Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.623 | EURUSD 1.11045 | AUDUSD 0.68183 | NZDUSD 0.63786 | USDCAD 1.30715 | USDCHF 0.99224 | GBPUSD 1.2852 |

LMAX highs and Lows 05.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.11073 | 1.1101
USDJPY 108.705 | 108.593
GBPUSD 1.28576 | 1.28361
USDCHF 0.99305 | 0.99173
AUDUSD 0.68206 | 0.68097
USDCAD 1.30763 | 1.30701
NZDUSD 0.63830 | 0.6367
EURCHF 1.10249 | 1.10172
EURGBP 0.86498 | 0.86418
EURJPY 120.682 | 120.583
For Today
• GBP: Another quiet day through Asia with the Cable opening around the 1.2850 level and trading in a very narrow range through to the grey hours holding around the 1.2840 level with minor dips through the topside and testing to the 1.2835 level, Topside offers light through the 1.2950 area however the closer you get to the 1.3000 area the stronger the offers begin to get, with stop losses likely on a push through the 1.3020 levels could see option related stops and the market quickly moving through to challenge the 1.3050 sentimental level and very little to slow a push higher especially on the back of any hopeful news, downside bids likely to be limited through the 1.2800 levels and with maybe weak stops on a dip through the 1.2750 areas the market could possibly see quick dips through to the light congestion around the sentimental levels to 1.2600 where possibly stiffer bids start to appear.
• JPY: Quiet opening with the market running into the Tokyo session basing on the opening 108.60 level with minor breach’s before fixing demand pushed the market through to the 108.70 level to set the high and the range for the session slipping slowly back to the 108.65 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers into the 109.00 level with limited resistance to a slight move through the level with increased offers likely to appear in the 109.20-40 areas before weak stops appear and opens the market to increasing congestion on any push through the 109.50 levels and increasing further on any push to the 110.00 level. Downside bids light back through the 108.00 areas with weak stops likely on a dip through the 107.80 area and congestion likely through the 107.50 level and continuing into growing bids in the 107.00 areas.
• AUD: As with the last two pairs a very slow day with the market contained for the most part in the 0.6810-20 area with minor pushes through each level before moving back to the opening area for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids light through the 68 cents level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6780 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, topside faces stronger selling again above the 0.6880 level and a bit away from the current levels if ranges have anything to say on the matter, a push through the 69 cents level doesn’t really do much until pushing past the 0.6920 area and congestion quickly following in to limit any gains.
• EUR: If you thought the previous three were quiet well the range in Euros was even tighter opening just above the 1.1105 level and testing nearly to 1.1100 and holding all the way through to the grey hour, Topside offers increasing on a push through to the 1.1170 area and into the 1.1200 area with congestion likely through the level to cancel out any weak stops and opening up a further steady climb into the 1.1240 areas, Downside bids light through to the 1.1080 level where weak stops are likely to appear however, once cleared 1.1060 level sees minor congestion through to 1.1040 before the market starts to become more supportive on any dips towards the 1.1000 levels.

Overnight News
USD/CNY:
US farm sales china could hit pre-trade war levels in 2020 – SCMP
Pence: China continues to aid, abet theft of US intellectual property
Pence: US is not seeking to contain China’s development
Pence: China’s actions in Hong Kong curtail liberty and rights
US-China trade war hurting Chinese exporters – SCMP
RUB:
Russia offers arms technology to Philippines no conditions – SCMP
GBP:
Johnson seeks General election on Dec 12
Corbyn will back election when no deal Brexit is ruled out
USD:
Trump: FED is derelict in its duties if it doesn’t lower the rate and even, ideally stimulate
Trump: Take a look around the world at our competitors
Trump: Germany and others are actually getting paid to borrow money
Trump: Fed was way too fast to raise, and way too slow to cut
EUR/GBP:
EU to decide on Brexit delay on Friday – or not – Officials
JPY:
BoJ warns economy vulnerable to riskier lending practices of financial firm
Japan’s Trade Minister resigns over donation scandal
SBD/CNY:
Solomon’s Government says China’s island lease unlawful

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
EUR France Sovereign debt to be rated by Moody’s
EUR Italy Sovereign debt to be rated by S&P
GBP UK Sovereign debt to be rated by S&P
0700 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV) C 9.8 | P 9.9
0900 EUR ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
0900 EUR German IFO Business Climate (OCT) C 94.5 | P 94.6
0900 EUR German IFO Current Assessment (OCT) C 98.0 | P 98.5
0900 EUR German IFO Expectations (OCT) C 91 | P 90.8
1500 USD U. of Mich Sentiment (OCT F) C 96.0 | P 96.0
1800 USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (OCT25) P 851

