Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 112.012 | EURUSD 1.12808 | AUDUSD 0.71754 | NZDUSD 0.67578 | USDCAD 1.33501 | USDCHF 1.00786 | GBPUSD 1.30487 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13044 | 1.12787

USDJPY                 112.166 | 111.921

GBPUSD               1.30608 | 1.30325

USDCHF               1.00810 | 1.0070

AUDUSD              0.72064 | 0.71532

USDCAD               1.33723 | 1.33418

NZDUSD               0.67754 | 0.66669

EURCHF                1.13837 | 1.13693

EURGBP               0.86619 | 0.8647

EURJPY                 126.618 | 126.284

For Today

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.3050 level the market dipped on the opening testing the 1.3040 level holding above the level for a couple of hours before again dipping through to the low 1.3030 area and then starting a slow steady climb through the balance of the session to push through to the 1.3060 highs for the move into the grey hour, Topside light congestion through the 1.3100 level with stronger congestion increasing into the 1.3140 levels and likely to increase on any push above the 1.3150 level with limited potential for a break through the 1.3200 areas, with stronger offers remaining above the level. downside bids cleared through to the 1.3050 areas with congestion increasing into the 1.3000-1.2980 level with stronger bids not really expected until closer to the 1.2900 levels and strong stops on a break through the 1.2880 level.
  • JPY: Opening quietly around the 112.00 level and bouncing quickly higher on the CNY numbers the market pushed through to the 112.15 level before doubts about the veracity of 6.40% rise saw the USDJPY back and testing through the opening levels to hold around the 111.95 level through to the grey hour, Topside offers remain on any push through to the 112.20 with possible weak stops through the level before further offers around the 1.1250 level absorb the move and slow the market on any push to the 1.1300 level, while there maybe stops on a break the market is likely to see stronger congestion through the level continuing through to the 1.1400 areas, downside bids light through to the 111.00 area with congestion in the area and through to the 110.50 level before any weakness appears and the 110.00 becomes susceptible to a test with strong congestion on any dips.
  • AUD: Dipping a little from the opening around the 0.7175 level the market tested into the 0.7150’s and held quietly through into the Tokyo session with some stronger Oz buying moving in during mid-Tokyo to run the market quickly through to the 72 cents area and the high around the 0.7205 level before drifting around to hold around the 0.7190 level. Topside offers through to the 0.7200-20 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the market seeing limited congestion on a move through to the 0.7250 areas limited congestion through to 0.7280 where the offers are likely to appear on any break through the 73cents area and increase on a move through to the 0.7350 areas. Downside bids likely to be congestive around the 71 cents level but limited withy better bids appearing closer to the 0.7000-20 areas increasing in size the low you go in that area, stronger stops possible on a break through the 0.6980-70 areas before congestion moves in around the 0.6950 areas.
  • EUR: Light USD weakness through mid-Tokyo saw the market in Euro start a slow and steady rise from the opening around the 1.1285 area to push through towards the 1.1305 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside congestion through to the 1.1320 level and a solid push towards the 1.1350 level could see weak stops appearing and opening a test through to the 1.1400 area if 1.1360 is pushed through, congestion likely to appear around that 1.1400 areas and stronger offers possibly on a push through towards the 1.1450 level the highs of last month. Downside bids light but congestive through to the 1.1200 level with better bids likely in that area with weak stops on a break below the 1.1180 level opening a test into the 1.1140-60 areas and further congestion then appearing and increasing into the 1.1100 areas.

 

 

Overnight News

AUD:

Oz outperformance at risk as Iron ore slides BBG

NZD:

NZ will not proceed with Capital gains tax Ardern says BBG

Ardern: We will target land bankers and property speculation BBG

Ardern: Won’t seek capital gains tax under my leadership

Ardern: Couldn’t form consensus for capital gains tax

RNBZ Core inflation gauge holds steady at 1.7% in Q1

CNY:

China’s growth story has plenty of holes BBG

USD/JPY:

US-Japan trade talks conclude with agriculture focus Singapore BT

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       CPI Q/Q Q1 A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.10%

NZD       CPI Y/Y Q1 A 1.50% | C 1.70% | P 1.90%

JPY         Trade Balance (JPY) Mar A -0.18T | C -0.30T | P 0.12T | R 0.03T

AUD       Westpac Leading Index M/M Mar A 0.20% | P 0.00%

CNY        GDP Y/Y Q1 A 6.40% | C 6.30% | P 6.40%

CNY        Industrial Production YTD Y/Y Mar A 8.50% | C 5.60% | P 5.30%

CNY        Retail Sales YTD Y/Y Mar A 8.70% | C 8.30% | P 8.20%

CNY        Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Mar A 6.30% | C 6.30% | P 6.10%

CNY        Surveyed Jobless Rate Mar A 5.20% | P 5.30%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Feb (F) A 0.70% | C 1.40% | P 1.40%

08:00     EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Feb C 33.2B | P 36.8B

