Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.636 | EURUSD 1.1078 | AUDUSD 0.67642 | NZDUSD 0.64083 | USDCAD 1.3323 | USDCHF 0.98165 | GBPUSD 1.21259 |
LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.10884 | 1.10784
USDJPY 106.693 | 106.519
GBPUSD 1.21376 | 1.21230
USDCHF 0.98163 | 0.98073
AUDUSD 0.67849 | 0.67554
USDCAD 1.33309 | 1.33144
NZDUSD 0.64244 | 0.64037
EURCHF 1.08812 | 1.08739
EURGBP 0.91426 | 0.91338
EURJPY 118.262 | 118.063
For Today
GBP: A quiet session with the market dipping into the 1.2125 area in early trading before rising through to hold through into the grey hour around the 1.2135 area with a single push to the 1.2140 area before drifting a little to hold just above the 1.2130 area. Topside offers into the 1.2200 area with weak stops likely once the market clears the 1.2250 area to open the topside through to the 1.2350 area with limited sentimental offers in between, downside bids back through the 1.2080 areas and then continuing through to the 1.2040 levels with strong congestion likely with stronger bids on any push towards the 1.2020-00 area with those bids increasing on any dips, a break through the 12000 is likely to find willing buyers from the lows at the beginning of 2017 with buyers likely to remain.
JPY: Contained market with the opening around the 106.60 areas and dipping through to the 106.50 on the release of the RBA minutes before snapping back and pushing to the highs just short of the 106.70 area, the market then drifted through the session again pushing towards the lows towards the 106.50 level. Downside bids likely to be weak through to last week’s 105.00 area with strong bids likely to continue through to the 104.80 area before strong stops are likely to appear for a push steadily through into the 103 handle and the ranges from the end of 2016. Topside offers light through to the 107.50 areas with possible sellers still remaining as Japanese continue to reset their investments away from contentious areas a push through the level will likely to see congestion appearing above the level and limited ability to move.
AUD: Early trading saw the market holding around the opening levels 0.6765 area and then dipping into the Tokyo fix to make the lows around the 0.6755 area before starting a steady rise as the RBA released its minutes pushing the AUD through to the 0.6780-85 area and a quiet range through to the London session, . Downside bids likely through the 0.6720 level and then increasing as the market moves towards the 0.6680 area with possible strong stops through the level opening a deeper move with limited congestion around the sentimental areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6820-30 areas before weak stops appear and limited congestion for a move to the 69 cents level and stronger offers.
EUR: A slow rise from a weak close saw the Euro rise towards the 1.1090 level before holding steadily in a tight range for the bulk of the session just off that level. Downside congestion around the 1.1050 level with stronger bids on a push to the 1.1020-00 areas before limited bids appear through to the 109.80 and stronger stops appearing and minor support through the 1.09 handle. Topside offers through to the 1.1120 area before some weak stops appear and the market opens to the 1.1140-60 areas and stronger congestion and increasing offers on any push to the 1.1180 level.
