Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.946| EURUSD 1.09414| AUDUSD 0.67645 | NZDUSD 0.62957 | USDCAD 1.32402 | USDCHF 0.9910 | GBPUSD 1.22891 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09460 | 1.0930
USDJPY 108.018 | 107.861
GBPUSD 1.23017 | 1.22841
USDCHF 0.99166 | 0.99044
AUDUSD 0.67690 | 0.67543
USDCAD 1.32465 | 1.3235
NZDUSD 0.62944 | 0.62582
EURCHF 1.08471 | 1.0839
EURGBP 0.89047 | 0.88962
EURJPY 118.175 | 117.953

For Today
• GBP: Opening unchanged and after some wide trading from the opening the market tested just above the 1.2300 areas before holding quietly just above the 1.2290 area and then drifting a little through to the grey hour testing the 1.2285 areas in quiet trading, Downside congestion remains through 1.2280 level before some weak stops competing with further congestion on a break through the level and bids likely to increase on any move towards the 1.2200-50 areas. Topside offers likely to be weak through to the 1.2400 level with limited congestion on any move through the level building steadily stronger the further through the 1.24 handle the market moves with strong offers particularly around the 1.2500 level.
• JPY: A quite range through to the grey hours with the market remaining in mid-range and more or less unchanged, trading in early trading to the 108.00 level and a couple of attempts through the session just above the figure however, each rally saw a moving through the 107.90 with limited losses before recovering, Topside offers the 108 handle and stronger offers likely to be strong through to the 108.50 areas. Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with strong bids in the area and weak stops likely to be through the 106.80 areas with stronger bids through the 106.60 level and congestion continuing through to the 106.00 level.
• AUD: Opening in line with Fridays close before steadily slipping lower pushing from the opening around the 0.6765 level and testing to the 0.6755 level before spiking through to the 0.6770 level for the high of the session and then settling back again. Topside offers light through to the 0.6780 level with some offers then holding through to the 68 cents level again and stronger offers through to the 0.6820 level with possible weak stops just above the level opening only a small space before running into likely congestive offers. Downside bids light through to the 0.6740 level and stronger bids in the area with bids likely to increase on any test to the 0.6720-00 level with weak stops limited through the 0.6680 level possibly covered by stronger congestion through to the 0.6650 areas.
• EUR: A slight rise from an unchanged opening to push lightly above the 1.0945 level before moving through into the Tokyo session adrift and testing through to the 1.0930 level to base there through to the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be weak on any move through to the 1.1000 areas with congestion around the 1.1020 level and weak stops just beyond the level and opening the market through to the 1.1040-60 areas where congestion is likely, stronger offers then appear on any push through the 1.1080-1.1100 levels. Downside bids through the yesterday’s lows and then increasing as the market moves towards the 1.0920-00 areas, with stops likely on any dip through the 1.0880 areas and opening a longer-term downside move.

Overnight News
GBP:
MPC Hawk turns dovish, hinting at a rate cut, as economic sentiment collapses
Boris Johnson won’t resign if exit day is delayed -BBG
CNY:
A dangerous decade ahead as China’s rise falters – AFR
Recession risk fuels talk of tweak in USD peg – SMP
NZD:
NZ business confidence falls to fresh 11 year low – BBG
AUD:
RBA to slash cash rate to 0.5%, fiscal calls mount -AFR
EUR:
Its gloomy: EU unlikely to change position, says minister, GUA
USD/CNY:
Treasury says no US plan to block China listings for now – BBG

