Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.867 | EURUSD 1.12086 | AUDUSD 0.70354 | NZDUSD 0.6765 | USDCAD 1.31194 | USDCHF 0.98207 | GBPUSD 1.24764 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12104 | 1.11897
USDJPY 108.186 | 107.828
GBPUSD 1.24793 | 1.24548
USDCHF 0.98464 | 0.98181
AUDUSD 0.70356 | 0.70179
USDCAD 1.31377 | 1.31174
NZDUSD 0.67601 | 0.67293
EURCHF 1.10189 | 1.10045
EURGBP 0.89871 | 0.8978
EURJPY 121.084 | 120.851
For Today
• GBP: A slow slide lower through the session with the market moving from just short of the 1.2480 levels dipping slowly through to the grey hour testing the 1.2455 area for the move into London, Downside bids light through to the 1.2440 level before stronger bids start to appear and continue through to the 1.2400-1.2380 area, a breach through the level is likely to see some weak stops with congestion likely to appear on that dip and possible stronger bids into the 1.2360 area before opening the market to a deeper move with sentimental levels around the 50-00 areas likely to be limited. Topside offers likely to be weak through to the 1.2550 areas before stronger offers begin to appear, with limited offers through to the 1.2600 level where stronger offers are likely.
• JPY: A limited rise into the Tokyo session saw the USDJPY lifting off the 107.80 areas to test above the 108.00 level holding quietly to push steadily towards the 108.20 areas into the London session. downside bids light through to the 107.20 area where they are likely to increase through to the 106.80 level with possibly strong stops through the level with congestion through to the 106.00 area but only likely to slow the decline rather than stop it. Topside offers light through to the 108.20 areas with weak stops on any move through to the 108.50 level likely to meet congestion and continuing through to the 108.80-109.00 level where offers are likely to be stronger.
• AUD: A slow drift from the opening saw the Oz initially holding through into the Tokyo session above the 0.7030 levels but eventually slowly pushing through to test through to the grey hour and the 0.7020 areas for the move into London, , topside offers likely to be fairly strong into the 0.7040-60 area with possible strong stops on a push through the level and limited offers from the 0.7080-0.7120 area and the topside likely to quickly push for the 0.7150 areas on a break, Downside bids light through the 70 cents level with limited stops likely to appear before stronger bids start to reappear on a dip through to the 0.6950 level and strong congestion below.
• EUR: A slow but steady drift through the session with some light selling pushing the Euro through the 1.1200 area on an initial test to the 1.1195 areas then holding for several hours around the figure level before renewing its steady decline to push into the grey hour, topside weak offers through to the 1.1280 areas before stronger offers start to appear, weak stops above the 1.1320 level and lighter congestion from there through the usual 1.1340-60 area to build into stronger offers on any push for the 1.1400 area, even through this level the market continues to see resistance, downside bids into the 1.1180 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dip to test the 1.1150 level with weakness through the level and the market opening to the 1.1100-1.1080 level and stronger bids

Overnight News
AUD:
RBA says banks can hold more bonds to meet liquidity requirement – BBG
Australia’s ASX prepares for negative interest rate trading – BBG
RBA’s Kent: Australia long way away from unconventional policy
Kent: AUD might be higher now if not for RBA rate cuts
Kent: RBA will adjust policy if needed to meet targets
Kent: Lower neutral interest rates is a global trend
GBP:
Britain’s urged to buy Euro’s today as exchange rates to crash – Daily Mirror (not known for its Financial news)
IRR:
Iran says it arrested 17 Iranians allegedly recruited by CIA – AP
EUR/USD:
Eurasia group founder and president Ian Bremmer says You can’t fix the Huawei situation
NZD:
Kiwi government must pull autarkic RBNZ into line
RBNZ to refresh unconventional policy strategy as rates drop – BBG
OCR could only fall 35 basis points below zero, treasury says
USD:
Trump says lawmakers reach bipartisan debt limit suspension deal – BBG
House will move fast to vote on debt limit deal – Pelosi
Trump nominee for Fed calls for sharp interest rate cut
CNY:
China’s Xi Jinping is not a god and the backlash against him is building – SYH
KRW:
S. Korea says it has fired warning shots after Russian military planes intruded into its airspace – AP

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN F) P -38.0%
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (JUL) C -15 | P -15
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUL) P 4
10:00 GBP CBI Business Optimism (JUL) C -20 | P -13
13:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAY) C 0.3% | P 0.4%
14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (JUL) C 5 | P 3
14:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL A) C -7.2 | P -7.2
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (JUN) C 5.34m | P 5.34m
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) C -0.1% | P 2.5%
22:45 NZD Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (JUN) C -5105m | P -5492m
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (JUN) C 100m | P 264m
22:45 NZD Exports (JUN) C 5.29b | P 5.81b
22:45 NZD Imports (JUN) C 5.20b | P 5.54b
23:00 AUD CBA Australia PMI Mfg (JUL P) P 52.0
23:00 AUD CBA Australia PMI Services (JUL P) P 52.6
23:00 AUD CBA Australia PMI Composite (JUL P) P 52.5

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Wide opening saw the market move off the 1.2490 level and spike through the 1.2510 level before settling down to trade into the Tokyo session around the 1.2500 levels through to the London session, first hour was limited before dropping quickly back to the 1.2480 level, holding for a short period before heading to the 1.2460 areas to hold quietly into the NYK session, NYK steadily bought through the session pushing the 1.2500 levels before giving up the gains again and a slow run to the close holding the 1.2475 area.
• JPY: A reasonably quiet day through the session rising from early lows around the 107.70 areas to push through the 108.00 level into early morning in Tokyo and holding just below the level through to the London session before drifting off and ranging around the 107.85 area through to the close unable to push back through the 108.00 level.
• AUD: The AUD ranged quietly through the Asia pushing weakly in each direction but unable to capitalize on either the moves above the 0.7045 or below the 0.7040 until moving into the London open where it managed to make the lows of the day just above the 0.7030 level and starting a slow but steady push through to test into the NYK session probing above the 0.7055 level, NYK changed the tack and the market drifted through to the close pushing down to the 0.7035 level for the close in very quiet trading.
• EUR: Euro’s remained mired in a tight 1.1210-25 range throughout the day with only minor dips through the downside and unable to convincingly break the topside with Tokyo setting early lows just below the said range before recovering and then a long drawn out range around the 1.1215 area through London with NYK setting a new low just beyond the 1.1210 level recovering again and then sliding from the highs shortly afterwards to close on the lows.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
12:30 USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JUN) A -0.02 | C 0.1 | P -0.05
15:00 USD BoJ’s Kuroda Speaks at IMF in Washington

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