Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.309 | EURUSD 1.12223 | AUDUSD 0.69439 | NZDUSD 0.65721 | USDCAD 1.34823 | USDCHF 1.00636 | GBPUSD 1.29586 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12410 | 1.12228

USDJPY                 109.712 | 109.146

GBPUSD               1.29714 | 1.2943

USDCHF               1.00689 | 1.0051

AUDUSD              0.69594 | 0.6940

USDCAD               1.34877 | 1.3464

NZDUSD               0.65915 | 0.65651

EURCHF                1.13160 | 1.12883

EURGBP               0.86779 | 0.86603

EURJPY                 123.301 | 122.587

For Today

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.2960 level the market dipped into the Tokyo opening to push lightly through the 1.2945 area before starting a slow steady rise through to the 1.2970 areas before drifting for the rest of the session to the 1.2960 into the grey hour, downside bids congestive through to the 1.2900 areas where the bids are likely to be a little thicker on the move through to the 1.2860 before weak stops appear and the potential for a deeper move with technical support and sentimental bids appear, topside offers light through to the 1.3000 level and congestive all the way through to the 1.3100 areas with stronger congestion likely through to weak stops above the 1.3120-30 areas but congestion likely to continue through the 1.31 handle into stronger offers above 1.3180.
  • JPY: Opening a touch lower the USDJPY drifted through into the early part of Tokyo testing to the 109.15 before starting a strong rally through to the 109.60 levels to range quietly through to the grey hour, Downside bids strong into the 109.00 levels with possible stronger stops on a move through the 108.80 areas with stronger bids through into the 108.50 level and increasing congestion through the downside through to the 108.00 level and the lows from the beginning of the year, topside offers light through to the 110.00 levels with weak stops pushing through the 110.20 areas and opening the possibility of a small squeeze through to the 111.00 areas where stronger offers reappear.
  • AUD: Helped by the move in the JPY the Oz managed a limited gain through the session moving off the 0.6940 lows and testing back to the 0.6960 level before quietly ranging through to the grey hours holding just above the 0.6950 area, downside congestion mostly around the sentimental levels with possible stronger bids concentrated around the 69 cents level before opening the chance of testing to the 0.6800 area and the lows from early this year and the area that the market rose from in 2016. Topside offers likely to be weak through to the 70 cents level with some congestion and stops through the 0.7020 level and opening the market to stronger congestion on a move to the 0.7050 areas and continuing into a crowded 0.7050-0.7100 areas.
  • EUR: Pushing off the opening lows the Euro pushed through into the Tokyo session moving above the 1.1230 level from there to eventually test through to the 1.1240 level in a long drawn out push and a quiet move into the grey hour, congestion through the current levels increasing into the 1.1280 areas with stronger offers through the 1.1300-20 level with weak stops likely to be through the level any stops are likely to find congestion continuing through the 1.1340-6t0 areas and continuing through to the stronger 1.1400 areas, downside bids likely to be limited through to the 1.1200 areas with weak congestion likely through to the 1.1150 area and opening a renewed test to the 1.1120 level with stronger bids in the area, any push through to the 1.1080 level is possibly opening the market to a deeper move.

 

Overnight News

USD:

US to bar 6 Chinese entities from exporting sensitive tech – Nikkei

Subjects allegedly aided Iranian weapons programs and Chinese military – Nikkei

Farmers turn against Trump’s trade war – CNN

Trump says Iran will suffer greatly if US is provoked – BBG

The US is exploring a plan to deploy 120,000 troops to the middle east – BDR

Moody’s:

Moody’s says increased US tariffs to weigh on economic growth in China and the rest of Asia Sees Rise in tensions between US-China to contribute to a renewed slowdown in systemically important regions of global economy

Export oriented economies of Asia may be particularly exposed to the risk of global and regional downturns

Economic growth in both eh US and China will be hurt by the imposed tariffs

If abrupt breakdown in US-China trade talks happen would lead to policy uncertainty, increased risk aversion and abrupt repricing of risk assets globally

