Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.508 | EURUSD 1.12874 | AUDUSD 0.69293 | NZDUSD 0.65717 | USDCAD 1.33434 | USDCHF 0.99556 | GBPUSD 1.26887 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12984 | 1.12882

USDJPY                 108.519 | 108.167

GBPUSD               1.27003 | 1.26834

USDCHF               0.99536 | 0.99361

AUDUSD              0.69392 | 0.69055

USDCAD               1.33393 | 1.33261

NZDUSD               0.65870 | 0.6567             

EURCHF                1.12404 | 1.12239

EURGBP               0.89047 | 0.88941

EURJPY                 122.551 | 122.176

For Today

  • GBP: Rising slowly from the opening around the 1.2690 level the market pushed through to the Tokyo session steadily rising to test lightly to the 1.2700 level before steadily reversing and pushing through the open to move towards the grey hour testing steadily through the mid 1.2680’s in light trading, Downside bids into the 1.2650 level with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2600 level with slight weakness through there and possible stronger bids on any move to the 1.2550 level. Topside offers light through to the 1.2750 area with only minor congestion through to that level and strong stops on a move through opening up the 1.2800 level with possibly only limited sentimental resistance and opening the chance of a stronger rally.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened quietly just below the 108.50 areas and although there were brief flirtations with the topside above the level its high was a meagre 108.54 area before dropping quickly through to the 108.20 area with very little behind it, the recovery as much as it was pushed through to the 108.35 level and into the grey hour, Topside congestion light through to the 109.00 area with stronger offers competing with weak stops on a move through the 109.20 areas with the offers increasing on any move towards the 109.60 level and likely to be stubborn on any test of the 110.00 level, downside bids light through to the 108.00 area with stronger bids likely to appear on any dip through the level and while stops may be lurking the 107.50 is likely to see increased buying interest.
  • AUD: A slow rise through the early market of the session initially holding above  the 0.6930 areas before running into the employment numbers and a little chop appeared as employment saw a decent rise however, overall numbers saw a different conclusion and the market quickly reversed testing quickly through to the 0.6915  area from the 0.6938 area and a slow drift through the grey hour barely holding the 0.6900 area. Topside offers into the 0.7020 area and weak stops likely on a push through the level the congestion is likely to continue with some minor stops in the mix but likely to struggle to the 0.7050 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.6900 area before stronger bids again appear on any dip through the level and increasing on any dip to the 0.6850 areas.
  • EUR: Another slow day for the Euro with the market moving off the opening just below the 1.1290 area and testing into the Tokyo session with barely 5 pips in it, the market ranged from there in a tight 8 pip range basing on the 1.1290 level and moved into the grey hour in the middle, Topside offers through the 1.1350 level possibly some mild weakness on a push through the 1.1360 level however, stronger offers are likely to reappear on any test through the 1.1380 level and increasing into the 1.1400 level with weak stops possibly on a push through the 1.1410-20 areas to open a stronger move, downside bids light through to the 1.1250 level with congestion likely in that area with that congestion likely to continue through to the 1.1200 and while there may be some weak stops congestion is likely to continue.

 

 

Overnight News

USD:

Trump says he will meet Putin at G20 summit in Japan

US consumer inflation slows in May on cheap energy, used cars

White house says it will meet two year deadline for Huawei ban for contractors

HKD/CNY:

China extradition clashes plunge Hong Kong into historic violence

CNY:

China sends warning signal to Yuan bears before G20 meeting

China is capable of dealing with various challenges – Vice Premier

CNY/CAD:

China snubbed Trudeau request for talks about detained Canadians

AUD:

RBA is in the dark on full employment – DJ

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

GBP       RICS House Price Balance May A -10.00% | C -21.00% | P -23.00% | R -22.00%     

JPY         BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q2 A -10.4 | C 4.5 | P -7.3

