45     USD       Services PMI Mar (F) C 54.8 | P 54.8

14:00     USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite Mar C 58 | P 59.7

14:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P 2.8M

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.3030 level the market moved steadily through to the 1.3080 levels in the run to the Tokyo session before steadying and ranging through the Asian session around the 1.3070 areas in a tight 1.3060-75 range through to the grey hour with the market lifting through to the 1.3085 areas, the move into the grey hour saw the market dipping away and testing through to the 1.3025 level before ranging around the 1.3050 levels with a wider range than normal through to the NYK session were renewed selling ran to the 1.3015 areas before returning to the 1.3050 level, the end of the London session seemed to signal a round of timed buying in Cable and the market quickly rising through to the 1.3130 areas before slowing and beginning a slow rise through to the 1.3150 level before dipping a little to the close.
  • JPY: A fairly tight range through the day, opening around the 111.35 areas and rising through to test the 111.45 level to make the highs for the day before drifting off to the 111.30 areas and basing on that level and ranging around the 111.35 level through to the NYK period, the low was made after a couple of hours in the session testing to the 111.25 level before rising slowly through to the close holding around that 111.35 areas.
  • AUD: Opening a touch lower the market traded quietly for the most part through to the RBA announcement, no change and very little different in the communique spiking to the high around the 0.7130 level before dropping off quickly through to the 0.7080 level and holding through into the grey hour before grinding lower on the run into the London session to test the 0.7065 areas, London made a slow recovery from the opening in London but never managed more than a test towards the 0.7090 level before NYK sellers moved in the market drifted through to the London close saw the market make the lows testing the 0.7055 areas before rising only to the 0.7070 level for the close.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1210 level the early sellers managed to test the figure level and although the market tested through the level on several occasions it was only minor and the figure remained the base line through to the London session with only PPI numbers that look decidedly weak the market increased the low through to the 1.1190 level before returning again to the 1.1200 level and a slow drift through to the NYK opening again testing a little above the 1.1210 level before being slow sold lower through the early part of the NYK session to make the lows around the 1.1185 area, London close saw some quick buying and the Euro pushing back above the figure area and triggering some weak stops on a test to the 1.1215 level at a stretch before settling into a quiet run to the close just above the figure.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Monetary base YoY A 3.80% | C 4.40% | P 4.60%

AUD       Building approvals MoM Feb A 19.10% | C -1.80% | P 2.50% | R 2.30%

AUD       RBA Rate decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%

CHF        CPI MoM Mar A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%

CHF        CPI YoY Mar A 0.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.60%

GBP       Construction PMI Mar A 49.7 | C 49.7 | P 49.5

EUR        Eurozone PPI MoM Feb A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.40% | R 0.30%

EUR        Eurozone PPI YoY Feb A 3.00% | C 3.10% | P 3.00% | R 2.90%

USD       Durable Goods orders Feb (P) A -1.60% | C -1.20% | P 0.30%

USD       Durables ex transportation Feb (P) A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P -0.20%

 

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.