Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111984 | EURUSD 1.12316 | AUDUSD 0.71501 | NZDUSD 0.66792 | USDCAD 1.33778 | USDCHF 1.0155 | GBPUSD 1.29908 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12422 | 1.12324

USDJPY                 112.009 | 111.898

GBPUSD               1.29965 | 1.29866

USDCHF               1.01534 | 1.01445

AUDUSD              0.71525 | 0.71442

USDCAD               1.33858 | 1.33657

NZDUSD               0.66909 | 0.66819

EURCHF                1.14092 | 1.14014

EURGBP               0.86559 | 0.86448

EURJPY                 125.857 | 125.723

For Today

  • GBP: A very quiet session, which you would expect with bank holidays around the world, opening around the 1.2990 level the market held in a very narrow range through to the grey hour, and possibly likely to remain that way through the day. Topside light congestion through the 1.3100 level with stronger congestion increasing into the 1.3140 levels and likely to increase on any push above the 1.3150 level with limited potential for a break through the 1.3200 areas, with stronger offers remaining above the level. downside bids cleared through to the 1.3050 areas with congestion increasing into the 1.2980 level with stronger bids not really expected until closer to the 1.2900 levels and strong stops on a break through the 1.2880 level.
  • JPY: A quiet move through into the Tokyo session breaching the 112.00 level lightly before dropping back on the BoJ news testing through to the 111.90 level and holding through to the grey hour, Topside offers remain on any push through to the 112.20 with possible weak stops through the level before further offers around the 1.1250 level absorb the move and slow the market on any push to the 1.1300 level, while there maybe stops on a break the market is likely to see stronger congestion through the level continuing through to the 1.1400 areas, downside bids light through to the 111.00 area with congestion in the area and through to the 110.50 level before any weakness appears and the 110.00 becomes susceptible to a test with strong congestion on any dips.
  • AUD: Trading quietly around the opening level and barely scraping a 5 pip range through to the grey hour, Topside offers through to the 0.7200-20 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the market seeing limited congestion on a move through to the 0.7250 areas limited congestion through to 0.7280 where the offers are likely to appear on any break through the 73cents area and increase on a move through to the 0.7350 areas. Downside bids likely to be congestive around the 71 cents level but limited withy better bids appearing closer to the 0.7000-20 areas increasing in size the low you go in that area, stronger stops possible on a break through the 0.6980-70 areas before congestion moves in around the 0.6950 areas.
  • EUR: A slightly larger range than most of the pairs with the opening just above the 1.1230 level and a slow rise just through the 1.1240 area to make the high of the day before dipping back and holding quietly around the 1.1235 level to the grey hour, Topside congestion through to the 1.1320 level and a solid push towards the 1.1350 level could see weak stops appearing and opening a test through to the 1.1400 area if 1.1360 is pushed through, congestion likely to appear around that 1.1400 areas and stronger offers possibly on a push through towards the 1.1450 level the highs of last month. Downside bids light but congestive through to the 1.1200 level with better bids likely in that area with weak stops on a break below the 1.1180 level opening a test into the 1.1140-60 areas and further congestion then appearing and increasing into the 1.1100 areas.

 

Overnight News

JPY:

BoJ cuts buying of 10-25yr bonds second time in two months

Japanese inflation higher but BoJ still in a bind

Japanese firms want tax hike to proceed, but with urge more stimulus to soften economic blow

GBP:

The Tories are feeling the heat as voters desert them in droves for the Brexit Party

CNY:

WTO finds fault with farm import policy – BBG

EUR:

If Germany is Europe’s growth engine, the EU’s in trouble BBG

USD/KRW:

  1. Korea urges Trump to drop[ Pompeo from talks, US plays down weapons test

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Mar A 0.80% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%

12:30     USD       Housing Starts Mar C 1.23M | P 1.16M

12:30     USD       Building Permits Mar C 1.30M | P 1.29M

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet start to the day with the market opening around the 1.3040 level and holding around that level through to deep into the Tokyo session before pushing through to test lightly through the 1.3050 level into the grey hour, poor manufacturing numbers throughout Europe saw the Cable following the fall and testing through to the 1.3010 level before good retail sales numbers pushed the market higher again however, it was short lived and the market drifted around the lows deep into the NYK session before eventually breaking through the level to test into the 1.2980 areas and holding through to the close just short of the 1.3000 area.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened around the 112.05 level and held quietly through into the early part of Tokyo and the light fixing supply seemed to upset the cart and the USDJPY saw a steady decline through to the grey hour where the market held briefly around the 111.85 area, the fall in the EUR saw the cross JPY being sold back through to the 111.77 level to make the lows, the market bounced a little off the lows and then held based around the 111.90 areas deep through the day rising quickly to the 112.00 level on strong US retail sales and then holding just below the figure area through to the close.
  • AUD: A slow drift from the opening saw the market dipping just through the 0.7170 level for the move into the Employment numbers, stronger numbers again saw a spike towards the 72cents level before dropping immediately back and holding around the 0.7180 level through to the grey hour, the market drifted off into the London session testing through to the 0.7160 level and ranging around the level for the move into the NYK period, a belayed reaction to the USD push higher saw the Oz dipping through to the 0.7140 level just after the close in London and then a slow grind higher through to the close.
  • EUR: Asia was reasonably slow with the market opening just short of the 1.1300 levels and then drifting through to midsession in Tokyo testing the 1.1290 level before recovering the opening levels and pushing just north of the 1.1300 level to make the highs, weak PMI numbers across manufacturing in Europe saw the Euro drop quickly to the 1.1270 level and then after a brief pause move again triggering stops on a test to the 1.1240 level before holding for the move into the NYK session ranging just above that level,

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Q1 A -1 | P 1

AUD       Employment Change Mar A 25.7K | C 15.2K | P 4.6K

AUD       Unemployment Rate Mar A 5.00% | C 5.00% | P 4.90%

EUR        German PPI M/M Mar A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.10%

EUR        German PPI Y/Y Mar A 2.40% | C 2.70% | P 2.60%

CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Mar A 3.18B | C 2.87B | P 3.13B | R 2.94B

EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) A 49.6 | C 50 | P 49.7

EUR        France Services PMI Apr (P) A 50.5 | C 49.8 | P 49.1

EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) A 44.5 | C 45.2 | P 44.1

EUR        Germany Services PMI Apr (P) A 55.6 | C 55 | P 55.4

EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) A 47.8 | C 48.1 | P 47.5

EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Apr (P) A 52.5 | C 53.1 | P 53.3

GBP       Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel M/M Mar A 1.10% | C -0.40% | P 0.40% | R 0.60%

GBP       Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Mar A 6.70% | C 4.60% | P 4.00%

GBP       Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M Mar A 1.20% | C -0.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.40%

GBP       Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Mar A 6.20% | C 4.00% | P 3.80%

CAD       Retail Sales M/M Feb A 0.80% | C 0.40% | P -0.30% | R -0.40%

CAD       Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Feb A 0.60% | C 0.20% | P 0.10% | R -0.60%

USD       Retail Sales Advance M/M Mar A 1.60% | C 0.80% | P -0.20%

USD       Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Mar A 1.20% | C 0.70% | P -0.40%

USD       Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Apr A 8.5 | C 11 | P 13.7

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (APR 13) A 192K | C 207K | P 196K | R 197K

USD       US Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) A 52.4 | C 53 | P 52.4

USD       US Services PMI Apr (P) A 52.9 | C 55 | P 55.3

USD       Leading Index Mar A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%

USD       Business Inventories Feb A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.80%

USD       Natural Gas Storage A 92B | C 82B | P 25B

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.