Daily FX Market Commentary

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.451 | EURUSD 1.13115 | AUDUSD 0.69605 | NZDUSD 0.66105 | USDCAD 1.32689 | USDCHF 0.98989 | GBPUSD 1.26857 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13187 | 1.13074

USDJPY                 108.646 | 108.351

GBPUSD               1.26911 | 1.26779

USDCHF               0.99016 | 0.98937

AUDUSD              0.69663 | 0.69528

USDCAD               1.32699 | 1.32619

NZDUSD               0.66113 | 0.65936           

EURCHF                1.12030 | 1.11951

EURGBP               0.89235 | 0.89152

EURJPY                 122.928 | 122.624

For Today

  • GBP: Another quiet day with the market holding the 1.2685 areas and lifting slowly to just above the 1.2690 areas before heading into the Tokyo session and then drifting off through to hold the 1.2680 areas dipping lightly through and pushing to the grey hour, Downside bids into the 1.2650 level with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2600 level with slight weakness through there and possible stronger bids on any move to the 1.2550 level. Topside offers light through to the 1.2750 area with only minor congestion through to that level and strong stops on a move through opening up the 1.2800 level with possibly only limited sentimental resistance and opening the chance of a stronger rally.
  • JPY: drifting from the opening around the 108.40 level, the market moved into the Tokyo session testing to the 108.35 level before starting a strong rally through to the 108.60 area and holding through to the grey hour in a tight range around the level, Topside congestion light through to the 109.00 area with stronger offers competing with weak stops on a move through the 109.20 areas with the offers increasing on any move towards the 109.60 level and likely to be stubborn on any test of the 110.00 level, downside bids light through to the 108.00 area with stronger bids likely to appear on any dip through the level and while stops may be lurking the 107.50 is likely to see increased buying interest.
  • AUD: Very quiet for the Oz with the early numbers having limited effect on the market and the market continued to range around the opening 0.6960 level having had brief test of the 108.55 area and heading into the grey hour holding the lows. Topside offers into the 0.7020 area and weak stops likely on a push through the level the congestion is likely to continue with some minor stops in the mix but likely to struggle to the 0.7050 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.6900 area before stronger bids again appear on any dip through the level and increasing on any dip to the 0.6850 areas.
  • EUR: A narrow tight range for the Euro with the market trying a minor couple of attempts at the 1.1320 level before falling back each time to the 1.1310 area to hold the opening level to the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.1350 level possibly some mild weakness on a push through the 1.1360 level however, stronger offers are likely to reappear on any test through the 1.1380 level and increasing into the 1.1400 level with weak stops possibly on a push through the 1.1410-20 areas to open a stronger move, downside bids light through to the 1.1250 level with congestion likely in that area with that congestion likely to continue through to the 1.1200 and while there may be some weak stops congestion is likely to continue.

 

 

Overnight News

OIL:

Saudi Arabia, Russia warn of sub $40 oil

CNY:

China heads for biggest daily loss as new loads are cut off – BBG

China’s margin debt may be ticking time bomb for shares – BBG

NZD:

NZ Economists more cautious on 1Q GDP after manufacturing data – BBG

USD:

Pence says US in very strong position on China – BBG

USD/CNY:

Trump says he’ll raise China tariffs if Xi won’t meet at G20

Shipping data confirms US-China trade collapse – BBG

AUD:

Ozzies torpedoed by China imports slump – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Manufacturing Activity Q1 A 1.0% | P -0.50%

JPY         Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y May A 2.7% | C 2.60% | P 2.60%

AUD       NAB Business Conditions May A 1 | P 3

AUD       NAB Business Confidence May A 7 | P 0

06:00     JPY         Machine Tool Orders Y/Y May (P) P -33.40%

08:30     GBP       Jobless Claims Change May C 12.3K | P 24.7K

08:30     GBP       Claimant Count Rate May P 3.00%

08:30     GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M Y/Y Apr C 3.00% | P 3.20%

08:30     GBP       Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M Y/Y Apr C 3.10% | P 3.30%

08:30     GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Apr C 3.80% | P 3.80%

08:30     EUR        Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Jun C 2.5 | P 5.3

