Daily FX Market Commentary

Happy celebration of a storm that saved your bacon,

 

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.829 | EURUSD 1.12777 | AUDUSD 0.70303 | NZDUSD 0.67036 | USDCAD 1.3059 | USDCHF 0.98647 | GBPUSD 1.25737 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12950 | 1.12805

USDJPY                 107.834 | 107.708

GBPUSD               1.25913 | 1.25757

USDCHF               0.98656 | 0.9857

AUDUSD              0.70478 | 0.70299

USDCAD               1.30677 | 1.3056

NZDUSD               0.67198 | 0.67048

EURCHF                1.11384 | 1.11263

EURGBP               0.89744 | 0.89676

EURJPY                 121.696 | 121.582

 

For Today

  • GBP: A light test from the opening 1.2575 area opening to test through to the 1.2590 level before drifting back to the 1.2580 level for the move through to the grey hour with limited volume, downside bids remain through to the 1.2550 levels and are likely to increase on a test through the level increasing the closer the market moves towards the 1.2500 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 1.2500 area to open a deeper move, topside offers light through to the 1.2650 areas with limited congestion in the area building to stronger level into and through 1.2700 with some light stops through the level, further pushes are likely to see stronger offers increasing through the 1.2750 level and weak stops likely on a strong push through the 1.2780 areas.
  • JPY: USDJPY drifted through the first half of the session dipping from the opening just above the 107.80 level to test through to the low 107.70’s before slowly recovering through the second half of the session on limited news and volume, downside light bids through to the congested 107.40-20 areas and likely to continue until the 106.80 areas break with weak stops likely to dominate the downside through to the 106.50 areas before some bids are likely to reappear, topside offers cleared through to the 108.50 level however, congestion still remains and likely to increase on any test to the 108.80 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 109.00 level and stronger congestion in the 108.40-60 areas likely to limit further gains.
  • AUD: Similar pattern for the Oz with the market holding its opening level just above the 0.7030 area and basing through the first half of the session on that line before pushing gradually towards the 0.7050 level and clearing some of the offers however, the highs were short lived and the market returned to trade around the 0.7035 areas through to the grey hour, Topside offers from the current levels are a little thin on a move through the 0.7050 and then some stronger offers appearing to slow the market from squeezing higher, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
  • EUR: Pushing from the opening level the Euro slowly traded through to hold just below the 1.1290 level before pushing lightly through to test to the 1.1295 and the high of the day in limited volume and as with the other pairs it dropped back from those highs to hold just above the 1.1280 areas through to the grey hour with limited volume, topside with possible weak stops above the 1.1320 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1340-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1400 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance through the topside and the market, downside bids congested on any dip through the 1.1260 areas and likely to continue into the 1.1240 level however, even though it lightens a little the move through the 1.1200 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dip to test the 1.1150 level.

 

Overnight News

 

USD/CNY/EUR:

Trump: China and Europe playing big currency manipulation game

USD:

White house econ adviser Kudlow: Next round of face to face China-US trade talks will take place soon

Won’t lift existing tariffs during China trade talks

Hopes China keeps its commitments to make big purchase of US goods – Trade the News

Trump administration is in the process of scheduling a call next week between US and Chinese trade principals – USTR official

AUD:

Weak Australian retail sales, job slowdown point to third RBA rate cut

GBP/CNY:

Britain and China wage war of words over Hong Kong

USD/IRR:

Trump warns Iran threats will come back to bite you

GBP:

Brexit backers help PM candidate Johnson extend lead in funding battle

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P -0.1%

06:30     CHF        CPI (MoM) (JUN) C -0.1% | P 0.3%

06:30     CHF        CPI (YoY) (JUN) C 0.5% | P 0.6%

06:30     CHF        CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (JUN) P -0.2%

06:30     CHF        CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUN) P 0.5%

06:30     CHF        CPI Core (YoY) (JUN) C 0.6% | P 0.6%

07:00     EUR        ECB Chief Economist Lane Speaks in Frankfurt

07:30     EUR        Markit Germany Construction PMI (JUN) P 51.4

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) C 0.4% | P -0.4%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) C 1.6% | P 1.5%

09:10     EUR        ECB’s de Guindos, Enria, Koenig Speak at Conference in Lisbon

