Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.359 | EURUSD 1.10915 | AUDUSD 0.67776 | NZDUSD 0.64257 | USDCAD 1.32689 | USDCHF 0.9785 | GBPUSD 1.21461 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD              1.11011 | 1.10878

USDJPY                106.478 | 106.24

GBPUSD              1.21730 | 1.21402

USDCHF               0.98018 | 0.97627

AUDUSD             0.67892 | 0.67741

USDCAD              1.32765 | 1.3262

NZDUSD              0.64308 | 0.64116

EURCHF               1.08694 | 1.08354

EURGBP              0.91352 | 0.91198

EURJPY                118.122 | 117.86

For Today

  • GBP: Opening a touch higher the market drifted through to early Tokyo before lifting again to just above the 1.2160 level and holding through into early morning before dipping through to test the 1.2140 levels to make the lows, the bulk of the session saw the market recovering and pushed again towards the highs for the move into the London session, Topside offers into the 1.2200 area with weak stops likely once the market clears the 1.2250 area to open the topside through to the 1.2350 area with limited sentimental offers in between, downside bids back through the 1.2080 areas and then continuing through to the 1.2040 levels with strong congestion likely with stronger bids on any push towards the 1.2020-00 area with those bids increasing on any dips, a break through the 12000 is likely to find willing buyers from the lows at the beginning of 2017 with buyers likely to remain.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened around the 106.25 areas and moving steadily through to the 106.45 area for the move into the Tokyo session holding quietly around the 106.40 levels through to midsession before dipping through to test the lows again before slowly recovering to the closing levels of Friday for the move into the London session, Downside bids likely to be weak through to last week’s 105.00 area with strong bids likely to continue through to the 104.80 area before strong stops are likely to appear for a push steadily through into the 103 handle and the ranges from the end of 2016. Topside offers light through to the 107.50 areas with possible sellers still remaining as Japanese continue to reset their investments away from contentious areas a push through the level will likely to see congestion appearing above the level and limited ability to move.
  • AUD: A very limited range for the Oz opening around the close on Friday and moving quickly to above the 0.6785 areas and ranging around the level through to the into Tokyo around the level, Fixing in Tokyo saw the market dipping back and the market falling back to the 0.6775 area before basing there for a couple of hours before rising quickly through to test towards 0.6790 and then holding the opening level into London. Downside bids likely through the 0.6720 level and then increasing as the market moves towards the 0.6680 area with possible strong stops through the level opening a deeper move with limited congestion around the sentimental areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6820-30 areas before weak stops appear and limited congestion for a move to the 69 cents level and stronger offers.
  • EUR: A reasonably quiet range for the Euro with the market opening a touch higher and moving to test through the 1.1100 areas in early trading before drifting back to the 1.1090 area for the move through to the London session, Downside congestion around the 1.1050 level with stronger bids on a push to the 1.1020-00 areas before limited bids appear through to the 109.80 and stronger stops appearing and minor support through the 1.09 handle. Topside offers through to the 1.1120 area before some weak stops appear and the market opens to the 1.1140-60 areas and stronger congestion and increasing offers on any push to the 1.1180 level.

 

 

Overnight News

USD:

Trump: China’s Huawei is a national security threat

Trump: Had a really good talk with Apples Tim Cook on tariffs

Trump: Cook concerned ref competition from non-tariff Samsung

Trump: Money is pouring into the US; Fed not helping me

Trump: US not going into recession, rest of the world struggling

Trump: We are “Open Not” to doing business with Huawei

Trump: Don’t want Afghanistan to be a laboratory for terror

Trump: Buying Greenland not number one on the burner

Trump: Denmark loses a lot of money on Greenland

Trump: China’s Xi has something in mind to do with trade

Trump: US could cut US force numbers in Afghanistan further

Trump: China wants to make a deal; we’ll see what happens

Trump: China tariffs have cost nothing or very little

USD/CNY:

US set to give Huawei another 90 days to buy from American suppliers – MarketWatch

GBP:

Nearly half of UK voters back no deal Brexit and no PM Corbyn Politico

AUD:

Fed Government reveals timeline to implement its 54 banking royal commission recommendations

Australia well placed to respond to trade disruption – BBG

EUR:

Germany flags high probability on no-deal Brexit FT

Italy’s 5star says Salvini no longer a credible partner NPW

CNY/USD:

US should not expect China to keep Yuan stable alone, says former Senior official with China’s FX watchdog

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Performance Services Index (JUL) A 54.7 | P 53.0

GBP        Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (AUG) A 1.2% | P -0.2%

JPY         Trade Balance (JUL) A -¥126.8b | C -¥194.5b | P ¥589.5b

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUL F) C 0.9% | P 0.9%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL) C -0.4% | P 0.2%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL F) C 1.1% | P 1.3%

 

 

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