AUD       Consumer Inflation Expectation Jun A 3.30% | P 3.30%   

AUD       Employment Change May A 42.3K | C 16.0K | P 28.4K | R 43.1K  

AUD       Unemployment Rate May A 5.20% | C 5.10% | P 5.20%  

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index M/M Apr A 0.80% | C 0.40% | P -0.40%   

06:00     EUR        German CPI M/M May (F) C 0.20% | P 0.20%       

06:00     EUR        German CPI Y/Y May (F) C 1.40% | P 1.40%          

06:30     CHF        Producer & Import Prices M/M May C 0.10% | P 0.00%  

06:30     CHF        Producer & Import Prices Y/Y May C -0.70% | P -0.60%   

07:30     CHF        SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate C -0.75% | P -0.75%        

07:30     CHF        SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range C -1.25% | P -1.25%        

07:30     CHF        SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range C -0.25% | P -0.25%        

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Apr C -0.50% | P -0.30%     

12:30     CAD       New Housing Price Index M/M Apr C 0.00% | P 0.00%     

12:30     USD       Import Price Index M/M May C -0.30% | P 0.20%              

12:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 8) C 215K | P 218K      

14:30     USD       Natural Gas Storage P 119B

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet Asian session with the market marking time around the 1.2720 levels before pushing into the grey hour and steadily rising into the London session to push through the 1.2730 levels and eventually pushing through to another steady rise into mid-morning to range around the 1.2740 level, a quick surge saw the market making the highs just short of the 1.2750 level and having failed to dipping back to the 1.2730 for the move into the NYK session and a second run at the level, this run ended like the first with the market quickly back to the 1.2730 level and ranging around the level until the run to the end of London with strong selling sending the market quickly through to the 1.2690 level triggering some weak stops on the move before running to the close holding the level after the attempt to block a no Brexit deal failed leaving the option open for the new PM when he or she takes office.
  • JPY: A quiet range bound move through the Asian session dipping from the opening highs around the 108.55 areas to test into the Tokyo session to the 108.45 area and while there was limited buying the market held in a very tight range below the 108.50 area through to the grey hour, steady selling saw the market moving into the London opening testing through to the 108.30 level and although London were steady sellers early in the day they could never quiet make it through the 108.20 level and the USDJPY started a slow recovery on the move into the NYK session eventually pushing to the opening levels and then ranging around the 108.50 level and finishing almost unchanged.
  • AUD: A slow drift through the Asian session with the market opening on its highs just above the 0.6960 level and holding the level through to early Tokyo before starting the drift, the move through to the grey hour saw the market testing into the 0.6945 area, London saw light buying and the market holding for a long run to the NYK session around the 0.6950 area and once into the NYK session very little movement until the market moved through the London close and dropping away to the 0.6940 areas with strong selling as the market moved through to the Sydney opening to hold around the 0.69030 areas.
  • EUR: The Euro opened just below the 1.1330 level and spent a lot of time pushing slightly higher through to the grey hour eventually testing the 1.1340 level and while it did continue pushing the level through into the London session it couldn’t quiet make the break higher and retreated from just above the 1.1340 levels to test steadily back to the 1.1310 level for the move into the NYK session, some choppiness around the US data saw the high briefly tested before dropping quickly back to the previous levels and extending slightly through the 1.1310 area before ranging through to the London close and a quick run lower through to the 1.1290 area and making the lows around the 1.1283 area before recovering a little on the run to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Domestic CGPI Y/Y May A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 1.20% | R 1.30%

JPY         Machine Orders M/M Apr A 5.20% | C -0.80% | P 3.80%

AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence Jun A -0.60% | P 0.60%  

CNY        CPI Y/Y May A 2.70% | C 2.70% | P 2.50%             

CNY        PPI Y/Y May A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.90%             

USD       CPI M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%          

USD       CPI Y/Y May A 1.80% | C 1.90% | P 2.00%             

USD       CPI Core M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%

USD       CPI Core Y/Y May A 2.00% | C 2.10% | P 2.10%   

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 2.2M | C -1.0M | P 6.8M

 

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