Daily FX Market Commentary

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 112.017 | EURUSD 1.12992 | AUDUSD 0.71719 | NZDUSD 0.67615 | USDCAD 1.33276 | USDCHF 1.00267 | GBPUSD 1.3071 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13144 | 1.13017

USDJPY                 112.096 | 111.921

GBPUSD               1.31025 | 1.30763

USDCHF               1.00278 | 1.00173

AUDUSD              0.71798 | 0.7164

USDCAD               1.33411 | 1.33205

NZDUSD               0.67829 | 0.67649

EURCHF                1.13400 | 1.13278

EURGBP               0.86440 | 0.86336

EURJPY                 126.721 | 126.539

For Today

  • GBP: Opening slightly higher the market held quietly through to the Tokyo session in the 1.3070-80 areas before starting a slow rise through the Asian session to push through the 1.3100 levels before holding quietly just below the figure, Topside congestion through to the 1.3140 levels and likely to increase on any push above the 1.3150 level with limited potential for a break through the 1.3200 areas, with stronger offers remaining above the level. downside bids light through to the 1.3050 areas with limited congestion and increasing into the 1.3000-1.2980 level with stronger bids not really expected until closer to the 1.2900 levels and strong stops on a break through the 1.2880 level.
  • JPY: A tight range for the USDJPY with the market opening around the 111.95 areas and then slowly pushing higher on the move into the Tokyo session however, once the fix in Tokyo was over with the market drifted through the session to test from the early move to the 112.10 levels drifting through the opening levels to the 111.92 level into the grey hours. Topside offers remain on any push through to the 112.20 with possible weak stops through the level before further offers around the 1.1250 level absorb the move and slow the market on any push to the 1.1300 level, while there maybe stops on a break the market is likely to see stronger congestion through the level continuing through to the 1.1400 areas, downside bids light through to the 111.00 area with congestion in the area and through to the 110.50 level before any weakness appears and the 110.00 becomes susceptible to a test with strong congestion on any dips.
  • AUD: Very tight range for the Oz with the market trading around the 0.7170 levels testing early in the session to the 0.7180 level before drifting to the lows through the first half of Tokyo to test the 0.7165 level and establishing the range for the day, the second half of the session saw the market again testing the highs but drifting to the grey hours around the opening levels. Topside offers through to the 0.7200-20 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the market seeing limited congestion on a move through to the 0.7250 areas limited congestion through to 0.7280 where the offers are likely to appear on any break through the 73cents area and increase on a move through to the 0.7350 areas. Downside bids likely to be congestive around the 71 cents level but limited withy better bids appearing closer to the 0.7000-20 areas increasing in size the low you go in that area, stronger stops possible on a break through the 0.6980-70 areas before congestion moves in around the 0.6950 areas.
  • EUR: Slow rise from the opening around the 1.1300 area and pushing slowly into the mid-teens before drifting a little back to the 1.1310 level for the move into the grey hours. Topside congestion through to the 1.1320 level and a solid push towards the 1.1350 level could see weak stops appearing and opening a test through to the 1.1400 area if 1.1360 is pushed through, congestion likely to appear around that 1.1400 areas and stronger offers possibly on a push through towards the 1.1450 level the highs of last month. Downside bids light but congestive through to the 1.1200 level with better bids likely in that area with weak stops on a break below the 1.1180 level opening a test into the 1.1140-60 areas an further congestion then appearing and increasing into the 1.1100 areas.

 

 

Overnight News

USD:

US waters down demand, China axe subsidies in push for trade deal – sources – CNBC

Mnuchin: US/China trade talks close to final round – US press

Mnuchin: trade deal will have real enforcement on both sides

CNY:

Foreigners dump the most Chinese A shares in 6 months – BBG

NZD:

NZ Mar services PSI at 52.9 expanding at its slowest rate since 2012

AUD:

NAB bid to stop meltdown in mortgage broker business – AFR

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

GBP       Rightmove House Prices M/M Apr A 1.10% | P 0.40%

06:30     CHF        Producer & Import Prices M/M Mar C 0.20% | P 0.20%

06:30     CHF        Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Mar C -0.20% | P -0.70%

12:30     USD       Empire State Manufacturing Index Apr C 8 | P 3.7

14:30     CAD       BoC Business Outlook Survey

20:00     USD       Net Long-term TIC Flows (USD Feb C -18.2B | P -7.2B

 

Weekend News

 

EUR:

Italy nears cliff edge as we obsess on Brexit – Telegraph

ECB model suggests eurozone growth could slow further – BBG

Draghi, in rave move, sounds concern over Fed’s independence – BBG

CHF:

SNB’s Jordan says option to lower rates remains on table

CNY/USD:

IMF warns of potential downside risks from China-US trade deal

GBP:

Tories face 60 seat loss amid Brexit backlash as Corbyn bound for no’s 10 – Telegraph

USD:

US Fed reserve has weakened stocks and US growth, Trump claims – Telegraph

NZD:

NZ’s Ardern aims to fix construction sector with accord – BBG

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Mar A 51.9 | P 53.7

AUD       RBA Financial Stability Review

CNY        Trade Balance (USD) Mar A 32.6B | C 8.1B | P 4.1B

CNY        Exports Y/Y Mar A 14.20% | C 7.70% | P -20.70%

CNY        Imports Y/Y Mar A -7.60% | C -0.10% | P -5.20%

CNY        Trade Balance CNY Mar A 221B | C 2B | P 34B

CNY        Exports Y/Y CNY Mar A 21.30% | C 5.80% | P -16.60%

CNY        Imports Y/Y CNY Mar A -1.80% | C 1.00% | P -0.30%

EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Feb A -0.20% | C -0.60% | P 1.40% | R 1.90%

USD       Import Price Index M/M Mar A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.60% | R 1.00%

USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment Apr (P) A 96.9 | C 98.3 | P 98.4

 

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