Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.554 | EURUSD 1.11448 | AUDUSD 0.70395 | NZDUSD 0.65596 | USDCAD 1.34849 | USDCHF 1.01979 | GBPUSD 1.29155 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.11601 | 1.11451

USDJPY                 111.641 | 111.572

GBPUSD               1.29396 | 1.29169

USDCHF               1.01986 | 1.01875

AUDUSD              0.70579 | 0.70394

USDCAD               1.34624 | 1.34505

NZDUSD               0.66804 | 0.66574

EURCHF                1.13714 | 1.13651

EURGBP               0.86311 | 0.86239

EURJPY                 124.613 | 124.456

For Today

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.2920 areas and with both China and Japan on bank holidays for the next few days the range tested through to the 1.2915 level before rising to the 1.2930 level on limited liquidity before settling down to range through deep into the Tokyo period holding around the 1.2920 level, USD eventually started to drift a little and the market slowly pushed above the 1.2930 area and moved into the grey hour around the 1.2935 level. Topside light congestion through to the 1.3000 level and sentimental offers only through to the 1.3100 area, stronger congestion increasing into the 1.3140 levels and likely to increase on any push above the 1.3150 level with limited potential for a break through the 1.3200 areas, with stronger offers remaining above the level. downside bids into the 1.2900 areas likely to provide decent support before a break through the 1.2880 level triggering weak stops for a move through to the stronger bids around the 1.2800 level with limited sentimental bids in 1.2850. a push through the 1.2800 area likely to open the downside to a larger move with 1.2760 being the start of the year ranges and limited support.
  • JPY: A very quiet day as you’d expect with the market opening around Fridays closing area and then trading around the 111.60 level through to the grey hour with the market moving in less than a 10 pip range throughout, Topside offers cleared through the 112.20 with further offers around the 112.50 level absorb the move and slow the market on any push to the 113.00 level, downside bids light through to the 111.00 area with congestion in the area and through to the 110.50 level before any weakness appears and the 110.00 becomes susceptible to a test with strong congestion on any dips.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7040 levels the market slowly rose through the session pushing through to the 0.7060 area for the move into the grey hour, with very little volume with the bank holidays, downside stops likely on a dip through the 0.6980 area and then stronger support on a mo0ve through to the 0.6950 area possible however, the support is dated to the slow ranges from 2016 and suspect at best, with a push through the sentimental levels open until possibly stronger bids into the 68 cents area, topside offers likely to be weak through the 0.7040-60 area and increasing only on a move through the 71 cents areas and increasing from there with stronger resistance increasing the further the market moves towards the 72 cents level.
  • EUR: A slow move through the session holding around the 1.1150 areas deep into the Asian session before lifting off the 1.1145 area and then slowly rising through towards the 1.1160 level to move into the grey hour holding quietly. downside bids into the 1.1120-1.1080 level is likely to see stronger stops likely to appear with some minor stops on the run to that level although some support on a dip through to the 1.1050 area it is possibly weak and the market will likely to run into stronger bids around the 1.1020-00 areas with a deeper move through that level, topside offers light through to the 1.1200 area with weak stops on a push through to the 1.1220 levels however, congestion likely to continue through to the 1.1260 level with stronger offers around that level and a small gap to the 1.1280 areas where increasing offers are likely to appear.

 

 

Overnight News

USD:

Trump’s new Nafta faces mounting resistance in Democratic house – DJ

World:

World trade volumes fall fastest in a decade – BBG

CNY:

China’s March manufacturing sector profits – 4.2%

AUD:

RBA rate cut a matter of when, not if – AFR

RBA weighs alternatives to a cut – AFR

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

 

08:00     EUR        Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Mar C 4.20% | P 4.30%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Apr C 0.49 | P 0.53

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr C 105 | P 105.5

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr C -2 | P -1.7

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Services Confidence Apr C 11.5 | P 11.3

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr (F) C -7.9 | P -7.9

12:30     USD       Personal Income Mar C 0.40% | P 0.20%

12:30     USD       Personal Spending Mar P 0.70%

12:30     USD       PCE Deflator M/M Mar P 0.30%

12:30     USD       PCE Deflator Y/Y Mar P 1.60%

12:30     USD       PCE Core M/M Mar P 0.10%

12:30     USD       PCE Core Y/Y Mar C 1.70% | P 1.80%

23:01     GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence Apr C -13 | P -13

 

Weekend news

Oil:

Iran warns could shut Hormus strait if tensions grow – PTI

CNY:

China’s Stimulus: can it save the world economy again – Telegraph

EUR:

