Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.612 | EURUSD 1.10844 | AUDUSD 0.67809 | NZDUSD 0.63973 | USDCAD 1.32925 | USDCHF 0.98253 | GBPUSD 1.21223 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD              1.10921 | 1.10816

USDJPY                106.653 | 106.403

GBPUSD              1.21350 | 1.21166

USDCHF               0.98301 | 0.98187

AUDUSD             0.67870 | 0.67596

USDCAD              1.33126 | 13284

NZDUSD              0.64076 | 0.63719

EURCHF               1.08960 | 108892

EURGBP              0.91465 | 0.91394

EURJPY                118.257 | 117.944

For Today

  • GBP: A very quiet session again through the Asian period with the market trading around the 1.2125-35 level throughout with very little in the way of direction to be had. Topside offers into the 1.2200 area with weak stops likely once the market clears the 1.2250 area to open the topside through to the 1.2350 area with limited sentimental offers in between, downside bids back through the 1.2080 areas and then continuing through to the 1.2040 levels with strong congestion likely with stronger bids on any push towards the 1.2020-00 area with those bids increasing on any dips, a break through the 12000 is likely to find willing buyers from the lows at the beginning of 2017 with buyers likely to remain.
  • JPY: The JPY continues to consolidate above the 106.00 level however, the day has been about the sellers with the market dropping back from the 106.60 level and steadily drifting from the high around the 106.66 area and falling steadily through to the 106.40 level to run to the grey hour holding just above, Downside bids likely to be weak through to last week’s 105.00 area with strong bids likely to continue through to the 104.80 area before strong stops are likely to appear for a push steadily through into the 103 handle and the ranges from the end of 2016. Topside offers light through to the 107.50 areas with possible sellers still remaining as Japanese continue to reset their investments away from contentious areas a push through the level will likely to see congestion appearing above the level and limited ability to move.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.6780 area the market tested weakly towards the 0.6790 area before AUDJPY cross sellers moved into the Tokyo session and the market steadily pushed through to the 0.6765 areas for the move into the London session, Downside bids likely through the 0.6720 level and then increasing as the market moves towards the 0.6680 area with possible strong stops through the  level opening a deeper move with limited congestion around the sentimental areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6820-30 areas before weak stops appear and limited congestion for a move to the 69 cents level and stronger offers.
  • EUR: A quiet session around the opening level with minor pushes above the 1.1090 level before returning to the 1.1085 areas, Downside congestion around the 1.1050 level with stronger bids on a push to the 1.1020-00 areas before limited bids appear through to the 109.80 and stronger stops appearing and minor support through the 1.09 handle. Topside offers through to the 1.1120 area before some weak stops appear and the market opens to the 1.1140-60 areas and stronger congestion and increasing offers on any push to the 1.1180 level.

 

 

Overnight News

KRW:

  1. Korea dismisses nuclear talks if US hostile military moves continue

USD:

Trump attacks, economic fears focus spotlight on Fed’s Powell speech

Trump slams Danish PM’s nasty rejection of Greenland deal

Fed will remain flexible, rates not on pre-set course

JPY/USD:

Japan says gaps remain with US on trade after very tough talks

EUR:

Macron says G7 should discuss budget stimulus

CAD/CNY:

Trudeau says Canada will push back in China row, urges de-escalation in Hong Kong

Canada accused of unlawfully questioning Huawei’s Meng

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (AUG P) A 51.6 | P 51.6

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Services (AUG P) A 49.2 | P 52.3

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Composite (AUG P) 49.5 | P 52.1

USD        Annual Federal Reserve Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole (Day 1)

JPY         Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (AUG P) A 49.4 | C 49.4 | P 49.4

JPY         All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUN) A -0.8% | C -0.8% | P 0.3% | R 0.5%

06:00     JPY         Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUL F) P -33.0%

06:30     CHF        Industrial Output w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q) P 4.3%

07:15     EUR        Markit France Manufacturing PMI (AUG P) C 49.5 | P 49.7

07:15     EUR        Markit France Services PMI (AUG P) C 52.5 | P 52.6

07:15     EUR        Markit France Composite PMI (AUG P) C 51.8 | P 51.9

07:30     EUR        Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (AUG P) C 43.0 | P 43.2