In longer term deterioration in trade relationship between US-China will lead to increased fragmentation of global trading system

In longer term deterioration in trade relationship may weaken rules-based system that has underpinned global growth for several decades

GBP:

Brexit party event offers terrifying glimpse of possible future – GUA

Grass roots UK wants to move forward with Brexit (even no deal Brexit) – GUA

European election results may be calamitous for May and Corbyn – GUA

TRY:

Lira tumbles as Turkey Inc, rushes to buy USD after rally – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Current Account (JPY) Mar (P) A 1.27T | C 1.71T | P 1.96T | R 1.90T

AUD       NAB Business Conditions Apr A 3 | C 4 | P 7

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Apr A 0 | C 1 | P 0 | R -1

05:00     JPY         Eco Watchers Survey Current Apr C 45.8 | P 44.8

06:00     EUR        German CPI M/M Apr (F) C 1.00% | P 1.00%

06:00     EUR        German CPI Y/Y Apr (F) C 2.00% | P 2.00%

06:30     CHF        Producer & Import Prices M/M Apr C 0.20% | P 0.30%

06:30     CHF        Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Apr C -0.40% | P -0.20%

08:30     GBP       Jobless Claims Change Apr C 24.2K | P 28.3K

08:30     GBP       Claimant Count Rate Apr P 3.00%

08:30     GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Mar C 3.40% | P 3.50%

08:30     GBP       Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y Mar C 3.30% | P 3.40%

08:30     GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Mar C 3.90% | P 3.90%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Mar C -0.30% | P -0.20%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. Y/Y Mar C -0.80% | P -0.30%

09:00     EUR        German ZEW Economic Sentiment May C 5 | P 3.1

09:00     EUR        German ZEW Current Situation May C 6 | P 5.5

09:00     EUR        Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment May C 5 | P 4.5

12:30     USD       Import Price Index M/M Apr C 0.70% | P 0.60%

23:50     JPY         Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Apr C 2.30% | P 2.40%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet Asian session with the Cable ranging around the 1.3010 level through to the London session before some early sellers sent the market through the 1.3000 in a minor move before stabilising and rising steadily through to the 1.3015 area holding until deep into the morning before pushing through to the 1.3025 area, the move to the NYK session saw the market testing higher and posting the high of the day through the 1.3040 area, the end of the Brexit talks with the Labour party seems to be over, as you’d expect and the market dropped off quickly testing initially to the 1.3000 steadily before dropping more steeply through to the 1.2950 level before finding a base and then gradually pushing to the 1.2960 levels for the move through to the close.
  • JPY: Dropping from the opening into the Tokyo session to test the 109.60 areas before recovering and running through the session ranging around the 109.75-80 levels through to the London session, the market again dipped to the lows and holding through to the NYK session where strong selling moved in, dropping quickly through to the 109.25 levels before pausing for a short period before dipping a second time and holding this time just above the 109.00 level and running through deep into the NYK session holding around the 109.15 areas the run to the close saw some recovery but it was limited topping out around the 109.35 level before drifting to a close just off those levels.
  • AUD: A steady decline through the day moving from the opening 70 cents level to test initially into the Tokyo session to the 0.6980 areas before holding for a couple of hours before dipping through the level and continuing through to the London session holding the 0.6970 area before finding a little bit of upward movement back above the 0.6980 level before renewing its downward spiral the push through the 0.6960 level saw some stronger selling through to the 0.6940 levels before finding a base and holding just above the lows through to the close.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1230 areas pushing into the Tokyo session testing just above the 1.1240 level lightly before slipping back again and drifting through the opening level, the move into the London session testing through to the 1.1225 areas with the market bouncing lightly off the level and ranging into the NYK session before strongly moving higher through the 1.1250 areas testing into the low 1.1260’s holding for a couple of hours before again dipping through to the 1.1230, the move into the final hour saw the market dipping through to the lows just above the 1.1220 area.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       Home loans MoM Mar A -2.50% | C -0.50% | P 2.00% | R 0.80%

JPY         Leading Index I Mar (P) A 96.3 | C 96.3 | 97.1

 

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