Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.792 | EURUSD 1.13697 | AUDUSD 0.70087| NZDUSD 0.66995| USDCAD 1.30952 | USDCHF 0.97657 | GBPUSD 1.26718 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13762 | 1.13627

USDJPY                 107.818 | 107.562

GBPUSD               1.26786 | 1.2667

USDCHF               0.97692 | 0.97531

AUDUSD              0.70117 | 0.69988

USDCAD               1.31008 | 1.30867

NZDUSD               0.67084 | 0.66907

EURCHF                1.11068 | 1.10835

EURGBP               0.89751 | 0.89664

EURJPY                 122.564 | 122.297

For Today

  • GBP: A very quiet Friday session with the market opening just above the 1.2670 level and slowly rising towards the 1.2680 level and then drifting back to hold the opening level for the move into the grey hour, strong congestion above the 1.2760 level with possibly weak stops on a test through the 1.2780 areas and a quick push through the sentimental levels and momentum building to a stronger test through to the 1.2900 level and limited congestion in the area likely to slow the rise however, very little technical wise to stop further movement higher other than Brexit news. Downside Strong congestion on any move through the 1.2650 level and building into the 1.2620-00 area, a dip through the level is likely to see some weak stops however, the downside is possibly going to see better buyers moving in on any dips through towards the 1.2500  levels and limited interest from sellers for the time being.
  • JPY: Opening on its highs the USDJPY spent much of its session drifting from just above the 107.80 level to test lightly through the 107.60 level deep into the Tokyo session before recovering half the move for the move into the grey hour in very quiet trading, Congestion likely through the downside with weak stops on a break through the 106.80 areas and support are likely to start appearing on any push through to the 106.20-00 areas and the congestion then increasing on any attempt to break through to the 105.80 levels. Topside offers with weak stops likely on a break above the 108.30 areas and opening a move through to the 108.80-109.00 level where better offers are likely to appear.
  • AUD: The opening saw the market drifting from above the 70 cents level ranging initially around the 0.7005 level for much of the session with one dip through the 70 cent level before recovering and a slow rise through to the grey hour pushing the 0.7010 for the high of the day, Topside offers from the current levels are a little thin but increase as the market pushes towards the 0.7020 level with weak stops on a move through the 0.7050 and then some stronger offers appearing to slow the market from squeezing higher, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
  • EUR: A quiet range like the rest of the pairs with an early move in Tokyo setting the highs around the 1.1375 level before drifting back through the opening level to test to the 1.1365 area for the move into the grey hour, Congestive offers still remain to the topside with possible weak stops above the 1.1420 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1440-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1480-1.1500 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance to the 1.1550 level and the market moving into the ranges from last summer, downside bids light back through to the 1.1350 area with some possible stronger congestion in the area however, through there leaves very little until the approach of the 1.1320-00 area where some older bids could still be holding

 

 

Overnight News

World:

Concerns mount over reckless 2008 style lending in the $52T shadow – UKT

CNY:

China to insist US lift Huawei ban as part of trade deal – WSJ

USD:

Fed’s Daly says too early to know need or size of cut – BBG

AUD:

Australian swap rates offer scope for deeper cuts – BBG

USD/CNY:

US-China dispute: it’s not just about trade and it won’t be easy – The Hill

US-China real breakthrough in medium term very difficult – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (JUN) A 2.8% | P -3.2%

NZD       ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (JUN) A 122.6 | P 119.3

GBP        GfK Consumer Confidence (JUN) A -13 | C -11 | P -10

GBP        Lloyds Business Barometer (JUN) A 13 | P 10

JPY         Jobless Rate (MAY) A 2.4% | C 2.4% | P 2.4%

JPY         Job-To-Applicant Ratio (MAY) A 1.62 | C 1.63 | P 1.63

JPY         Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) A1.1% | C 1.0% | P 1.1%

JPY         Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN) A 0.9% | C 1.0% | P 1.1%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN) A 0.8% | C 0.8% | P 0.8%

JPY         BOJ Summary of Opinions

JPY         Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY P) A 2.3% | C 0.7% | P 0.6%

JPY         Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY P) A -1.8% | C -3.0% | P -1.1%

JPY         First Day of G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan

01:30     AUD       Private Sector Credit (MoM) (MAY) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%

05:00     JPY         Housing Starts (YoY) (MAY) A -8.7% | C -4.2% | P -5.7%

06:00     EUR        German Import Price Index (MoM) (MAY) C -0.2% | P 0.3%

06:00     EUR        German Import Price Index (YoY) (MAY) C -0.2% | P 1.4%

07:00     CHF        KOF Leading Indicator (JUN) C 94.9 | P 94.4

08:30     GBP        GDP (QoQ) (1Q F) C 0.5% | P 0.5%

08:30     GBP        GDP (YoY) (1Q F) C 1.8% | P 1.8%

08:30     GBP        Current Account Balance (1Q) C -32.0b | P -23.7b

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone CPI Core (YoY) (JUN A) C 0.9% | P 0.8%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (JUN) C 1.2% | P 1.2%

