Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.511 | EURUSD 1.10566 | AUDUSD 0.67286 | NZDUSD 0.63086 | USDCAD 1.3289 | USDCHF 0.98658 | GBPUSD 1.21816 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10598 | 1.10423

USDJPY                106.546 | 106384

GBPUSD              1.21860 | 1.2175

USDCHF               0.98805 | 0.98599

AUDUSD             0.67360 | 0.67063

USDCAD              1.33027 | 1.3278

NZDUSD              0.63179 | 0.62897

EURCHF               1.09114 | 1.09043

EURGBP              0.90789 | 0.90659

EURJPY                117.816 | 117.517

For Today

  • GBP: Dare I say another quiet Asian session with the market slowly rising to above the 1.2185 area from the opening 1.2180 into the Tokyo session then drifting through to the grey hour slowly testing the 1.2175 areas, Downside congestion through to the 1.2100 is likely to slow any move lower, a push through the 1.2100 level is likely to see weak stops but again congestion through the 1.2060 levels through to the 1.2020 level and stronger bids, topside offers light through the 1.2200 level with weak congestion a possibility through to the stronger 1.2300 area where the market stalled earlier this week and likely to hold strong stops beyond if the market could push through.
  • JPY: A quiet range through the session with the market in USDJPY holding the 106.50 level for the most part before drifting a little in Tokyo to test lightly below the 106.40 area and just as quickly pushing back to 106.50 for the move into London, Downside bids starting to light through the 106.00 level but some congestion through to the 105.80 areas before firming up around the 105.00 areas and increasing on any move to the 104.50 level with stops likely to not appear until through the 104.00 level and the likelihood of buyers willing to buy into any dips, whether or not the BoJ has interest or not and politically not the right idea for the time being, Topside offers through the 106.80 area likely to be reasonably strong with possible weak stops through the 107.00 area opening a challenge to the 107.50 level before stronger congestion appears with limited potential to squeeze to the 108.00 level.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.6730 area the market struggled for direction through into Tokyo before rising to the 0.6736 area for the high of the day before dropping on the rather weak but dull numbers and testing to the 0.6710 level, the market then held for a few hours before rising a little into the mid-teens for the move into London, Downside bids into the 67 cents level and likely to extend through to the 0.6680 area before weak and breakout stops are likely to appear and varying degrees of support through to the 66 cents level but overall weak congestion. Topside offers light through to the 0.6740 area with weak congestion beginning and increasing on a push through the 0.6760 level and stronger offers still on a move to the 68 cents areas.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1060 level the market moved quietly into the Tokyo session before starting a steady drift lower to test too the lows of the previous 24hrs around the 1.1042 level before lightly holding the area through into the grey hour, Downside bids continue through the lows more congestive building into strong bids the closer to the 1.1020 level you get and possibly like that through to the 1.1000 areas possible option interest in the area, with possible weak stops on a move through the 1.0980 level and possibly opening a deeper move through to the 1.0920 level before strong bids are likely to appear, topside offers light through to the 1.1100 level with limited stops on a test through the 1.1120 level and then increasing offers on any push into the 1.1140-60 levels before a slight weakening though to stronger offers in the 1.1180 level and onwards.

 

Overnight News

HKD/CNY:

Challenge to Hong Kong’s one Country, two systems not allowed – Xinhua – BBG

Key Hong Kong protest organizer attacked by armed masked men – BBG

Is Hong Kong on the brink of declaring emergency rule to deal with anti-government protesters – SCMP

MXN:

Mexico’s Central Bank says AMLO policies creating uncertainty – BBG

EUR:

ECB’s Knot says economy doesn’t yet warrant resumption of QE – BBG

GBP:

House speaker Bercow colluding with Tory rebels from his sunbed in Turkey to frustrate Johnson’s Brexit plans – TEL

CNY:

China’s slowdown deepens in August, early indicators show – BBG

NZD:

NZ Ministry projects annual jobs growth will average 1.4% – BBG

NZ home building approvals fall for a second month – BBG

NZ consumer confidence improved in August – ANZ

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

22:45     NZD       Building Permits (MoM) (JUL) A -3.1% | P -3.9%

GBP        GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG) A -14 | C -11 | P -11

JPY         Jobless Rate (JUL) A 2.2% | C 2.3% | P 2.3%

JPY         Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL) A -2.0% | C -0.6% | P 0.5%

JPY         Large Retailers’ Sales (JUL) A -4.8% | C -4.5% | P -0.5%

JPY         Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P) A 0.7% | C -0.5% | P -3.8%

AUD       Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL) A -28.5% | C -22.2% | P -25.6% | R 25.0%

AUD       Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL) A 3.1% | C 3.2% | P 3.3%

JPY         Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL) A -4.1% | C -5.4% | P 0.3%

JPY         Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL) A 56.9% | P -4.2%

06:00     GBP        Nationwide House Px n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG) C 0.7% | P 0.3%

06:00     EUR        German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) C 3.3% | P -1.6%

07:00     CHF        KOF Leading Indicator (AUG) C 95.2 | P 97.1

08:30     GBP        Consumer Credit (YoY) (JUL) P 5.5%

08:30     GBP        Net Consumer Credit (JUL) C 1.0b | P 1.0b

08:30     GBP        Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL) C 3.7b | P 3.7b

