Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.83 | EURUSD 1.10106 | AUDUSD 0.68632 | NZDUSD 0.64113 | USDCAD 1.31939 | USDCHF 0.99283 | GBPUSD 1.23295 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10153 | 1.10077

USDJPY                108.165 | 107.779

GBPUSD              1.23397 | 1.23178

USDCHF               0.99411 | 0.99285

AUDUSD             0.68870 | 0.68608

USDCAD              1.31994 | 1.3179

NZDUSD              0.64443 | 0.64128

EURCHF               1.09445 | 1.09313

EURGBP              0.89350 | 0.89251

EURJPY                119.120 | 118.693

 

For Today

  • GBP: A slow range with some better volumes going through however, after a wide start making the high the market held around the 1.2330 level through to the grey hour, Topside congestion through the current levels with possible weak stops around the 1.2370 area and limited offers into the 1.2400 area and light congestion likely through the sentimental areas for any move to the stronger 1.2500 level. Downside congestion light through to the 1.2200 level and a little stronger on any test through before stronger bids start to appear on any attempt at the 1.2150 level notwithstanding Brexit news. A test through the level is likely to see varying degrees of strength with no real stops until below the 1.2100 area.
  • JPY: Moving through from the opening holding the 107.80 area the market moved quickly higher from the release of machine orders testing through the 108.00 level gradually grinding through the offers and spiking late in the session to the 108.15 areas before holding quietly through the grey hour. Topside offers remain into the 108.20 areas before the possibility of weak stops however, congestion is likely to remain through to the 108.80 level and then stronger offers continue from there. downside bids light through the 108.00 level with congestion likely in the 107.60-40 areas and bids likely to increase through the 107.20-106.80 areas.
  • AUD: Helped by movement in the USDJPY, the AUD rose with cross JPY buying once the market moved into the Tokyo session, the market initially pushed to just above the 0.6880 levels before drifting back a little and then from midsession the market renewed its push higher testing through to just above the 0.6886 areas before drifting a touch through to the London session, downside bids likely to forming around the 0.6800 areas and increasing through to the 0.6780 level, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops appearing and the market open to a move back through to the stronger 0.6720 levels., Topside offers into the 0.6880 level likely to be strong and continuing through the 69 cents level before weak stops appear on any test through the 0.6920 areas with light congestion then continuing through the level into 0.6960 areas before increasing.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1010 areas the market remained in that area through to the London session with very little movement in the currency, Topside offers congested through the 1.1050 level and then increasing in size as the market moves towards the 1.1080 level and through the figure, weak stops possible above the 1.1120 areas but further congestion is likely to reappear, downside bids light through to the 1.0980 areas with weak stops likely through the level and the market then opening to the 1.0920 areas with stronger bids building in that area.

 

Overnight News

USD:

Trump says US has agreed to move increased tariffs on 250B worth of goods from Oct 1 to Oct 15 -CNBC

Boeing warns US-China spat raises new risk for 787 Dreamline BBG

Fed loath to follow ECB on negative rates despite Trump’s demand – BBG

CNY:

China react: Nice gesture, but a delay in tariff hike not enough BBG

Cnina is considering US farm imports as goodwill before talks – BBG

USD/JPY:

US-Japan Corn deal has just one flaw: Japan doesn’t need the corn DJ

GBP:

UK government outlines worst case scenario for no deal Brexit DJ

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

GBP        RICS House Price Balance (AUG) A -4% | C -10% | P -9%

JPY         Machine Orders (YoY) (JUL) A 0.3% | C -4.3% | P 12.5%

AUD       Consumer Inflation Expectation (SEP) A 3.1% | P 3.5%

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUL) A 0.1% | C -0.3% | P -0.1%

06:00     EUR        German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG F) C 1.4% | P 1.4%

09:00     EUR        Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL) C -1.3% | P -2.6%

11:45     EUR        European Central Bank Rate Decision (SEP 12) C 0.00% | P 0.00%

11:45     EUR        ECB Marginal Lending Facility (SEP 12) C 0.25% | P 0.25%

11:45     EUR        ECB Deposit Facility Rate (SEP 12) C -0.50% | P -0.40%

12:30     USD        Real Avg Weekly Earnings (YoY) (AUG) P 0.8%

12:30     EUR        ECB’s Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt After Policy Decision

12:30     CAD       New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JUL) C -0.2% | P -0.2%

12:30     USD        Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG) C 0.1% | P 0.3%

12:30     USD        Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (AUG) C 0.2% | P 0.3%

12:30     USD        Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) C 1.8% | P 1.8%

12:30     USD        Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (YoY) (AUG) C 2.3% | P 2.2%

12:30     USD        Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 7) C 215k | P 217k

12:30     USD        Real Avg Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG) P 1.3%

12:30     USD        Continuing Claims (AUG 31) C 1675k | P 1662k

18:00     USD        Monthly Budget Statement (AUG) P -$119.7b

22:30     NZD       BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (AUG) P 48.2

 

Harry Hindsight

 

    • GBP: Opening around the 1.2355 level the market remained fairly quiet through into the Tokyo session before dipping through to the 1.2340 slowly and holding for a short period before starting a slow rally through to the 1.2370 level and struggling with the level deep into the London session testing the level repeatedly, the move through to NYK saw the market slipping lower steadily through to the 1.2320 areas and holding through to the London close before dipping through the level to make the low around the 1.2314 level before slowly recovering to trade around the 1.2330 to the close.

 

  • JPY: Opening around the 107.55 level the market moved slowly through into the Tokyo session unchanged before starting a slow rise through to the Grey hour to test lightly above the 107.80 areas, London opened with a brief round of selling and the market dipped through the 107.70 before bouncing around a little in that 10 pip range through too late in the session and again pushing just above the 107.80 level for the close.
  • AUD: Steady move through into the Tokyo session with the market dipping from the weak consumer confidence number quickly moving through to make the low of the day around the 0.6850 areas before slowly rising back to the opening level before breaking through and quickly moving through to the 0.6885 areas on a spike and then dipping back to the 0.6875 areas for the move into the London session, and a slow drift through to hold around the 0.6865 area into the NYK session before drifting off the top of the range around the 0.6870 levels to test through to just above the 0.6855 and a slow move through to the close.

 

  • EUR: Rising a little from the opening just above the 1.1040 level the market pushed into the Tokyo session testing the 1.1050 level making the high just beyond the level before settling into a narrow range around the level for the move into the London session, London were steady sellers through to deep into the NYK       session pushing through the 1.1000 level on the move into the new session bouncing a little from just below the 1.0990 areas for a move to the 1.1010 and a long run to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence (SEP) A -1.7% | P 3.6%

CNY        Aggregate Financing CNY (AUG) A 1980.0b | C 1604.5b | P 1011.2b

CNY        New Yuan Loans CNY (AUG) A 1210.0b | C 1200.0b | P 1060.0b

USD        MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 6) A 2.0% | P -3.1%

MXN      Industrial Production NSA (YoY) (JUL) A -1.7% | P -2.9%

USD        DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 6) A -69129 | C -2529k | P -4771k

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.