Daily FX Market Commentary

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.147 | EURUSD 1.12523 | AUDUSD 0.69911 | NZDUSD 0.66141 | USDCAD 1.33927 | USDCHF 0.99219 | GBPUSD 1.2698 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12654 | 1.12507

USDJPY                 108.271 | 108.032           

GBPUSD               1.27126 | 1.26929

USDCHF               0.99253 | 0.9909

AUDUSD              0.70039 | 0.69814

USDCAD               1.33973 | 1.33762

NZDUSD               0.66344 | 0.66025           

EURCHF                1.11747 | 1.11608

EURGBP               0.88648 | 0.88586

EURJPY                 121.841 | 121.647

For Today

  • GBP: A quiet rise through the Asian session saw the Cable push lightly above the 1.2710 areas before slipping back towards the opening levels for the move into the grey hour, topside offers light through to the 1.2750 areas with stronger sentimental offering around that level before opening to limited offers through the 1.2800 area with weak stops likely on a push through to the 1.2820 areas and opening the chance to a quick move higher, downside bids light through to the 1.2650 area and then increasing through to the 1.2600 level, congestion likely to continue through the downside and increasing to stronger bids into the 1.2550 level.
  • JPY: Initially pushing from the opening around the 108.10 area the market made early highs into the Tokyo session to touch lightly above the 108.25 areas before starting a slow drift through the session to test towards the 108.00 level and holding to the grey hour, downside congestion through to the 107.50 level with stops likely to still be below the 107.80 areas, a push through the 107.50 area though is likely to see weakness appearing and the possibility of a quick dip to the 107.00 level with possibly only sentimental bids likely with further congestion not likely until the market dips through the level and continuing through to the 106.00 levels. With limited bids until below 106.50 area, topside offers light through to the 108.50 area with some congestion likely on a move through to the level however a push towards the 109.00 level may see a short squeeze through the level and opening a larger topside move.
  • AUD: Quiet session for the Oz with the market opening around the 0.6990 level and rising quietly through the session to press towards the 0.7005 areas with a minor spike lower to make the lows just through the 0.6985 level but generally maintaining its slow climb through to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 0.7020 area and weak stops likely on a push through the level the congestion is likely to continue with some minor stops in the mix but likely to struggle to the 0.7050 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.6900 area before stronger bids again appear on any dip through the level and increasing on any dip to the 0.6850 areas.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1250 area the market lifted slowly through to the 1.1265 areas before holding quietly through to the grey hour just off those highs, Topside offers continue through to the 1.1280 level and are likely to increase into the 1.1300 areas with weak stops likely through the 1.1320 area with stronger offers into the 1.1350 level. Downside bids light through the 1.1180 level with weak stops likely to appear and opening another test to the 1.1100 areas with light congestion into the 1.1150 level.

 

Overnight News

USD/MXN:

Economists see growth sapping US-Mexico tariffs lasting months – BBG

Trump says no bluff on Mexico tariffs in response to Schumer

Mnuchin to meet PBoC Yi Gang at G20 meeting in Japan

EUR:

ECB under pressure as inflation slows more than forecast – BBG

CNY:

China warns citizens of US travel danger as trade spat deepens – BBG

AUD:

RBA’s Lowe says not unreasonable to expect another rate cut – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

               

AUD       AiG Performance of Service Index May A 52.5 | P 46.5    

AUD       GDP Q/Q Q1 A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%            

AUD       GDP Y/Y Q1 A 1.80% | C 1.80% | P 2.30%              

CNY        Caixin PMI Services May A 52.7 | C 54.2 | P 54.5

07:45     EUR        Italy Services PMI May C 49.8 | P 50.4    

07:50     EUR        France Services PMI May (F) C 51.7 | P 51.7         

07:55     EUR        Germany Services PMI May (F) C 55 | P 55            

08:00     EUR        Eurozone Services PMI May (F) C 52.5 | P 52.5    

08:30     GBP       Services PMI May C 50.6 | P 50.4              

09:00     EUR        Eurozone PPI M/M Apr C 0.20% | P -0.10%          

09:00     EUR        Eurozone PPI Y/Y Apr C 3.10% | P 2.90%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr C -0.50% | P 0.00%          