08:30     GBP        Mortgage Approvals (JUL) C 66.1k | P 66.4k

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL) C 7.5% | P 7.5%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (AUG A) C 1.0% | P 0.9%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (AUG) C 1.0% | P 1.1%

10:00     EUR        Italian Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q F) C 0.0% | P 0.0%

12:30     CAD       Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q) C 3.0% | P 0.4%

12:30     USD        Personal Income (JUL) C 0.3% | P 0.4%

12:30     CAD       Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (JUN) C 0.1% | P 0.2%

12:30     CAD       Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (JUN) C 1.4% | P 1.4%

12:30     USD        Personal Spending (JUL) C 0.5% | P 0.3%

12:30     USD        Real Personal Spending (JUL) C 0.3% | P 0.2%

12:30     USD        PCE Core (MoM) (JUL) C 0.2% | P 0.2%

12:30     USD        PCE Core (YoY) (JUL) C 1.6% | P 1.6%

13:45     USD        Chicago Purchasing Manager (AUG) C 47.9 | P 44.4

14:00     USD        U. of Mich. Sentiment (AUG F) C 92.3 | P 92.1

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A limited rise from the opening to push weakly above the 1.2220 level before moving into the Tokyo session drifting through to test the figure level into mid-session and recovering weakly for the move into the London session above the 1.2215 areas, London saw some choppy movement through to NYK ranging between the 1.2180-1.2205 level before starting a strong rise through to the 1.2230 level, a steady set of US numbers saw the market quickly return to sub 1.2190 and the market drifting steadily through the session to push to the 1.2175 areas and closing just off those lows.
  • JPY: The Asian session saw very little movement with the market initially rising through to the 106.10 area before slipping back to the 106.00 level and slowly pushing through to base along the 105.85 areas through into the London session, London saw some strong buying through to the 106.15 levels rejecting the move on the first attempt then grinding through over the course of a couple hours taking the market to the 106.35 level levelling off and trading quietly around the 106.25 areas and holding until NYK continued the steady rise pushing through to just below the 106.70 areas before drifting back to the 106.50 for the close.
  • AUD: A slow rise through into early morning in Tokyo saw the market pushing towards the 0.6745 area before dropping back quickly to test the 0.6725 area as AUDJPY selling dominated the Oz, the market then traded through into the London session losing steady ground to post the lows for the day just through the 0.6720 areas before London took over and pushed the market through to the 0.6750 area in a steady move and close to the highs which followed into the NYK session, the rest of the session was a slow drift through to the closing levels in quiet trading.
  • EUR: A steady decline through the day for the most part with the Asian session initially rising through to the 1.1090 area before dropping back to the opening 1.1080 level for the move into the London session, London took the market through the 1.1080 level before ranging tightly around the level for several hours before slowly drifting through to the NYK session testing the 1.1070 area and the US numbers, with a little drop to test lightly through the 1.1060 level before breaking higher into the NYK option cut testing just above the 1.1090 level to make the highs before dropping just as quickly through to hold just below the 1.1060 level for a short period then triggering weak stops on a dip to the 1.1040 level and the lows before bouncing and running to the close pushing slowly towards the 1.1060 area.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL) A 2.40% | P 2.73%

NZD       ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG) A -0.5 | P 5

AUD       Private Capital Expenditure (2Q) A -0.5% | C 0.4% | P -1.7%

EUR        French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F) A 1.4% | C 1.3% | P 1.3%

EUR        German Unemployment Change (000’s) (AUG) A 4.0k | C 3.5k | P 1.0k

EUR        German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (AUG) A 5.0% | C 5.0% | P 5.0%

EUR        German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG P) A -0.2% | C -0.1% | P 0.5%

EUR        German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG P) A 1.4% | C 1.5% | P 1.7%

USD        Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (2Q S) A 2.0% | C 2.0% | P 2.1%

USD        Personal Consumption (2Q S) A 4.7% | C 4.3% | P 4.3%

USD        Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q S) A 2.4% | C 2.4% | P 2.4%

USD        Core PCE (QoQ) (2Q S) A 1.7% | C 1.8% | P 1.8%

USD        Advance Goods Trade Balance (JUL) A -$72.3b | C -$74.6b | P -$74.2b

USD        Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (JUL P) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.0%

USD        Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 24) A 215k | C 215k | P 209k  | R 211k

USD        Continuing Claims (AUG 17) A 1698k | P 1674k

USD        Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUL) A 1.7% | C 1.8% | P -0.6%

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Exchange has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Exchange will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Exchange does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Exchange or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange will clearly identify and mark any content it publishes or that is approved by LMAX Exchange.

FX and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses exceeding your deposit. They are not suitable for everyone so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. The information on this website is not directed at residents of the United States of America, Australia (we will only deal with Australian clients who are "wholesale clients" as defined under the Corporations Act 2001), Canada (although we may deal with Canadian residents who meet the "Permitted Client" criteria), Singapore or any other jurisdiction where FX trading and/or CFD trading is restricted or prohibited by local laws or regulations.