Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.792 | EURUSD 1.13695 | AUDUSD 0.69852| NZDUSD 0.66798 | USDCAD 1.3127 | USDCHF 0.97797 | GBPUSD 1.26886 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13751 | 1.1349
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.133 | 107.65
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26977 | 1.26748
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98094 | 0.9774
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69995 | 0.69842
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31344 | 1.31176
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.66872 | 0.66741
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11365 | 1.11161
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89629 | 0.89502
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.799 | 122.425
For Today
- GBP: A slow start to the day rising through to test towards the 1.2700 levels before drifting back and testing through the 1.2690 level and eventually testing through to the 1.2680 level for the move into the grey hour, strong congestion above the 1.2760 level with possibly weak stops on a test through the 1.2780 areas and a quick push through the sentimental levels and momentum building to a stronger test through to the 1.2900 level and limited congestion in the area likely to slow the rise however, very little technical wise to stop further movement higher other than Brexit news. Downside Strong congestion on any move through the 1.2650 level and building into the 1.2620-00 area, a dip through the level is likely to see some weak stops however, the downside is possibly going to see better buyers moving in on any dips through towards the 1.2500Â levels and limited interest from sellers for the time being.
- JPY: The move through the early part of the session saw the market drifting a little before reversing the lows around the 107.65 area saw the market start to rise quickly through to the 108.00 level helped by the tentative peace initiative between the US and China, once through the figure level the market pushed steadily through to the 108.15 area for the move into the grey hour, Congestion likely through the downside with weak stops on a break through the 106.80 areas and support are likely to start appearing on any push through to the 106.20-00 areas and the congestion then increasing on any attempt to break through to the 105.80 levels. Topside offers with weak stops likely on a break above the 108.30 areas and opening a move through to the 108.80-109.00 level where better offers are likely to appear.
- AUD: Moving quietly through the early part of the day into the Tokyo session and rising through to the 70 cents area in limited trading before drifting back to the low 0.6990 areas for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers from the current levels are a little thin but increase as the market pushes towards the 0.6980 level with weak stops on a move through the 0.7050 and then some stronger offers appearing to slow the market from squeezing higher, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
- EUR: Rising from the 1.1370 level the move to the topside saw limited action and once into the Tokyo session and drifting through to the opening levels the market dipped quickly to the 1.1360 level before slowly drifting again and repeating the move to hold around the 1.1350 level for the move into the grey hour, , Congestive offers still remain to the topside with possible weak stops above the 1.1420 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1440-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1480-1.1500 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance to the 1.1550 level and the market moving into the ranges from last summer, downside bids light back through to the 1.1350 area with some possible stronger congestion in the area however, through there leaves very little until the approach of the 1.1320-00 area where some older bids could still be holding
Overnight News
USD:
Trump’s impulsive approach to China makes US vulnerable FT
Teardown of Huawei’s latest model shows reliance on US sourcing Nikkei
Containment plan: How Trump can challenge China’s rising power Nationalinterest
San Francisco Fed’s Daly says US labour market is very tight BBG
Daly: Plateauing wage growth gives me pause BBG
Daly: Uncomfortable inflation lower than target BBG
Daly: May have to do more to drive inflation above 2% target BBG
Daly: A little inflation right now would be welcome BBG
Daly: Inflation has been softer since may meeting BBG
Daly: She doesn’t see a recession around the corner BBG
Daly: Lingering trade headwinds to slow economic momentum BBG
Daly: Aim of rate cut would’ve be to get economy back to potential – BBG
EUR:
Loophole may let ECB buy unlimited government debt BLG
USD/EUR/IRR:
Iran, will exceed uranium limits unless Europeans act – ABC
OIL:
WTI’s Big rally has room to keep running, technically BBG
CNY:
China says Pork supply to tighten this year, Armyworm spreading BBG
China’s economy slows further as Trump, Xi set to meet BBG
NZD:
RBNZ to match cuts of other Central Banks DJ
USD/CNY:
Trump ready for tariff with China Politico
These giant cranes show why the next fight in the US-China trade war could be so damaging – WPT
Trump warns of plan B on China trade: Billions more in tariffs BBG
Huawei personnel worked with China military on research projects BBG
US and China agree tentative truce before G20 SCMP
Trump and Xi to meet at 1130am on Saturday in Osaka (0230GMT)
EUR/USD/CNY:
EU commissioner on US-China trade war… Countermeasures ready Spiegel
SGD:
MAS sees no policy impact from US treasury report
Menon Mas: concerns over facebook libra not trivial
Inflation to remain subdued within forecast range
No significant shift in business, funds from Hong Kong
Global economy is not headed for crash
Reviewing 1.5-2.5% GDP forecast range for 2019
Prolonged Hong Kong uncertainty not good for Singapore
GDP growth likely to be weaker than previous est.