Sanchez set to win in Spain but may need Catalan support – BFW

Spain’s People’s party gets 65 seats with 75% of votes counted – BFW

Spanish socialists get 127 seats – BFW

Berlin can do little for lagging lenders – WSJ

ECB’s Guindos: Cannot be super optimistic on Europe’s economy – BBG

Guindos: Recent evolution of Spanish economy very positive – BBG

Guindos: ECB will define conditions, pricing of TLTROS in June – BBG

Guindos: ECB has never discussed buying equities – BBG

Guindos: Unconventional monetary tools becoming more important – BBG

Guindos: Banking consolidation in Europe is going to be needed – BBG

Guindos: ECB not in favour or against Deutsche/Commerzbank deal – BBG

Guindos: Independence of Catalonia is total nonsense – BBG

Europe will be lucky to hit 1% growth in 2019 – BBG

Italian bonds set for relief rally as S&P refrains from downgrade – BBG

USD:

Foreign official accounts continue to sell treasuries – BBG

GBP:

UK Conservatives still seeking Brexit deal before EU elections – BBG

 

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A steady rise for the most part through the day, opening around the 1.2890 level the market slowly pushed through into the Tokyo session testing the 1.2900 before dipping a little into the Tokyo fix to hold the opening levels and jump late in the session to just above the 1.2900 levels holding through to the London session with the market then extending its range a little but generally holding a tight range with the market pushing above the 1.2910 areas, the move into the NYK session saw the market drop quickly to trigger some weak stops as US GDP numbers surprised however, even so the Cable started to recover from the 1.2875 area bouncing back to the 1.2910 level and then continuing a steady rise through to the 1.2940 area before slowing and drifting through to the close just below the 1.2920 area.
  • JPY: A slow drift through into the Tokyo session from the opening around the 111.60 area saw the 111.50 level before bouncing quickly through to the 111.80 areas and slowly drifting from the level through to the grey hour holding the 111.70 areas, the market moved into the London session slowly rising testing just above the 111.80 before the release of the US GDP number and a quick spike through to the 112.00 level before immediately dropping back and following through to the 111.60 level and a slow drift through to the 111.40 area to make the lows of the day, the market recovered somewhat as the JPY saw limited selling against the USD for the move to the weekend and the Golden week celebrations to come.
  • AUD: A slow quiet rise through the day, with the market lifting off the 0.7015 areas for the move into the Tokyo session pushing slowly through to the 0.7030 area and the move into London, early London bought slowly and the market moved through to the NYK session testing just through the 0.7040 level, US numbers saw the market dip initially before bouncing through to the 0.7050 level and a slow march to the 0.7060 area before drifting through the rest of the day to finish just around the 0.7040 levels.
  • EUR: A rather flat day for the Euro apart from the US GDP point, opening around the 1.1135 level and trading slowly through to test the 1.1125 area to make the lows in Asia and a slow rise and range around the 1.1135 level through to the grey hour, the move into the London session saw the market increase in range trading for the most part around the 1.1140 level testing towards the 1.1150 area and dipping to the 1.1130 before moving into the NYK session and the better than expected GDP numbers, the market moved lower initially on the GDP price index before quickly snapping higher from the 1.1110 area and quickly testing towards the 1.1160 level, the market stalled for a short period before steady buying moved through to the take the market to just above the 1.1170 level before slowly drifting back to finish the day just below the 1.1150 level.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Trade Balance Mar A 922M | C 131M | P 12M | R -68M

JPY         Unemployment Rate Mar A 2.50% | C 2.40% | P 2.30%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr A 1.30% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Mar (P) A -0.90% | C 0.00% | P 0.70%

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Mar A 1.00% | C 0.80% | P 0.40% | R 0.60%

AUD       PPI Q/Q Q1 A 0.40% | P 0.50%

AUD       PPI Y/Y Q1 A 1.90% | C 2.00% | P 2.00%

AUD       Import price index Q/Q Q1 A -0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Mar A 10.00% | C 5.50% | P 4.20%

GBP       BBA Loans for House Purchase Mar A 39980 | C 38675 | P 39083 | R 39207

USD       GDP Annualized Q/Q Q1 (A) A 3.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.20%

USD       GDP Price Index Q1 (A) A 0.90% | C 1.30% | P 1.70%

USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment Apr (F) A 97.2 | C 97 | P 96.9

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Exchange has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Exchange will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Exchange does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Exchange or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange will clearly identify and mark any content it publishes or that is approved by LMAX Exchange.

FX and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses exceeding your deposit. They are not suitable for everyone so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. The information on this website is not directed at residents of the United States of America, Australia (we will only deal with Australian clients who are "wholesale clients" as defined under the Corporations Act 2001), Canada (although we may deal with Canadian residents who meet the "Permitted Client" criteria), Singapore or any other jurisdiction where FX trading and/or CFD trading is restricted or prohibited by local laws or regulations.