10:00     USD       NFIB Small Business Optimism May C 101.9 | P 103.5

12:30     USD       PPI M/M May C 0.10% | P 0.20%

12:30     USD       PPI Y/Y May C 1.90% | P 2.20%

12:30     USD       PPI Core M/M May C 0.20% | P 0.10%

12:30     USD       PPI Core Y/Y May C 2.30% | P 2.40%

23:50     JPY         Domestic CGPI Y/Y May C 0.70% | P 1.20%

23:50     JPY         Machine Orders M/M Apr C -0.80% | P 3.80%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Nervous start saw a wide range for the opening spiking to just above the 1.2750 level before settling back to the 1.2730 area and a slow drift through the day, heading to the grey hour testing to the 1.2700 area, London opening saw a brief reprieve with the market pushing quickly back to the 1.2725 area that is until the release of a worse than expected GDP number and the market quickly back to the figure level and through to the 1.2685 area and the congestive bids, the market held for a short while before starting the slow drift through to the NYK opening and testing the 1.2655 level, the NYK market was not particularly worried about the unexpected GDP number and slowly pushed the market back towards the 1.2700 level briefly pushing through before finishing the day around the 1.2685 areas.
  • JPY: opening higher the market pushed to the 108.50 level and then spent half the session trading around the level dipping through to the 10835 area before rallying deep into the session to push through to the grey hour testing the 108.65 areas with a final push to make the high in London just above the 108.70 level, the market held above the 108.50 for the most part to late into the day with the market drifting off at the end of what was the old IMM close testing back to the 108.30 level and then holding quietly through to the close.
  • AUD: A dull day overall with the bear sellers again reappearing and the market slipping from the high opening just short of the 0.7010 area and slipping through into the Tokyo session through the 70 cents levels a brief pause before renewing the downside move and testing through to the 0.6980 levels and the sliding continued with the market heading into the London session testing the 0.6960 level and then holding through the day in a narrow 0.6970-60 range to the close on its lows.
  • EUR: Opening a touch lower around the 1.1325 level the market filled the gap and set the high of the day just through the 1.1330 level before slowly drifting through the day testing into the London session to make the lows around the 1.1290 area and a slow recovery through the 1.1300 levels, the move into the NYK session saw the market dropping off the 1.1320 level and testing those lows of the day again before holding quietly around the 1.1315 area through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

CNY        Trade Balance (USD) May A 41.7B | C 23.2B | P 13.8B

CNY        Imports (USD) Y/Y May A 0.8.50% | C -3.30% | P 4.00%

CNY        Exports (USD) Y/Y May A 1.10% | C -3.80% | P -2.70%

CNY        Trade Balance (CNY) May A 279B | C 136B | P 94B

CNY        Imports Y/Y (CNY) May A -2.50% | C 5.80% | P 10.30%

CNY        Exports Y/Y (CNY) May A 7.70% | C 4.70% | P 3.10%

JPY         Current Account Total (JPY) Apr (P) A 1.60T | C 1.44T | P 1.27T

JPY         GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.50%

JPY         GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 (F) A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%

JPY         Bank Lending incl Trusts Y/Y May A 2.60% | C 2.40% | P 2.40%

JPY         Bank Lending Ex-Trusts Y/Y May A 2.80% | P 2.50%

JPY         Eco Watchers Survey Current May A 44.1 | C 45.5 | P 45.3 | R 45

GBP       GDP M/M Apr A -0.40% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%    

GBP       Index of Services 3M/3M Apr A  0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%          

GBP       Industrial Production M/M Apr A -2.70% | C -1.00% | P 0.70%     

GBP       Industrial Production Y/Y Apr A -1.00% | C 0.90% | P 1.30%          

GBP       Manufacturing Production M/M Apr A -3.90% | C -1.40% | P 0.90%          

GBP       Manufacturing Production Y/Y Apr A -0.80% | C 2.00% | P 2.60%               

GBP       Construction Output M/M Apr A -0.40% | C 0.50% | P -1.90%      

GBP       Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Apr A -12.1B | C -13.1B | P -13.7B | R -15.4B

CAD       Housing Starts May A 202K | C 220K | P 235K | R 233K

CAD       Building Permits M/M Apr A 14.70% | C 1.80% | P 2.10% | R 2.80%

 

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