08:30     GBP       CPI M/M Mar C 0.20% | P 0.50%

08:30     GBP       CPI Y/Y Mar C 2.00% | P 1.90%

08:30     GBP       Core CPI Y/Y Mar C 1.90% | P 1.80%

08:30     GBP       RPI M/M Mar C 0.20% | P 0.70%

08:30     GBP       RPI Y/Y Mar C 2.60% | P 2.50%

08:30     GBP       PPI Input M/M Mar C 0.50% | P 0.60%

08:30     GBP       PPI Input Y/Y Mar C 4.10% | P 3.70%

08:30     GBP       PPI Output M/M Mar C 0.30% | P 0.10%

08:30     GBP       PPI Output Y/Y Mar C 2.20% | P 2.20%

08:30     GBP       PPI Output Core M/M Mar C 0.10% | P 0.10%

08:30     GBP       PPI Output Core Y/Y Mar C 2.20% | P 2.20%

08:30     GBP       House Price Index Y/Y Feb C 1.30% | P 1.70%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Feb C 16.8B | P 17.0B

09:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI M/M Mar C 0.30% | P 0.30%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Y/Y Mar (F) C 1.40% | P 1.50%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Mar (F) C 0.80% | P 0.80%

12:30     CAD       International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Feb C 3.50B | P -4.25B

12:30     CAD       CPI M/M Mar C 0.60% | P 0.70%

12:30     CAD       CPI Y/Y Mar C 1.30% | P 1.50%

12:30     CAD       CPI Core – Common Y/Y Mar P 1.80%

12:30     CAD       CPI Core – Median Y/Y Mar P 1.80%

12:30     CAD       CPI Core – Trim Y/Y Mar P 1.90%

12:30     USD       Trade Balance (USD) Feb C -53.5B | P -51.1B

14:00     USD       Wholesale Inventories M/M Feb C 0.40% | P 1.20%

14:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P 7.0M

18:00     USD       Federal Reserve Beige Book

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening towards its highs and while volumes were fair the movement was limited, pushing lightly through  the 1.3100 level the market held through to the RBA minutes before dropping through to the 1.3080 level and finding the low for the Asian session, returning to a 1.3090-1.3100 range through into the London session and extending a little through the 1.3080 level but holding around the level through into the NYK session, a slight rise in claims numbers and a revision to weekly earnings having little impact, US numbers missed there targets but had no impact on Cable with the market slipping steadily through to the 1.3050 areas and holding quietly around those levels through to the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY remained moribund with the market slowly drifting from the opening around the 112.05-00 area and testing through to the 111.95 level for the move to the grey hour, a dip through to the 111.85 areas saw the market basing through early London on that level before steadily rising through towards the opening levels for the move into the NYK session and then quietly ranging around the 112.00 level through to the close.
  • AUD: Moving quietly around the 0.7170 areas and topping in early Tokyo to the 0.7175 level before heading into a dovish RBA minutes and testing too the 0.7140 area before stabilising and holding around the 0.7150 level deep into the London session, the move through to the NYK session saw the buyers reappearing as the market took a different view of the RBA statement and pushed back to the opening level and rising slow from there in the NYK session pushing lightly towards the 0.7180 area and holding in a tight range through to the close.
  • EUR: I’d like to say the Euro was a little more choppy however, that being so the market remained in a tight range through the day, with Tokyo only managing to push through to the 1.1305 areas before dropping back on the RBA Minutes dipping quickly through to the 1.1295 level before finding buyers and a slow rise through to the grey hours and the opening levels, early London chopped around the 1.1305 level taking the market into the low teens to make the highs for the day before dropping back on EU commentary on Germany’s growing profits and lack of spending to spread the joy around the EU, in the mean time ZEW numbers and the market recovered from the 1.1280 areas to move through to towards the highs before again dropping on the opening in NYK and testing steadily through to the lows again and unable to regain the 1.1290 area through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       RBA Minutes

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index M/M Feb A -0.60% | C -0.20% | P 0.40% | R 0.60%

GBP       Jobless Claims Change Mar A 28.3K | C 17.3K | P 27.0K | R 26.7K

GBP       Claimant Count Rate Mar A 3.00% | P 2.90%

GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Feb A 3.90% | C 4.00% | P 3.90%

GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Feb A 3.50% | C 3.50% | P 3.40% | R 3.50%

GBP       Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y Feb A 3.40% | C 3.40% | P 3.40% | R 3.50%

EUR        German ZEW Economic Sentiment Apr A 3.1 | C 0.5 | P -3.6

EUR        German ZEW Current Situation Apr A 5.5 | C 8.5 | P 11.1

EUR        Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Apr A 4.5 | C 1.2 | P -2.5

CAD       International Securities Transactions (CAD) Feb A 12.05B | C 27.34B | P 28.40B | R 28.59B

CAD       Manufacturing Sales M/M Feb A -0.20% | C -0.10% | P 1.00% | R 0.80%

USD       Industrial Production M/M Mar A -0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.10%

USD       Capacity Utilization Mar A 78.80% | C 79.20% | P 78.20% | R 79.00%

USD       NAHB Housing Market Index Apr A 63 | C 64 | P 62

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.