Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.742 | EURUSD 1.12208 | AUDUSD 0.70442 | NZDUSD 0.67616 | USDCAD 1.30601 | USDCHF 0.9817 | GBPUSD 1.25044 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD              1.12200 | 1.12083

USDJPY                108.069 | 107.701

GBPUSD              1.25178 | 1.24906

USDCHF               0.98402 | 0.98166

AUDUSD             0.70474 | 0.70381

USDCAD              1.30681 | 1.30535

NZDUSD              0.67803 | 0.6757

EURCHF               1.10355 | 1.10119

EURGBP              0.89752 | 0.89606

EURJPY                121.140 | 120.809

For Today

  • GBP: Wide opening saw the market dipping to the 1.2490 level before quickly stabbing above the 1.2515 areas and holding quietly through to the Tokyo session and then ranging around the 1.2500-10 areas through to the grey hour basing along the lower end. Downside bids light through to the 1.2440 level before stronger bids start to appear and continue through to the 1.2400-1.2380 area, a breach through the level is likely to see some weak stops with congestion likely to appear on that dip and possible stronger bids into the 1.2360 area before opening the market to a deeper move with sentimental levels around the 50-00 areas likely to be limited. Topside offers likely to be weak through to the 1.2550 areas before stronger offers begin to appear, with limited offers through to the 1.2600 level where stronger offers are likely.
  • JPY: A slow move through into the Tokyo session rising eventually from the opening 107.70-80 areas before rising quickly through to the 108.00 areas then holding quietly just below the figure through to the grey hour, downside bids light through to the 107.20 area where they are likely to increase through to the 106.80 level with possibly strong stops through the level with congestion through to the 106.00 area but only likely to slow the decline rather than stop it. Topside offers light through to the 108.00 areas with weak stops on any move through to the 108.50 level likely to meet congestion and continuing through to the 108.80-109.00 level where offers are likely to be stronger.
  • AUD: A very quiet narrow range through the session with the market opening around the 0.7040 level and although it did probe towards the 0.7050 area a couple of times however, for the most part it remained mired around the 0.7040 level through to the grey hour with minor dips below, topside offers likely to be fairly strong into the 0.7040-60 area with possible strong stops on a push through the level and limited offers from the 0.7080-0.7120 area and the topside likely to quickly push for the 0.7150 areas on a break, Downside bids light through the 69 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a move through the 0.6850 level and increasing the closer to the 68 cents level the market gets.
  • EUR: Another quiet session, with the market ranging quietly in a very quiet 1.1215-20 areas before dipping through to the 1.1210 level before rising slowly back into the previous range for the move into the grey hour, topside weak offers through to the 1.1280 areas before stronger offers start to appear, weak stops above the 1.1320 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1340-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1400 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance, downside bids into the 1.1200 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dip to test the 1.1150 level with weakness through the level and the market opening to the 1.1100-1.1080 level and stronger bids

 

Overnight News

MXN:

S&P Could accelerate Mexico review if recession hits – RTRs

GBP:

UK sends Nuclear sub to take up station near Hormuz straits – BBG

UK’s Hunt speaks to German, French counterparts on seized tanker

PM to hold emergency meeting on seized tanker

USD:

Pelosi, Mnuchin discussed debt ceiling Saturday, will talk again

Rosengren says Forex is responsibility of the US treasury

JPY:

Japan PM Abe’s LDP led coalition government expected to win half of the open seats in today’s upper house elections

AUD:

RBA Gov. Lowe has increasingly called for fiscal support to reduce economy’s reliance on monetary stimulus

CNY:

China’s new US farm goods import plan shows commitment – Xinhua

USD/MXN:

Pompeo and Mexican counterpart welcome slower migrant flow

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

12:30     USD        Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JUN) C 0.1 | P -0.05

15:00     USD        BoJ’s Kuroda Speaks at IMF in Washington

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quick drop on the opening saw the market pushing to the 1.2525 level before starting a steady climb back to the closing level on the move into the Tokyo session and the highs of the day around the 1.2555 area, the market held through midsession before starting a more sedate descent through to the London opening holding through to deep into NYK and rising on occasions to the 1.2545 level before the end of the London session saw the market drifting through to test the 1.2500 levels, a dip through late in the session through to the 1.2475 level before bouncing and holding around the 1.2500 level for the close.
  • JPY: Opening around the 107.30 areas the market dipped a little into the Tokyo opening and rallying quickly then to the 107.60 areas before drifting a little into early morning, before starting a slow steady rise through the day moving into the London session holding around the 107.60-70 areas, the move through the NYK session saw very little movement nudging the high to the 107.75 areas and only late in the session did the market blip higher to quickly move towards the 108.00 area before drifting off and holding quietly through the 107.75 area to the close.
  • AUD: Rising from the opening to post the high of the day just above the 0.7080 areas the market quickly fell back to the 0.7055 level before starting a slow rise through into the Tokyo session and pushing back to the open, the rest of the day was unexciting with the market drifting from those highs through the London session and pushing into the NYK opening holding the 0.7050 and proving to be the mid-range through to the close with the market dipping through to the close holding the 0.7040 areas.
  • EUR: After a quiet opening the market dipped quickly back through the 1.1250 areas before stabilizing and rising through to the 1.1265 areas to move into the London session trading around the 1.1260 level, the market slipped slowly through the London session testing through to the 1.1235 area and then holding quietly before dipping through to the 1.1220 level and ranging around the level through to the close with minor dips towards the 1.1200 level.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | P 0.7%

JPY         National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN) A 0.6% | C 0.6% | P 0.8%

JPY         Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.5%

JPY         All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAY) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.8%

CHF        Real Estate Index Family Homes (2Q) A 469.3 | P 469

EUR        German Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) A -0.4% | C -0.1% | P -0.1%

EUR        German Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) A 1.2% | C 1.5% | P 1.9%

GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing (JUN) A 6.5b | C 3.3b | P 3.8b

GBP        PSNB ex Banking Groups (JUN) A 7.2b | C 3.9b | P 4.5b

CAD       Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) A -0.1% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%

CAD       Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (MAY) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P 0.0%

USD        U. of Mich. Sentiment (JUL P) A 98.4 | C 98.8 | P 98.2

 

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