Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.86 | EURUSD 1.12276 | AUDUSD 0.71019 | NZDUSD 0.66467 | USDCAD 1.34231 | USDCHF 1.02015 | GBPUSD 1.2938 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12245 | 1.12087

USDJPY                 111.984 | 111.763

GBPUSD               1.29429 | 1.29299

USDCHF               1.02100 | 1.01985

AUDUSD              0.71015 | 0.7028

USDCAD               1.34564 | 1.34273

NZDUSD               0.68570 | 0.66142

EURCHF                1.14515 | 1.14414

EURGBP               0.86787 | 0.86658

EURJPY                 125.604 | 125.301

For Today

  • GBP: A quiet move through the Asian session, opening around the 12930 level the market pushed slowly through the 1.2940 level into the Tokyo session but with little conviction before drifting back to hold just above the 1.2930 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside light congestion through the 1.3000 level and sentimental offers only through to the 1.3100 area, stronger congestion increasing into the 1.3140 levels and likely to increase on any push above the 1.3150 level with limited potential for a break through the 1.3200 areas, with stronger offers remaining above the level. downside bids into the 1.2900 areas likely to provide decent support before a break through the 1.2880 level triggering weak stops for a move through to the stronger bids around the 1.2800 level with limited sentimental bids in 1.2850. a push through the 1.2800 area likely to open the downside to a larger move with 1.2760 being the start of the year ranges and limited support.
  • JPY: Gyration around the opening level with the market slowly moving into the Tokyo session before dipping a little to the 111.80 areas, weaker Oz helped the USDJPY higher and the market made a solitary move towards the 112.00 levels before drifting back again and triggering some weak selling through the lows to test towards the 111.75 level before returning to the opening levels for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers remain on any push through to the 112.20 with possible weak stops through the level before further offers around the 112.50 level absorb the move and slow the market on any push to the 113.00 level, downside bids light through to the 111.00 area with congestion in the area and through to the 110.50 level before any weakness appears and the 110.00 becomes susceptible to a test with strong congestion on any dips.
  • AUD: Opening around the 71 cents levels saw very little movement to the topside and the market drifting through to drop quickly once the Oz CPI numbers were analysed falling back through to the 0.7040 before drifting through to the grey hours unable to find any traction and pushing into the grey hour around the 0.7030 lows. Downside bids through the current lows and likely to increase into the 70 cents level with weak stops then appearing with sentimental bids through the 0.6950 level and likely to leave the downside vulnerable to a larger move with a break of the 69cents level opening the market to the 68 cents level. Topside offers light through to the 71 cents level and the market likely to see weak stops on a push through the 0.7120 area and opening the market to a possible short squeeze and stronger offers into the 0.7180-0.7200 levels.
  • EUR: The Euro drifted from the opening with the market eventually basing on the 1.1210 areas and holding quietly in the 1.1215 areas into the grey hour, Topside congestion through the 1.1280-1.1320 level and a solid push towards the 1.1350 level could see weak stops appearing and opening a test through to the 1.1400 area if 1.1360 is pushed through, congestion likely to appear around that 1.1400 areas and stronger offers possibly on a push through towards the 1.1450 level the highs of last month. Downside bids light but congestive through to the 1.1200 level with better bids likely in that area with weak stops on a break below the 1.1180 level opening a test into the 1.1140-60 areas and further congestion then appearing and increasing into the 1.1100 areas.

 

 

Overnight News

EUR:

Is Winter coming to the EU project syndicate

USD:

USD hegemony is forcing the world to join Trump’s oil blockade against Iran Telegraph

GBP:

PM May defies security warnings of Ministers and the US to allow Huawei to help build Britain’s 5G network Telegraph

AUD:

NAB joins lending standards crackdown MB

CNY:

Swine flu a crisis for China’s pig industry SMP

NZD:

The new risk to the big four’s NZ dominance – AFR

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Corporate Service Price Y/Y Mar A 1.10% | C 1.00% | P 1.10%

AUD       CPI Q/Q Q1 A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.50%

AUD       CPI Y/Y Q1 A 1.30% | C 1.50% | P 1.80%

AUD       CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q1 A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%

AUD       CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q1 A 1.60% | C 1.70% | P 1.80%

AUD       CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q1 A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%

AUD       CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q1 A 1.20% | C 1.60% | P 1.70% | R 1.60%

JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P -0.20% | R 0.00%

JPY         Leading Index CI Feb (F) A 97.1 | P 97.4

08:00     EUR        German IFO Business Climate Apr C 99.9 | P 99.6

08:00     EUR        German IFO Expectations Apr C 96 | P 95.6

08:00     EUR        German IFO Current Assessment Apr C 103.6 | P 103.8

08:00     EUR        ECB Economic Bulletin

08:30     GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Mar C -0.8B | P -0.7B

14:00     CAD       BoC Rate Decision C 1.75% | P 1.75%

14:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P -1.4M

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A slow range through the Asian session initially holding the opening levels deep into the Tokyo session testing the 1.2975 level a couple of times before moving into the grey hour and a slow rise from the lows in a steady climb through to mid-morning in London testing to the 1.3020 level before dipping away and a slow drift through to the NYK opening, NYK were strong sellers and the market dropped quickly through to the 1.2950 level before finding some limited buying before dipping for the second time with talk in London of May being forced out however, its not a new story but an ongoing saga, the market based along the 1.2930 areas for the rest of the session unable to push back to the 1.2950 area and finishing towards those lows.
  • JPY: A very quiet start to the session pushing into the Tokyo testing towards the 112.00 level before quickly falling away with commentary from Maeda and the market testing to the 111.65 level before starting a slow rise through to the opening levels into the grey hour, the market then held around the 111.85 areas for the move into the NYK session pushing quickly from the opening and likely testing through the 112.00 level before dropping steadily back through to the 111.80 and a slow range to the close.
  • AUD: A long steady slide lower having made early highs to the 0.7140 area, JPY buying saw the early move lower although the market held the 0.7120 areas initially before slowly edging through the level on the move into the grey hour, holding in early London just above the figure level before moving into the NYK session and slipping to its lows over the first couple of hours in NYK testing the 0.7075 area before a slow recovery to the 71 cents area.
  • EUR: Opening just off the 1.1260 highs the market drifted into the Tokyo session with minor selling of EURJPY cross seeing the market pushing below the 1.1250 level but unable to move to far from the level trading into the grey hour around the level, the move through into the London session saw an early test to the highs again but a slow drift from there into the NYK session saw USD buying dropping quickly through to the 1.1210 level holding briefly before dipping through the 1.1200 level to make the lows into the low 1.1190’s before bouncing back above the 1.1210 level and moving quietly through to the end of London before slowly rising through to the mid 1.1220’s for the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

CAD       Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Feb A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.60% | R 0.40%

USD       House Price Index M/M Feb A 0.30% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr (A) A -7.9 | C -7 | P -7.2

USD       New Home Sales Mar A 692K | C 647K | P 667K

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.