Monetary policy stance remains appropriate
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade (YoY) (MAY) A 1.2% | C 1.2% | P 0.5% | R 0.4%
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (MAY) A 0.3% | C 0.6% | P 0.0% | R -0.1%
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Large Retailers’ Sales (MAY) A -0.5% | C 0.2% | P -1.8%
NZD Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Activity Outlook (JUN) A 8.0 | P 8.5
NZD Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence (JUN) A -38.1 | P -32
CNY Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Profits (YoY) (MAY) A 1.1% | P -3.7%
JPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Wakatabe speaks in Aomori
09:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUN) C 104.7 | P 105.1
09:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (JUN) C 0.28 | P 0.3
09:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (JUN) C -3.0 | P -2.9
09:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (JUN) C 12.4 | P 12.2
09:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUN F) C -7.2 | P -7.2
12:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EUR German CPI (MoM) (JUN P) C 0.2% | P 0.2%
12:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EUR German CPI (YoY) (JUN P) C 1.4% | P 1.4%
12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USD GDP Annualized (QoQ) (1Q T) C 3.2% | P 3.1%
12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USD Personal Consumption (1Q T) C 1.3% | P 1.3%
12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 22) C 219k | P 216k
12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USD GDP Price Index (1Q T) C 0.8% | P 0.8%
12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USD Continuing Claims (JUN 15) P 1662k
12:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USD Core PCE (QoQ) (1Q T) C 1.0% | P 1.0%
14:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (MAY) C 1.0% | P -1.5%
14:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (MAY) P 0.4%
22:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (JUN) P -3.2%
22:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (JUN) P 119.3
23:01Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (JUN) C -11 | P -10
23:01Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JUN) P 10
23:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY Jobless Rate (MAY) C 2.4% | P 2.4%
23:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (MAY) C 1.63 | P 1.63
23:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) C 1.0% | P 1.1%
23:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN) C 1.0% | P 1.1%
23:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN) C 0.8% | P 0.8%
23:50Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
23:50Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY P) C 0.7% | P 0.6%
23:50Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY P)Â C -3.0% | P -1.1%
Harry Hindsight
Â
- GBP: A limited 50 pip range over the course of the day, opening quietly around the 1.2690 level the market ranged quietly into the Tokyo session dipping a little from there to the 1.2680 area and running to the grey hour before extending the lows testing through to the 1.2665 level for a limited range around the 1.2670 areas and a slow rise through to the late morning session to test towards the 1.2710 levels before dropping quickly back as the early NYK sellers moved into the market and another test to the lows, the move through to the end of the session saw the market moving back to the opening levels and a slow range around the opening level to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY rose quietly in the Tokyo session after a quiet move into that session, testing through to the 107.50 levels from the opening around the 107.20 areas, and holding steady just below the level through deep into the London session, the break through the 107.50 level saw the market quickly test to the 107.70 areas and another long drawn out tight range to just after the London close before extending the highs through to the 107.85 areas before drifting to the close.
- AUD: Rising through the day, the Oz opened around the 0.6960 level with minor selling early in the day to test the 0.6955 areas and apart from a brief spike to towards the 0.6950 level the market remained in a slow push to the London session before accelerating through the 0.6970 level for a push through in early morning to the mid 0.6990’s, failing and drifting back through to deep into the NYK session dipping into the 0.6970’s before again trying and failing for the second time and drifting to a close just below the highs.
- EUR: Reasonable quiet until deep into the NYK session, opening around the 1.1370 levels the market moved through into Asia testing initially to the 1.1360 level before rising a little through the opening level into the Tokyo session, Tokyo now in full flow saw limited selling with the market drifting through to the 1.1355 areas and holding quietly through into the London session to start a slow rise through to the opening levels before drifting back and ranging around the 1.1360 level through deep into the NYK session before seeing a steady grind through to make the highs of the day around the 1.1390 level before drifting back to the close almost unchanged.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Official Cash Rate (JUN 26) A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
EUR Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence (JUL) A 9.8 | C 10 | P 10.1
CHF Â Â Â Â Â Â Credit Suisse Survey Expectations (JUN) A -30 | P -14.3
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â BBA Loans for House Purchase (MAY) A 42400 | C 41000 | P 42989
GBP Â Â Â Â Â Â BOE’s Carney, Cunliffe, Tenreyro and Saunders Speak
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 21) A 1.3% | P -3.4%
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders (MAY P) A -1.3% | C -0.1% | P -2.1% | R -2.8%
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation (MAY P) A 0.3% | C 0.1% | P 0.0% | R -0.1%
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance (MAY) A -$74.5b | C -$71.9b | P -$72.1b
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Inventories (MoM) (MAY) A 0.5% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (MAY P) A 0.4% | C 0.5% | P 0.8% | R 0.9%
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUN 21) A -1.2788K | C -2837K | P -3106k
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUN 21) A -996k | C -330.64k | P -1692k
USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Fed’s Daly Speaks to the Forecasters Club of New York
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.