12:15     USD       ADP Employment Change May C 185K | P 275K  

12:30     CAD       Labour Productivity Q/Q Q1 C 0.40% | P -0.40% 

13:45     USD       Services PMI May (F) C 50.9 | P 50.9        

14:00     USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite May C 55.5 | P 55.5               

14:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P -0.3M    

18:00     USD       Federal Reserve Beige Book                                       

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Quiet Asian session with the market ranging between the 1.2660-70 levels through to the grey hour with early buyers pushing the market through to the 1.2685 area before the London opening saw steady selling through the open, the market slipped from the highs to test through to the 1.2640 area before starting a steady rise and this time pushing through the 1.2690 area, the steady buying subsided and the market drifted through to the NYK session holding above the opening level for the move through to the London session with a minor spike to the 1.2710 triggering weak stops on the move and once cleared the market again dipped to the 1.2670 level and the end of the London session, again the market saw strong buying once London left the stage and this time the market pushed to just above the 1.2710 areas to make the highs of the day before slipping back into the close.
  • JPY: Reasonably quiet through the Asian session with the market ranging from the opening around the 108.05 area to push lightly through to the 107.85 area and basing along the level through to the London session, London were steady buyers with the market lifting gradually up to the 108.15 level before reversing to move to the NYK session, and starting another steady rise through to the 108.30 level this time and while the market saw some choppy periods through the session it eventually pushed through to the 108.35 level for the highs of the day and then dipping once the London market came to a stop but holding above the 108.00 levels to finish around the 108.15 areas.
  • AUD: Limited but choppy and nervous through the day, opening around the 0.6975 area the market held quietly through into the Tokyo session before dipping through to the 0.6960 level as AUDJPY selling appeared and the minor corrections over with rising back to the opening level for the RBA announcement, the first cut in 3 years saw the Oz quickly rise through to the 0.6990 level before reversing and dropping back towards the lows but generally the market had already taken into account the prophesied cut and the market held around the 0.6980 areas with minor spikes lower extending the lows to below the 0.6970 area but for the most part holding around the 0.6970-90 levels deep into the NYK session before starting a slow rise through to the 70 cents area and holding just below the area to the close.
  • EUR: A steady rise through the Asian session saw the Euro repeatedly pushing into the 1.1255 areas but unable to push beyond the 1.1260 level, the move into the grey hour saw early Europeans pushing the market through the level and a reasonably quick stab to the 1.1275 areas before running into sufficient offers to curb the market, and a dipping CPI number turning the market back to the opening levels for the move into the NYK session and strong selling forcing the market back to the 1.1230 level sneaking lightly through the level before finding a base and some mild choppy motions through into the early part of NYK, a slow rise from the close of London and testing through to hole above the opening levels to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q1 A 1.00% | C 0.50% | P -3.00% | R -3.20%

GBP       BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y May A -3.00% | C 0.80% | P 3.70% 

JPY         Monetary Base Y/Y May A 3.60% | C 3.20% | P 3.10%     

AUD       Current Account Balance (AUD) Q1 A -2.9B | C -2.9B | P -7.2B | R -6.3B

AUD       Retail Sales M/M Apr A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%          

AUD       RBA Rate Decision A 1.25% | C 1.25% | P 1.50% 

GBP       Construction PMI May A 48.6 | C 50.6 | P 50.5   

EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Apr A 7.60% | C 7.70% | P 7.70%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y May (A) A 0.80% | C 0.90% | P 1.30%        

EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y May A 1.20% | C 1.30% | P 1.70%       

USD       Factory Orders Apr A -0.80% | C -0.90% | P 1.90% | R 1.30%

 

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