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD: Building permits MoM (AUG) C 0.8% | P -1.3%
JPY: Industrial production YoY (AUG P) A -4.7% | C -3.9% | P 0.7%
JPY Large retailers’ sales (AUG) A 0.4% | C 0.8% | P -4.8%
JPY Retail trade YoY (AUG) A 2.0% | C 0.7% | P -2.0%
NZD ANZ Activity outlook (SEP) A -1.8% | P -0.5%
CNY Manufacturing PMI (SEP) A 49.8 | C 49.6 | P 49.5
CNY Composite PMI (SEP) A 53.1 | P 53
CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (SEP) A 53.7 | C 53.9 | P 53.8
AUD Private sector credit YoY (AUG) A 2.9% | C 3.0% | P 3.1%
CNY Caixin China PMI manufacturing (SEP) A 51.4 | C 50.2 | P 50.4
0600 JPY Construction Orders YoY (AUG) P 26.9%
0600 JPY Housing Starts YoY (AUG) C -6.1% | P -4.1%
0700 EUR German retail sales YoY C 2.9% | P 4.4%
0800 CHF KOF leading indicator C 96.2 | P 97
0855 EUR German unemployment change (000’s) (SEP) C 5.0k | P 4.0k
0855 EUR German unemployment Claims rate s.a. (SEP) C 5.0% | P 5.0%
0930 GBP Consumer credit YoY (AUG) P 5.5%
0930 GBP GDP YoY (2Q F) C 1.2% | P 1.2%
0930 GBP Mortgage approvals (AUG) C 66.5k | 67.3k
0930 GBP Net Consumer Credit (AUG) C 0.9b | P 0.9b
0930 GBP Net Lending Sec. on dwellings (AUG) C 4.2b | P 4.6b
1000 EUR Eurozone unemployment rate (AUG) C 7.5% | P 7.5%
1000 EUR German CPI YoY (SEP P) C 1.3% | P 1.4%
1000 EUR German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (SEP P) C 1.0% | P 1.0%
1000 EUR German CPI MoM (SEP P) 0.0% | P -0.2%
1000 EUR German CPI EU Harmonized MoM (SEP P) C 0.0% | P -0.1%
1445 USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (SEP) C 50.0 | P 50.4
2200 NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey
2330 AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing index (SEP) P 53.1

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A quiet opening and steady move into Tokyo before dipping early in the session through to test into the 1.2315 level before bouncing back and a slow push through the 1.2330 level peaking just above the 1.2335 areas before moving into the London session and quick selling saw the market down through the figure and grinding through the downside congestion to the 1.2270 level before slowly pushing back to above the 1.2290 areas holding for a short period dipping and then finding the strength to push through into NYK testing through the opening levels and holding through the early part of the NYK session, the move towards the end of London saw the market dropping back to the figure level and holding through to late in the session and a dip back to the 1.2290 level and holding quietly to the close.
• JPY: A steady range through into Tokyo just above the 107.80 level saw a limited dip to push lightly through the 107.70 areas and holding around the level through to the grey hour before starting a slow rise through the session to push above the 108.15 areas and holding deep through the NYK session around the 108.10 level before dipping late in the session through to the 107.80 areas again and while it did bounce off the level it struggled through to the close just holding onto the 107.90 areas.
• AUD: Rising steadily from the opening around the 0.6750 areas to push through into the grey hour holding around the 0.6760 level, a dip into the London session before rising steadily again for the move through the NYK session testing towards 0.6780 before dropping quickly back to the 0.6760 area and then running in a narrow rising range to the close.
• EUR: Opening around the 1.0920 level the market ranged narrowly around the level through to the grey hour and a test through to below the 1.0910 area for the second time and once into the London session pushed steadily higher in steps to eventually test towards the 1.0960 level before settling on a tight range around the 1.0940 levels to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (SEP) A -12 | C -14 | P -14
USD Durable Goods orders (AUG P) A 0.2% | C -1.2% | P 2.0%
USD PCE Core YoY (AUG) A 1.8% | C 1.8% | P 1.6%
USD Durables Ex Transportation (AUG P) A 0.5% | C 0.3% | P -0.4%
USD PCE Core MoM (AUG) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
USD Personal Income (AUG) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.1%
USD Personal Spending (AUG) A 0.1% | C 0.3% | P 0.6%
USD Real Personal Spending (AUG) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.4%
USD U. of Mich Sentiment (SEP F) A 93.2 | C 92.1 | P 92.0
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (SEP 27) A 860 | P 868

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