07:30     EUR        Markit Germany Services PMI (AUG P) C 54.0 | P 54.5

07:30     EUR        Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (AUG P) C 50.6 | P 50.9

08:00     EUR        Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (AUG P) C 46.2 | P 46.5

08:00     EUR        Markit Eurozone Services PMI (AUG P) C 53.0 | P 53.2

08:00     EUR        Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (AUG P) C 51.2 | P 51.5

11:00     MXN      Bi-Weekly CPI (YoY) (AUG 15) C 3.5% | P 3.7%

11:00     MXN      Bi-Weekly CPI (AUG 15) Medium C 0.1% | P 0.1%

11:00     MXN      Bi-Weekly Core CPI (AUG 15) C 0.2% | P 0.1%

11:30     EUR        ECB Publishes Account of Policy Meeting (JUL)

12:30     USD        Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 17) C 218k | P 220k

12:30     USD        Continuing Claims (AUG 10) P 1726k

13:45     USD        Markit US Manufacturing PMI (AUG P) C 50.5 | P 50.4

13:45     USD        Markit US Services PMI (AUG P) C 52.8 | P 53.0

13:45     USD        Markit US Composite PMI (AUG P) P 52.6

14:00     USD        Leading Index (JUL) C 0.2% | P -0.3%

14:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (AUG A) C -7 | P -6.6

22:45     NZD       Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (2Q) C 0.2% | P 0.7%

23:30     JPY         National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) C 0.5% | P 0.7%

23:30     JPY         National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) C 0.6% | P 0.6%

23:30     JPY         Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) C 0.5% | P 0.5%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A steady drift back through to the 1.2110-20 areas through the day, the market opened around the 1.2170 level slipping a little lower before running through to the 1.2175 area in early Tokyo before starting the drift through to the 1.2150 level for the move into the London session, London sold it through to the 1.2130 area before pushing back to the 1.2150 level on better borrowing numbers before again renewing its drift through to the 1.2115 level into the NYK session, the market then spent much of the session in the 1.2140 areas with a drop through to make the lows just       below 1.2115 before returning and then drifting lower to the close.
  • JPY: Opening on its lows just above the 106.20 area the market moved a little higher through into the Tokyo session before rallying quickly to the 106.40 areas and eventually testing through after a brief pause to push through the 106.50, the rest of the Tokyo session was held around the 50 level and only once the London came in did it make further move through to the 106.60 level, the market drifted back from that point retracing back to the 106.35 level deep into the NYK session before finding support into the FOMC minutes and testing through the 106.60 level and holding the level to the close.
  • AUD: Holding the lows around the 0.6775 areas the market eventually started a slow rise through the day, Asia quietly pushing through to the 0.6790 areas before dipping back again and testing back to the lows into early London, steady rise again to the same 0.6790 area for the move into the NYK session saw the highs set with the market not quiet able to push through the 0.68 cents ranging through to late in the session before dipping away on the FOMC commentary again bouncing off the previous lows to finish just in the positive.
  • EUR: Euro’s remained mired for the most part in the 1.1090-1.1105 areas with early trading moving the market towards those lows before a quick test above the 1.1100 area only to fail for the first time and a drift back through into the London session testing slightly through the 1.1090, London started to buy and again the market tested to the highs and held around the 1.1100 level through to the FOMC chatter, a quick stab lower bounced and then ran lower again from above the 1.1100 area this time bouncing off the 1.1080 areas and holding quietly to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JUL) A 0.14% | P -0.08%

NZD       Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JUL) A 5.0% | P 6.6%

GBP        Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JUL) A -13.5b | P 15.2b

GBP        Central Government NCR (JUL) A -8.1b | P 13.5b

GBP        Public Sector Net Borrowing (JUL) A -2.0b | C -3.6b | P 5.7b

GBP        PSNB ex Banking Groups (JUL) A -1.3b | C -2.7b | P 7.2b

USD        MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 16) A -0.9% | P 21.7%

CAD       Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (MoM) (JUL) A 0.5% | C 0.2% | P -0.2%

CAD       Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) A 2.0% | C 1.7% | P 2.0%

USD        Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUL) A 2.5%V | C 2.5% | P -1.7%

USD        DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 16) A -2732k | C -1329k | P 1580k

USD        FOMC Meeting Minutes (JUL 31)

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.