Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.444 | EURUSD 1.11943 | AUDUSD 0.68766 | NZDUSD 0.65242 | USDCAD 1.33773 | USDCHF 1.0002 | GBPUSD 1.2558 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12024 | 1.11872
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.617 | 108.334
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25702 | 1.25562
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00150 | 1.00014
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68852 | 0.68709
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33817 | 1.33658
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.65391 | 0.65243
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12110 | 1.11936
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89171 | 0.8907
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.636 | 121.233
For Today
- GBP: A quiet slow move through to test the 1.2570 level in early Tokyo and then a quiet range from there between the highs and the opening level through to the grey hour, downside bids into the 1.2500 still likely to be a little stubborn, with congestion likely to appear on any dips through however, the market does seem to be optimistic and any push through could see strong stops appearing and a battle for any move through to the 1.2400 level with limited bids into the 1.2450 areas. Topside offer light through the 1.2600 level and with limited stops on the move higher the possibility of a short squeeze ever present however, the distance to that weakness is increasing each day with 1.2700 area likely to be a more solid area for resistance.
- JPY: Moving quietly from the opening level the USDJPY rose slowly to the 108.60 level into the Tokyo session and held the level for several hours before starting a slow drift through to the opening around the 108.45 level, the dip through saw some weakness through to the mid 108.30’s before holding for the move into the grey hour, Topside congestion light through to the 109.00 area with stronger offers competing with weak stops on a move through the 109.20 areas with the offers increasing on any move towards the 109.60 level and likely to be stubborn on any test of the 110.00 level, downside bids light through to the 108.00 area with stronger bids likely to appear on any dip through the level and while stops may be lurking the 107.50 is likely to see increased buying interest.
- AUD: A light rise in early Tokyo saw the highs just above the 0.6885 level before drifting back to hold around the opening levels in a very quiet session for the Oz, some EURAUD selling was noted however, for me you’d have to flip a coin, , congestive bids through to the 68 cents level and an old trendline likely to slow the market until a break through and the lows from the beginning of the year opening a deeper move. Topside offers light through to the 0.6900 area with congestive offers giving way to possibly stronger stops and the market then opening to the 0.6980 areas where stronger offers are likely to appear.
- EUR: A slow push from the opening to take the market just beyond the 1.1200 level before dropping back in little steps to move into the grey hour pushing the 1.1190 areas, Downside bids remain into the 1.1180 level with likely weak stops through the level, likely to see plenty of congestion through the level all the way to the 1.1150 area with stronger bids likely until a push through the 1.1140 even then the market is likely to see bids through the 1.1120 level and particularly strong below the 1.1100 area with any weakness below the 1.1080 level likely to open a longer term push lower, topside offers light through the 1.1200 area with weak stops limited above the 1.1220 area and the market likely to see congestion on any run to the 1.1250 level and then increasing again into the 1.1280-1.1300 level however, these offers are still likely to be building from the breakdown late last week.
Overnight News
USD:
FED reserve Veteran fears Trump is reducing America to a third world country Tel
Fed policy makers debate rate cut DJC
Trump on demoting Fed Chair Powell, lets see what he does BBG
Kudlow: White house is not currently considering demoting Powell, that’s a 6month old story – TTN
USD/CNY:
Trump: very good conversation with Xi, we will be having extended meeting next week in Japan
Trump: Our respective teams will begin talks prior to our meeting
Trump we’ll have a fair deal with China or no deal at all
NZD:
NZ treasury denies GDP growth forecasts are too optimistic BBG
AUD:
RBA ha snot reason to delay second cut DJ
CHF:
ECB easing will heighten the SNB’s policy dilemma
EUR/USD:
The Draghi shock unleashed chaos on Powell’s most important day Zero Hedge
USD/EUR:
Trump accuses ECB, China of weakening currencies to gain edge – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD Â Â Â Â Â BoP Current Account Balance (1Q) A 0.675B | C 0.160B | P -3.492B
NZD Â Â Â Â Â Current Account GDP Ratio YTD (1Q) A -3.6% | C -3.5% | P -3.8%
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (MAY) YEN A -609.1B| C -1207.0B | P 60.4B
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (MAY) A -967.1B | C -806.9B | P -110.9B
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Exports (YoY) (MAY) A -7.8% | C -8.4% | P -2.4%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Imports (YoY) (MAY) A -1.5% | C 1.0% | P 6.4%
AUD Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (MAY) A -0.08% | P -0.09% | R -0.05%
AUD Â Â Â Â Â Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (MAY) A -0.7% | P -1.6%
NZD Â Â Â Â Â Non Resident Bond Holdings (MAY) A 53.7% | P 53.9%
06:00Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI (MoM) (MAY) A 0.2% | P 0.5%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI (YoY) (MAY) C 2.2% | P 2.5%
06:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Eto speaks in Tokyo Low
08:00Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (APR) P 24.7b
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â CPIH (YoY) (MAY) C 1.9% | P 2.0%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI (MoM) (MAY) C 0.3% | P 0.6%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI (YoY) (MAY) C 2.0% | P 2.1%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI (YoY) (MAY) C 1.7% | P 1.8%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â RPI (MAY) C 288.8 | P 288.2
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â RPI (MoM) (MAY) C 0.2% | P 1.1%
08:30 Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â RPI (YoY) (MAY) C 2.9% | P 3.0%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (MAY) C 2.9% | P 3.0%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (MAY) C 0.2% | P 1.1%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) C 0.8% | P 3.8%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (MAY) C 0.2% | P 0.3%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) C 1.8% | P 2.1%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (MAY) C Â Â 0.1% | P 0.2%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (MAY) C 2.0% | P 2.2%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index (YoY) (APR) C 1.1% | P 1.4%
