Daily FX Market Commentary

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.515 | EURUSD 1.11938 | AUDUSD 0.69175 | NZDUSD 0.65423 | USDCAD 1.34444| USDCHF 1.00385 | GBPUSD 1.26794 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.11962 | 1.11785

USDJPY                 109.629 | 109.435           

GBPUSD               1.26834 | 1.26686

USDCHF               1.00498 | 1.00349

AUDUSD              0.69297 | 0.69144

USDCAD               1.34526 | 1.34335

NZDUSD               0.65540 | 0.6542             

EURCHF                1.12412 | 1.12316

EURGBP               0.88350 | 0.88217

EURJPY                 122.701 | 122.348

For Today

  • GBP: A slow day with the market opening around the 1.2680 areas and then after holding the level deep into the Tokyo session a slow drift through to the 1.2670 area and holding in a tight range through to the grey hour, limited congestion through the 1.2700 level and into the 1.2750 area before some sentimental offers appear, a move towards the 1.2800 will likely see some resistance but a mote through the 1.2820 areas is likely to see some weak stops and the market opening through to weak offers around the 1.2850 level and then stronger offers then appearing on any attempt to the 1.2900 areas. Downside bids light through to the 1.2650 area however, from there congestion is likely to appear in increasing size through to the 1.2600 level with strong stops likely on a push through the figure area to test towards the 1.2550 level and another round of stronger bids.
  • JPY: Limited movement through the session opening above the 109.50 areas the market dipped initially from the opening to the high 109.40’s before recovering and moving into the Tokyo session to push quickly through towards the 109.65 area before drifting off again and testing through to the 109.45 area, the market then held for several hours in the area before moving towards the grey hour pushing quickly higher to probe the 109.55 level. Downside congestion down through the 109.50 level and increasing as the market moves towards the 109.00 areas, with a break of the 108.80 level likely to trigger weak stops but running into stronger congestion on any dips through to the 108.50 areas and increasing into the 108.00 level. Topside offer into the 110.00 likely to be weak with weak stops possibly opening the market to a quick move through to the 110.50 areas before stronger congestion moves in and increasing into the 111.00 level with strong stops a possibility on a move through.
  • AUD: Pushing from the opening 0.6917 area the market steadily tested to the 0.6925 level and ranged in a tight 5 pip range from that level before eventually starting a rise through to the 0.6930 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers 0.6940-60 areas and likely increasing through the 0.6980-0.7000 levels, downside bids into the 0.6850 area likely to be more sentimental than anything else, stronger bids into the 0.6800 areas with sentimental values likely to show stronger bids on any push lower.
  • EUR: Early attempts to push higher failed just above the 1.1195 area the market drifted off and tested through to the 1.1180 areas for a long run to the grey hour, Downside bids into the 1.1140 level with only a little opening before stronger bids appear through to the 1.1100 areas and likely to continue to the 1.1080 area before weak stops appear and the market opens a little through to the 1.1040 level and better bids reappear for any attempt at the 1.1000 level, topside offers into the 1.1220 area with possibly stronger stops on a push through the level however, above is likely to be congested and any move towards the 1.1300 is likely to be more of a grind through the levels

 

Overnight News

EUR:

Italy seeks ECB board seat as league urges infrastructure QE – BBG

Europe has been given another chance to avoid nationalist chaos – perhaps its last – HAA

Salvini says will reply to EU letter that era of uncertainty is over – BBG

Salvini says will use growing support to try and change Europe – BBG

Salvini: Fiat, Renault talks brilliant, hopes deal will happen – BBG

Euro to ignore EU elections and follow fundamentals lower – BBG

EU election likely to lead to new general election – EER

EUR/USD:

EU draws red line for Trump on cars, call quotas a no go – BBG

USD/CNY:

Extra US China tariffs seen costing world $600B in 2021 – BBG

CNY/USD:

China is indicating it’ll never give in to US demands to change its state-run economy – CNBC

CNY:

China’s bank seizure points to wider stresses – BBG

China dreams on hold, heartland and city feels chill of economic slowdown – RTRS

GBP:

The only way to prove Nigel Farage wrong is to deliver Brexit – TEL

SEK:

Trade war looming large as Sweden’s economic engine sputters – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Corporate Service Price Y/Y Apr A 0.90% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%      

05:45     CHF        GDP Q/Q Q1 C 0.40% | P 0.20% 

06:00     EUR        German Import Price Index M/M Apr C 0.50% | P 0.00%

06:00     EUR        German GfK Consumer Confidence Jun C 10.4 | P 10.4    

08:00     EUR        Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Apr C 4.40% | P 4.50%  

08:30     GBP       BBA Loans for House Purchase Apr C 39450 | P 39980     

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Business Climate Indicator May C 0.4 | P 0.42 

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Economic Confidence May C 103.9 | P 104       

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Confidence May C -4.2 | P -4.1           

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Services Confidence May C 11 | P 11.5               

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence May (F) C -6.5 | P -6.5   

13:00     USD       House Price Index M/M Mar C 0.20% | P 0.30%  

13:00     USD       S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Mar C 2.55% | P 3.00%           

14:00     USD       Consumer Confidence Index May C 130 | P 129.2

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A slow rise through the Asian session slowly moving from the higher opening around the 1.2720 areas and pushing through to just short of the 1.2750 areas, the move into the London session saw the market in a decline with very little volume going through and the market pushing steadily down to the 1.2670 areas, the market held the area and traded through to the close with the market unable to push back to far beyond the 1.2680 level.
  • JPY: Opening a touch higher the market dipped to fill the small gap before starting a slow steady rise through to the 109.50 areas holding quietly through into the grey hour, early European buying saw the market pushing a little higher however, the market was unable to break the 109.60 areas and drifted off to base along the 109.45 areas through into the NYK session before rising just a little higher and holding through to the close around the 109.55.
  • AUD: A small rise through to the 0.6935 areas through the Asian session before testing back through the opening 0.6930 level and dipping back to the early lows around the 0.6925 area to hold through deep into the session in NYK before dipping through to the 0.6915 lows and holding quickly through to the close.
  • EUR: Very limited movement for the Euro with the market dipping from the opening around the 1.1210 area to test below 1.1205 level before renewing its push higher through to the 1.1215 level or the high of the day, the market drifted through the move into the London session testing back to the 1.1195 areas and ranging around the level deep through the balance of the day before testing the 1.1190 level and the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Leading Index CI Mar (F) A 95.9 | C 96.3 | P 96.3 | R 97.1

JPY         Coincident Index Mar (F) A 99.4 | C 99.6 | P 99.6 | R 100.5

CHF        Total Sight Deposits CHF (MAY 24) A 576.8B | P 578.3B   

 

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