12:30     CAD       GDP (MoM) (APR) C 0.2% | P 0.5%

12:30     CAD       GDP (YoY) (APR) C 1.5% | P 1.4%

12:30     CAD       Industrial Product Price (MoM) (MAY) C 0.0% | P 0.8%

12:30     USD        Personal Income (MAY) C 0.3% | P 0.5%

12:30     USD        Personal Spending (MAY) C 0.5% | P 0.3%

12:30     USD        Real Personal Spending (MAY) C 0.4% | P 0.0%

12:30     USD        PCE Deflator (MoM) (MAY) C 0.2% | P 0.3%

12:30     USD        PCE Deflator (YoY) (MAY) C 1.5% | P 1.5%

12:30     USD        PCE Core (MoM) (MAY) C 0.2% | P 0.2%

12:30     USD        PCE Core (YoY) (MAY) C 1.6% | P 1.6%

13:45     USD        Chicago Purchasing Manager (JUN) C 54 | P 54.2

14:00     USD        U. of Mich. Sentiment (JUN F) C 97.9 | P 97.9

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Moving quietly through into the Tokyo session pushing quietly through to the 1.2695 level before dipping back on light selling through to the 1.2680 and ranging through to the London session around that level, London were quick buyers taking the market through the 1.2700 in a quick move before dipping back just as quickly to the 1.2680 level and then running higher at a steady pace through to the 1.2720 levels to make the highs of the day and holding through to the NYK session around the 1.2710 levels before dipping with the USD gaining ground on slightly weaker data for some reason, possibly fitting in with current mixtures of interest, the market then traded around the 1.2670 level posting lows just above the 1.2660 areas to the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY moved through into the Tokyo session slowly drifting from the opening levels through to the 107.65 area before recovering and heading quickly through the opening 107.75 level testing quickly through to the 108.00 level and ranging for a limited period before slowly rising through to the 108.10 areas topping around the 108.15 level into the London session before starting a slow steady drift lower through to the opening levels and ranging quietly around the 107.80-90 areas through to deep into the NYK session before moving to challenge the lows, the market had a long run to the close rising lightly to finish the day unchanged.
  • AUD: A limited day with much of it driving towards the 0.7000 level having opened around the 0.6985 level, the early Tokyo session saw the figure level tested for the first time before ranging in the 0.6985-75 areas for the move into London, even London saw the same range and it wasn’t until the market moved deeper into NYK before the next strong attempt at the 70 cents levels saw a push through, it was short lived and the rest of the time was spent rising from just below to make the highs around the 0.7008 level for the close.
  • EUR: Limited day for the Euro opening around the 1.1370 level the market struggled to rise much beyond the 1.1375 level before moving deeper into Tokyo and dipping through on a steady drift through to the London opening testing just through the 1.1350 level, early buyers saw the market returning to the opening levels and ranging around the level and make the highs for the day just beyond the 1.1380 level before again holding the opening levels in a long move to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Retail Trade (YoY) (MAY) A 1.2% | C 1.2% | P 0.5% | R 0.4%

JPY         Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (MAY) A 0.3% | C 0.6% | P 0.0% | R -0.1%

JPY         Large Retailers’ Sales (MAY) A -0.5% | C 0.2% | P -1.8%

NZD       ANZ Activity Outlook (JUN) A 8.0 | P 8.5

NZD       ANZ Business Confidence (JUN) A -38.1 | P -32

CNY        Industrial Profits (YoY) (MAY) A 1.1% | P -3.7%

JPY         BOJ Wakatabe speaks in Aomori

EUR        Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUN) A 103.3 | C 104.7 | P 105.1

EUR        Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (JUN)         A 0.17 | C 0.28 | P 0.3

EUR        Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (JUN) A -5.6 | C -3.0 | P -2.9

EUR        Euro-Zone Services Confidence (JUN) A 11.0 | C 12.4 | P 12.2

EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUN F) A -7.2 | C -7.2 | P -7.2

EUR        German CPI (MoM) (JUN P) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%

EUR        German CPI (YoY) (JUN P) A 1.6% | C 1.4% | P 1.4%

USD        GDP Annualized (QoQ) (1Q T) A 3.1% | C 3.2% | P 3.1%

USD        Personal Consumption (1Q T) A 0.9% | C 1.3% | P 1.3%

USD        Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 22) A 227K | C 219k | P 216k | R 217K

USD        GDP Price Index (1Q T) A 0.9% | C 0.8% | P 0.8%

USD        Continuing Claims (JUN 15) A 1688k | C 1.665k | P 1662k | R 1666k

USD        Core PCE (QoQ) (1Q T) A 1.2% | C 1.0% | P 1.0%

USD        Pending Home Sales (MoM) (MAY) A1.1% | C 1.0% | P -1.5%

USD        Pending Home Sales (YoY) (MAY) A -0.8% | P 0.4%

 

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Exchange has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Exchange will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Exchange does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Exchange or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange will clearly identify and mark any content it publishes or that is approved by LMAX Exchange.

FX and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses exceeding your deposit. They are not suitable for everyone so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. The information on this website is not directed at residents of the United States of America, Australia (we will only deal with Australian clients who are "wholesale clients" as defined under the Corporations Act 2001), Canada (although we may deal with Canadian residents who meet the "Permitted Client" criteria), Singapore or any other jurisdiction where FX trading and/or CFD trading is restricted or prohibited by local laws or regulations.