11:00     MXN      Consumer Confidence Index (JUN) P 108.1

23:30     JPY         Overall Household Spending (YoY) (MAY) C 1.4% | P 1.3%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A steady drift through the Asian session with the early range contained in the 1.2590-1.2600 levels before moving through to the grey hour testing below the 1.2590 area, the move into the London session saw the market dropping away through to the 1.2570 level pausing and then dropping for the second move to test through to the 1.2560 levels and forming the base for the day, slow ranging move back through to the 1.2590 level in a choppy morning session saw the NYK session again selling the market back to the lows and only once London closed did the market again force itself lightly pushing to the 1.2580 areas for the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened on its highs before dropping back in early trading slightly and then a move into the Tokyo session dipping fairly quickly through to the 107.55 areas and the low for the day, a steady move through the Tokyo session saw the market moving into the grey hour testing the 107.70 level and holding quietly around the level through to the NYK session, a minor dip in NYK moved the market towards the lows before recovering just as quickly and rising through to the 107.80 before pausing, some movement around the US numbers before rising through towards the 107.90 levels before steadying for the move to the close.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.6990 levels the market ranged around the area to deep into the Tokyo session dipping through to the 0.6985 level before moving through to the grey hour testing the 0.7000 level for the move into London, London was unable to capitalize on the initial push and it was deep into the morning session before the market pushed through the level triggering some weak stops on the move and a push above the 0.7010 area and then pausing to wait for fresh input from the NYK session to test above the 0.7020 level and pausing for a second time, a slow grind through to close to the 0.7040 level saw the market ranging through the balance of the day in the 0.7030-40 area to the close.
  • EUR: Range bound through the day the market traded around the 1.1290 through the Tokyo session before moving into the London session and dipping away through to make the low just through the 1.1270 levels before starting a slow recovery through to the opening levels, and after a brief pause into the NYK session pushed through to the 1.1300 level and rejected the level testing back to the 1.1280 levels US numbers didn’t help the USD and it wasn’t long before the market was pushing the figure level again and the break through eventually tested quickly through the 1.1310 levels and dropping quickly and then held around the 1.1280 level through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       QV House Prices (YoY) (JUN) A 2.0% | P 2.3%

AUD       AiG Performance of Service Index (JUN) A 52.2 | P 52.5

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Services (JUN F) A 52.6 | P 53.3

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Composite (JUN F) A 52.5 | P 53.1

GBP        BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUN) A -0.1% | P 0.8%

JPY         Markit Japan PMI Composite (JUN) A 50.8 | P 50.7

JPY         Markit Japan PMI Services (JUN) A 51.9 | P 51.7

NZD       ANZ Commodity Price (JUN) A -3.9% | P 0.1%

AUD       Building Approvals (YoY) (MAY) A -19.6% | C -21.5% | P -23.4%

AUD       Building Approvals (MoM) (MAY) A 0.7% | C 0.0% | P -3.4%

AUD       Trade Balance (MAY) A A$5.745b| C A$5.250b | P A$4.871b

CNY        Caixin China PMI Composite (JUN) A 50.6 | P 51.5

CNY        Caixin China PMI Services (JUN) A 52 | C 52.6 | P 52.7

EUR        Markit Italy Services PMI (JUN) A 50.5 | C 50.0 | P 50.0

EUR        Markit Italy Composite PMI (JUN) A 50.1 | C 49.5 | P 49.9

EUR        Markit France Services PMI (JUN F) A 52.9 | C 53.1 | P 53.1

EUR        Markit France Composite PMI (JUN F) A 52.7 | C 52.9 | P 52.9

EUR        Markit Germany Services PMI (JUN F) A 55.8 | C 55.6 | P 55.6

EUR        Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JUN F) A 52.6 | C 52.6 | P 52.6

EUR        Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JUN F) A 53.6 | C 53.4 | P 53.4

EUR        Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JUN F) 52.2 | C 52.1 | P 52.1

GBP        Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (JUN) A 50.2 | C 51.0 | P 51.0

GBP        Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (JUN) A 49.7 | C 51.0 | P 50.9

USD        MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 28) A -0.1% | P 1.3%

USD        Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (JUN) A 12.8% | P 85.9%

USD        ADP Employment Change (JUN) A 102k | C 140k | P 27k  | R 41k

CAD       Intl Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (MAY) A 0.76b | C -17b | P -0.97b | R -1.08b

USD        Trade Balance (MAY) A -$55.5b | C -$53.4b | P -$50.8b | R -51.2b

USD        Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 29) A 221k | C 220k | P 227k | R 229k

USD        Continuing Claims (JUN 22) A 1686k | C 1681k | P 1688k | R 1694k

USD        Markit US Services PMI (JUN F) A 51.5 | C 50.7 | P 50.7

USD        Markit US Composite PMI (JUN F) A 51.5 | P 50.6

USD        Factory Orders (MAY) A -0.7% | C -0.5% | P -0.8% | R 1.2%

USD        Factory Orders Ex Trans (MAY) A 0.1% | P 0.2%

USD        Durable Goods Orders (MAY F) A -1.3% | C -1.3% | P -1.3%

USD        Durables Ex Transportation (MAY F) P 0.3%

USD        ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (JUN) C 56.0 | P 56.9

USD        DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUN 28) P -1.28m

USD        EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUN 28) P 98

 

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