08:30Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â European Commission President Juncker Speaks in Sintra
09:00Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (APR) P -0.3%
09:00Â Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (APR) P 6.3%
10:00Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders (JUN) C -12 | P -10
10:00Â Â Â Â GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUN) C -3 | P -1
11:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 14) P 26.8%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (MAY) P 0.0%
12:30Â Â Â Â CAD Â Â Â Â Â Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (MAY) P 1.2%
12:30Â Â Â Â CAD Â Â Â Â Â Teranet/National Bank HP Index (MAY) P 222.22
12:30Â Â Â Â CAD Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (MoM) (MAY) C 0.1% | P 0.4%
12:30Â Â Â Â CAD Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) C 2.1% | P 2.0%
12:30Â Â Â Â CAD Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index (MAY) C 136 | P 136
12:30Â Â Â Â CAD Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (MAY) C 1.9% | P 1.8%
12:30Â Â Â Â CAD Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Median (YoY) (MAY) C 1.9% | P 1.9%
12:30Â Â Â Â CAD Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Trim (YoY) (MAY) C 2.1% | P 2.0%
14:00 Â Â Â EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB President Draghi Gives Closing Remarks at Sintra Forum
14:30Â Â Â Â USD Â Â Â Â Â Â DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUN 14) P 2206k
14:30Â Â Â Â USD Â Â Â Â Â Â DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUN 14) P 764k
18:00Â Â Â Â USD Â Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (JUN 19) C 2.50% | P 2.50%
18:00Â Â Â Â USD Â Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (JUN 19) C 2.25% | P 2.25%
18:00Â Â Â Â USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (JUN 20) C 2.35% | P 2.35%
18:30Â Â Â Â USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Fed Chair Powell Holds Press Conference After FOMC Meeting
22:45Â Â Â Â NZD Â Â Â Â Â GDP (YoY) (1Q) C 2.4% | P 2.3%
22:45Â Â Â Â NZD Â Â Â Â Â GDP s.a. (QoQ) (1Q) C 0.6% | P 0.6%
Harry Hindsight
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- GBP: Rising from the opening to hold through into mid-Tokyo trading around the 1.2540 level with a limited test to above the 1.2545 level before dipping on strong GBPJPY selling to test towards the 1.2510 level and into the stronger bids, the market then held through to the grey hour in the 1.2520 area before slowly rising through to the opening levels into the London session, after the first hour the market started a slow slide lower through to test the lows again into the 1.2510 areas before moving to the London close and the ECB’s Draghi committing to easing, remember that it took them 8yrs previously to act on anything and then only half of what they said, however, the Euro dropped quickly across the board and the Cable benefited from the move rising quickly through to the 1.2560 levels dipping back to the 1.2550 area and then ranging to the close around the 1.2560 level to the close.
- JPY: Moving from the opening around the 108.55 level the market held quietly through into the Tokyo session before dipping away with a round of GBPJPY selling moving through the market to hold in the 108.30’s for a brief period, the move to the grey hour saw limited selling and the market holding around the 108.30 levels, with early London slowly selling through to the 108.20 level for the bulk of that session, ECB comments saw the USDJPY initially as EURJPY selling moved in to test through the 108.10 level however, this seemed to trigger strong USDJPKY buying and the market move quickly back to the opening levels only to trade back to the 108.40 level almost as quick and then catching the buyers a little on the move back and a spike to the 108.20 level before bouncing again and stabilizing around the 108.40 level for a long steady range through to the close.
- AUD: A slow rise through into the Tokyo session saw meagre gains to the 0.6856 areas before dipping on the very dovish RBA minutes to test the 0.6840 level and eventually pushing the mid 30’s before slowly recovering and holding through into the London session before a second dip this time to the low 0.6830’s before recovering again back to the 0.6840 areas and a slow rise into the NYK session, strong buying in NYK saw the market rising through to the 0.7870 areas and ranging with a limited reaction to the ECB commentary to make the highs just above the 0.6880 level before ranging quietly just below the highs to the close.
- EUR: A slow rise through the Asian session saw the market moving into the early London session testing above the 1.1240 levels before Draghi’s comments and a sudden sharp drop back to the 1.1190 level eventually testing through to the 1.1180 level and the base for the day, even though buyers appeared the market continuously rejected the 1.1210 areas on its move through to the London close and Trumps comments on currency manipulation hampered any attempts to recover with the market eventually narrowing down the range on the move through to the close once London was closed to finish just below the 1.1200 level.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Q2 A 103.5 | P 103.8
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Q/Q Q1 A -3.00% | C -2.60% | P -2.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Minutes Jun
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Apr A 1.53B | C 16.4B | P 17.9B | R 18.6B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M May (F) A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y May (F) A 1.20% | C 1.20% | P 1.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y May (F) A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun A -21.1 | C -5.8 | P -2.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW Current Situation Jun A 7.8 | C 6.1 | P 8.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun A -20.2 | C -3.6 | P -1.6
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Sales M/M Apr A -0.60% | C 0.40% | P 2.10% | R 2.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts May A 1.27M | C 1.24M | P 1.24M | R 1.28M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits May A 1.29M | C 1.30M | P 1.29M | R 1.28M
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (NZD) Q1 A 0.675B | C 0.16B | P -3.26B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) May A 0.97T | C -0.80T | P -0.11T
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