Overnight News
GBP/EUR:
Boris Johnson appeals directly to Donal Tusk to scrap Brexit backstop – Politico
Boris Johnson tears up Irish backstop in letter to EU after new Brexit clash with Leo Varadkar Tel
AUD/NZD:
ANZ says APRA plan large enough to impact ANZ bank NZ – BBG
APRA plan limits ANZ capacity to inject capital to ANZ NZ unit BBG
APRA to implement plan to cut limits for ADIs exposures BBG
ANZ: APRA ADI related entities exposures limit reduction
CNY:
China Pork in serious trouble as Virus carnage continues – BBG
G7:
G7 summit likely to end without leader’s communique NHK
AUD:
Australia ANZ weekly consumer confidence falls 2.3% to 112.8
RBA: Board would consider further policy easing if needed
RBA to assess developments in domestic, global economies before considering easing
RBA: Reasonable to expect extended period of low interest rates
RBA: Risks to economy tilted to downside in near term, more balanced further out
RBA: Board reviewed experience of developed nations with unconventional monetary policy
RBA: Noted a package of measures tended to be more effective than single steps
RBA: AUD at lowest level in some years, recent fall to support exports, tourism
RBA: Few signs of inflationary pressures emerging downside risks to some CPI components
RBA: More spare capacity in labour market than previously thought, to limit wage growth
RBA: Saw firmer GDP growth in Q2, outlook for consumption more balanced than for some time
RBA: Consumption supported by tax rebates stabilization in housing market
RBA: Escalation in Sino-US trade dispute a downside risk to global growth
RBA: Global companies had already significantly revised down investment intentions
RBA: Further monetary easing widely expected around the world
USD/EUR/IRR:
US conveys to Greece strong view about Iran tanker RTRs
CNY/USD:
White house playing wrong card in its risky game with China China Daily
CHF:
SNB intervention intensifies with a weekly increase of CHF 3.8B
EUR:
Bundesbank sees risk German economy could enter recession – BBG
CNY/TWD:
China lashes out at Taiwan over Hong Kong asylum offer APW
USD/TWD/CNY;
Its $8B, that’s a lot of jobs; Trump ok’s F16 Taiwan deal, Beijing says Consequences
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUD RBA Minutes of August Policy Meeting (AUG)
07:00 JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUL) P 0.0%
Harry Hindsight
GBP: A reasonably quiet Asian session with the Cable opening slightly higher and testing through the 1.2160 level on the opening before moving into the Tokyo session filling the slight gap on the charts and drifting through to the 1.2140 level, from that point onwards the market slowly rose through to the London opening testing the 1.2160 level again and a quick move through to make the highs just beyond the 1.2170 level in early London, Brexit continues to dominate the news and news that Johnson/Varadkar talks didn’t go well and Cable quickly dropping back to the 1.2130 level before slowing and drifting through the session to post lows into the NYK opening around the 1.2105 level, initially a quiet affair but holding above the lows the market started to see a limited recovery through to the London close with the market attempting to push the 1.2160 areas as Johnson reiterates that the Brexit deal is dead with the Backstop not fit for purpose, the market eventually ran out holding around the 1.2130 areas.
JPY: Trading off a low opening the market filled the gap and then pushed quietly through to the Tokyo opening testing towards the 106.50 level before moving steadily back to the lows around the 106.25 level and holding in a tight 106.30-40 area through to the London session with quick GBPJPY buying initially moving the market and some weak stops just above the 106.50 level to take the market through to the 106.65 area before dipping back through 106.60 and holding quietly into the NYK session before pushing to the 106.70 to make the high for the day, the market then drifted around the 106.60 level through to the close with a minor dip into the London close before recovering for the end of the day.
AUD: A tight range through Asia with the market initially probing above the 0.6785 areas and holding through into the Tokyo session before slowly drifting off to the 0.6775 areas and again holding quietly through deep into the session before rising through to test towards the 0.6790 levels and drifting around the area through to deep into the London session before dropping through to the 0.6770 level and then drifting around the 0.6770-80 levels to the close.
EUR: A limited day for the Euro with the market edging up from the opening around the 1.1090 level to push lightly through the 1.1100 level before Tokyo entered and pushed it back to the 1.1090 area and then holding quietly through to the London session around the level before starting a slow rise through from the London opening to test to the 1.1110 level and quiet drift through into the NYK session with a brief spike to make the highs around 1.1115, Johnsons salvo towards the EU saw the Euro dip to the close to make lows in the 1.1075 area before closing just off those lows.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD Performance Services Index (JUL) A 54.7 | P 53.0
GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (AUG) A 1.2% | P -0.2%
JPY Trade Balance (JUL) A -¥126.8b | C -¥194.5b | P ¥589.5b
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUL F) A 0.9% | C 0.9% | P 0.9%
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL) A -0.5% | C -0.4% | P 0.2%
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL F) A 1.0% | C 1.1% | P 1.3%
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