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Asian trading was quiet with the market ranging around the 1.2915 levels for the most part through into London having opened in that area, the move into London saw the high for the day with the market pushing quickly through to the 1.2950 level and then dropping back almost as quickly and continuing on a move through the 1.2900 level to test weekly through the 1.2880 level before holding quietly through to NYK, limited attempt to push higher managing to regain the opening levels and then steadily falling back through to the London close testing through the 1.2800 level before bouncing and moving back to the 1.2850 area and ranging around the level to the close which obviously is beginning to slop around and the week can’t end quick enough.
• JPY: A slow drift through the Asian session with the market slowly slipping from the lower opening 108.65 area and slipping to the 108.60 level to trade around the level into the early part of London, London opening saw a quick rally with the market testing to the highs just above the 108.75 area before dipping back to range in the 108.65-70 area till the NYK opening before slipping quickly through to test the 108.50 level holding for a few hours before pushing back to the opening level and then generally holding in the 108.60-65 area to the close almost unchanged.
• AUD: A slow steady decline throughout the day, opening above the 0.6850 level and then pushing off the early lows in Tokyo to make the high of the day just above the 0.6855 level before returning to the steady slide through to the London opening with selling increasing through to the 0.6825 level, some minor buying ran the market a little higher through to the NYK session where the sellers again appeared and the market steadily pushed through the lows and continued steadily through to just above the 0.6810 level recovering for a long run to the close.
• EUR: Very limited through to the NYK session with the Asian session seeing a steady rise from the opening just above the 1.1130 level and making a high during the period just above the 1.1140 level, the move into the London session held the 1.1130 level and moved quickly through to make the high just beyond the 1.1160 level before just as quickly dipping back to the 1.1130 area for the long run to the NYK session, a similar early round of buying in NYK saw the market back above the 1.1150 level however, the corresponding dip was deeper and a little more sharper eventually dipping back to the 1.1095 level before a limited recovery and ranging too the lose just above the 1.1100 level.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD CBA PMI Composite A 50.7 | P 52.0
AUD CBA PMI Manufacturing (OCT P) A 50.1 | P 50.3
AUD CBA PMI Services A 50.8 | P 52.4
JPY Nikkei PMI Manufacturing (OCT P) A 48.5 | P 48.9
EUR Markit German Services PMI (OCT P) A 51.2 | C 52 | P 51.4
EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (OCT P) A 48.6 | C 48.9 | P 43.5
EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (OCT P) A 41.9 | C 42 | P 41.7
EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (OCT P) A 50.2 | C 50.4 | P 50.1
EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (OCT P) A 45.7 | C 46 | P 45.7
EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (OCT P) A 51.8 | C 51.9 | P 51.6
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (SEP) A | C 42200 | P 42576
MXN Bi-Weekly CPI (OCT 15) A 0.40% | C 0.46% | P 0.13%
MXN Bi-Weekly CPI YoY (OCT 15) A 3.01% | C 3.06% | P 3.01%
MXN Bi-Weekly Core CPI (OCT 15) A 0.13% | C 0.16% | P 0.12%
MXN Economic Activity IGAE YoY (AUG) A -0.9% | C 0.5% | P 0.33%
EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (OCT 24) A -0.50% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
EUR ECB Marginal Lending facility A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
EUR ECB European Central Bank Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
EUR ECB’s Draghi speaks in Frankfurt after Policy Decision
USD Durable goods orders (SEP P) A -1.1% | C -0.7% | P 0.2% | R 0.3%
USD Continuing Claims (OCT 12) A 1682k | C 1675k | P 1679k | R 1683k
USD Durables Ex Transportation (SEP P) A -0.3% | C -0.2% | P 0.5% | R 0.3%
USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 19) A 212k | C 215k | P 214k | R 218k
USD Markit US Composite PMI (OCT P) A 51.2 | P 51
USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (OCT P) A 51.5 | C 50.7 | P 51.1
USD Markit US Services PMI (OCT P) A 51 | C 51 | P 50.9
USD New Homes Sales MoM (SEP) A -0.7% | C -1.4% | P 7.1% | R 6.2%

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Exchange has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Exchange will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Exchange does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Exchange or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange will clearly identify and mark any content it publishes or that is approved by LMAX Exchange.

FX and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses exceeding your deposit. They are not suitable for everyone so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. The information on this website is not directed at residents of the United States of America, Australia (we will only deal with Australian clients who are "wholesale clients" as defined under the Corporations Act 2001), Canada (although we may deal with Canadian residents who meet the "Permitted Client" criteria), Singapore or any other jurisdiction where FX trading and/or CFD trading is restricted or prohibited by local laws or regulations.