Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 112.193 | EURUSD 1.1152 | AUDUSD 0.70141 | NZDUSD 0.6584 | USDCAD 1.34965 | USDCHF 1.02057 | GBPUSD 1.29014 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.11603 | 1.11449

USDJPY                 112.239 | 111.848

GBPUSD               1.29168 | 1.28973

USDCHF               1.02118 | 1.01984

AUDUSD              0.70229 | 0.70044

USDCAD               1.35010 | 1.3484

NZDUSD               0.66019 | 0.65856

EURCHF                1.13869 | 1.13782

EURGBP               0.86468 | 0.86372

EURJPY                 125.230 | 124.899

For Today

  • GBP: A very quiet session for the Cable opening just above the 1.2900 line and remaining there for the most part with a couple of slips below but generally pushing quietly to the highs just above the 1.2915 area before holding into the grey hours almost unchanged. Topside light congestion through the 1.3000 level and sentimental offers only through to the 1.3100 area, stronger congestion increasing into the 1.3140 levels and likely to increase on any push above the 1.3150 level with limited potential for a break through the 1.3200 areas, with stronger offers remaining above the level. downside bids into the 1.2900 areas likely to provide decent support before a break through the 1.2880 level triggering weak stops for a move through to the stronger bids around the 1.2800 level with limited sentimental bids in 1.2850. a push through the 1.2800 area likely to open the downside to a larger move with 1.2760 being the start of the year ranges and limited support.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened a little weaker around the 112.10 areas and traded weakly around the level through into the Tokyo session with a slight rise into the fixing to top just above the 112.20 areas before starting a slow but steady drift through to the 111.90 area and moving into the grey hours around the 112.00 level. Topside offers cleared through the 112.20 with further offers around the 112.50 level absorb the move and slow the market on any push to the 113.00 level, downside bids light through to the 111.00 area with congestion in the area and through to the 110.50 level before any weakness appears and the 110.00 becomes susceptible to a test with strong congestion on any dips.
  • AUD: A slow move through the session with one solitary attempt to the 70 cents level before rising and holding around the 0.7020 level on a limited news day, Downside bids through the current lows and likely to increase into the 70 cents level with weak stops then appearing with sentimental bids through the 0.6950 level and likely to leave the downside vulnerable to a larger move with a break of the 69cents level opening the market to the 68 cents level. Topside offers light through to the 71 cents level and the market likely to see weak stops on a push through the 0.7120 area and opening the market to a possible short squeeze and stronger offers into the 0.7180-0.7200 levels.
  • EUR: A very quiet range around the 1.1150 areas with a couple of brief moves to the 1.1160 level before drifting back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hour, topside light offers through the 1.1200 area and likely to be a little stronger through the level with weak stops possibly through the 1.1220 area for a test to the 1.1240 area however, the offers are likely to increase on any test towards the 1.1280 level and through into the 1.1300-20 area, downside bids through to the 111.20 level are likely to be more sentimental than anything else with weak stops joined with possibly break out sellers through the 1.1080 areas opening a deeper move.

 

Overnight News

AUD:

RBA Could cut interest rate four times by year end – DJC

ANZ joins election rate cut club – ANZ

The worlds most successful economy is about to vote left – BBG

CNY:

Li: China’s economy still facing downward pressure – BBG

Li: China willing to increase cooperation with IMF

Untested China bond structure sparks market angst after default -BBG

GBP:

BoE to refrain from rate hike until Aug 2020 – Think tank

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         BOJ Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%

10:00     GBP       CBI Trends Total Orders Apr C 3 | P 1

12:30     USD       Durable Goods Orders Mar (P) C 0.70% | P -1.60%

12:30     USD       Durables Ex Transportation Mar (P) C 0.20% | P -0.10%

12:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (APR 20) C 199K | P 192K

14:30     USD       Natural Gas Storage P 92B

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A steady day for the Cable with the market holding in a tight range through the Asian session around the opening 1.2935 area with brief attempts to move above the 1.2940 level before dipping into the grey hour, the market tested through to the 1.2915 level but started a slow recovery through to deep into the NYK session forcing above the 1.2960 eventually but running out of impetus for the move to the London close and slowly slipping slowly through to the end of the IMM futures session testing lightly through to the 1.2890 area before recovering to hold quietly through to the close just above the figure level with much of the downward pressure on the day more a result of Euro weakness.
  • JPY: A very quiet session for the bulk of the day with the market holding from the opening around the 111.85 area and an increasing range around the level through to midsession before pushing towards the 112.00 area before heading into the grey hours barely holding the 111.75 area, the move through into the London session saw just as much movement and only in early NYK did either high or low come under threat with initial selling from the opening in NYK testing through to the 111.65 area before a steady push lower in EURUSD saw EURJPY selling moving in but the Euro leg doing the work and USDJPY forced through towards the 112.40 area in a long steady push before dropping back quickly to the 112.20 level for the close and minor profit taking.
  • AUD: Opening around the 71cents level and a slow drift through to the CPI numbers holding the 0.7090 area, the release took time to absorb the implications however, the market eventually dipped and quickly pushed through the support around the 0.7050 level and held through to the London session on the 0.7030 level, the market ranged around the level through into the NYK session before drifting back through to the Sydney opening to test the 0.7005area before holding quietly around the 0.7015 to the close.
  • EUR: Euro’s drifted from the opening highs around the 1.1225 level testing into late Tokyo basing along the 1.1210 level to hold around the 1.1215 level for the move into the grey hour, early sellers tested the figure level lightly before slowly pushing higher and into the opening levels, IFO numbers did little to help the market and the Euro dipped quickly through to the 1.1195 level before recovering and drifting steadily into the NYK session, NYK opened unimpressed by the IFO numbers or the general economic news selling the market to the 1.1180 level in a quick move, the recovery was steady recovery but really only setting the market up for another round of selling this time deeper and stronger pushing initially top the 1.1150 level holding ten dipping to the 1.1140 area before holding steady to the close just off the lows.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Corporate Service Price Y/Y Mar A 1.10% | C 1.00% | P 1.10%

AUD       CPI Q/Q Q1 A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.50%

AUD       CPI Y/Y Q1 A 1.30% | C 1.50% | P 1.80%

AUD       CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q1 A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%

AUD       CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q1 A 1.60% | C 1.70% | P 1.80%

AUD       CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q1 A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%

AUD       CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q1 A 1.20% | C 1.60% | P 1.70% | R 1.60%

JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P -0.20% | R 0.00%

JPY         Leading Index CI Feb (F) A 97.1 | P 97.4

EUR        German IFO Business Climate Apr A 99.2 | C 99.9 | P 99.6

EUR        German IFO Expectations Apr A 95.2 | C 96 | P 95.6

EUR        German IFO Current Assessment Apr 103.3 | C 103.6 | P 103.8

EUR        ECB Economic Bulletin

GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Mar A 0.8B | C -0.8B | P -0.7B | R -0.5B

CAD       BoC Rate Decision A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.75%

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 5.5M | C 0.9M | P -1.4M

 

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