Daily FX Market Operations

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.885 | EURUSD 1.11114 | AUDUSD 0.6865 | NZDUSD 0.63498 | USDCAD 1.30874 | USDCHF 0.99406 | GBPUSD 1.28698 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.11142 | 1.11066
USDJPY 108.889 | 108.814
GBPUSD 1.28702 | 1.28585
USDCHF 0.99448 | 0.99373
AUDUSD 0.68717 | 0.6849
USDCAD 1.30927 | 1.30851
NZDUSD 0.63677 | 0.63449
EURCHF 1.10493 | 1.10415
EURGBP 0.86401 | 0.8634
EURJPY 121.026 | 120.884
For Today
• GBP: Another quiet session through Tokyo with the Cable holding around the opening levels with a light test below the 1.2860 level but generally holding the 1.2860-70 areas through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 1.2950 area however, the closer you get to the 1.3000 area the stronger the offers begin to get, with stop losses likely on a push through the 1.3020 levels could see option related stops and the market quickly moving through to challenge the 1.3050 sentimental level and very little to slow a push higher especially on the back of any hopeful news, downside bids likely to be limited through the 1.2800 levels and with maybe weak stops on a dip through the 1.2750 areas the market could possibly see quick dips through to the light congestion around the sentimental levels to 1.2600 where possibly stiffer bids start to appear.
• JPY: Opening around the 108.87 areas the market moved through to the Tokyo fix testing a little lower but unable to challenge either the 108.80 level on the downside before returning to hold around the 108.85 area through to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 109.00 level with limited resistance to a slight move through the level with increased offers likely to appear in the 109.20-40 areas before weak stops appear and opens the market to increasing congestion on any push through the 109.50 levels and increasing further on any push to the 110.00 level. Downside bids light back through the 108.00 areas with weak stops likely on a dip through the 107.80 area and congestion likely through the 107.50 level and continuing into growing bids in the 107.00 areas.
• AUD: The Oz drifted off from the opening levels into the Tokyo session but generally in a quiet range the Tokyo fix saw the Oz test to the 0.6850 area before snapping back a little as RBA’s Lowe made comments on a balancing act required, the market took comfort from the comment and quickly pushed from the lows through to the 0.6870 areas before dropping back again and then trading in a tight range through to the grey hour just short of the opening level. Downside bids light through the 68 cents level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6780 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, topside faces stronger selling again above the 0.6880 level and a bit away from the current levels if ranges have anything to say on the matter, a push through the 69 cents level doesn’t really do much until pushing past the 0.6920 area and congestion quickly following in to limit any gains.
• EUR: Opening just above the 1.1110 level the market continued to hold just above the level through into the Tokyo session before dipping away to hold just below the 1.1110 areas all the way through to the grey hour, Topside offers increasing on a push through to the 1.1170 area and into the 1.1200 area with congestion likely through the level to cancel out any weak stops and opening up a further steady climb into the 1.1240 areas, Downside bids light through to the 1.1080 level where weak stops are likely to appear however, once cleared 1.1060 level sees minor congestion through to 1.1040 before the market starts to become more supportive on any dips towards the 1.1000 levels.

Overnight News
AUD:
Soft Aussie inflation keeps door open to rate cut – DJ
RBA governor says policy balancing act needed – DJ
CNY/AUD:
China extends Aussie coal bans – AFR
GBP:
UK’s new Brexit deal worse than continued uncertainty – NIESR – HAA
UK political risks get even more complex – DJ
UK Parliament approves early General election on Dec 12
CNY:
Pig disease mans China will struggle to meet US import target – BBG
CNY/USD:
China warns US criticism at UN over Xinjiang not helpful for trade talks – NPW
US-China trade deal might not be ready for signing in Chile – US Official
In US-China talks, Beijing’s refusal to spell out farm buys is a big sticking point – Investing.com
USD:
Trump White House wants direct control over where cars are made – BBG
US House back measure that would impose sanctions on Turkey over Syria – HAA

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
2350 JPY Large Retailers Sales (SEP) A 10% | C 8.8% | P 0.4% | R 0.3%
JPY Retail Trade YoY (SEP) A 9.1% | C 6.1% | P 2.0% | R 1.8%
AUD CPI YoY (3Q) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.6%
AUD CPI QoQ (3Q) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.6%
AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean QoQ (3Q) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean YoY (3Q) A 1.6% | C 1.6% | P 1.6%
AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median QoQ (3Q) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median YoY (3Q) A 1.2% | C 1.3% | P 1.3%
0630 EUR French GDP YoY (3Q P) C 1.3% | P 1.4%
0800 CHF KOF Leading Indicator (OCT) C 93.5 | P 93.2
0855 EUR German Unemployment Change (000s) (OCT) C 2.0k | P 10.0k
0855 EUR German Unemployment Claims rate s.a. (OCT) C 5.0% | P 5.0%
1100 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (OCT 25) P -11.9%
1215 USD ADP Employment Change (OCT) C 115k | P 135k
1230 USD GDP Annualized (QoQ) (3Q A) C 1.6% | P 2.0%
1230 USD Core PCE (QoQ) (3Q A) C 2.2% | P 1.9%
1230 USD GDP Product Price Index (3Q A) C 1.9% | P 2.4%
1230 USD Personal Consumption (3Q A) C 2.6% | P 4.6%
1300 EUR German CPI YoY (OCT P) C 1.1% | P 1.2%
1300 EUR German CPI MoM (OCT P) C 0.0% | P 0.0%
1300 EUR German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (OCT P) C 0.8% | P 0.9%
1400 CAD BoC Rate Decision (OCT 30) C 1.75% | P 1.75%
1430 USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (OCT 25) P -1699K
1800 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) (OCT 30) C 1.50% | P 1.75%
1800 USD FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (OCT 30) C 1.75% | P 2.00%
1800 USD Interest rate on Excess Reserves (OCT 31) C 1.55% | P 1.80%
2145 NZD Building Permits MoM (SEP) P 0.8%
2350 JPY Industrial Production YoY (SEP P) C -0.1% | P -4.7%

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A little choppy through the day with debate and then late in the evening voting on the next General election, opening around the 1.2860 level the market moved into the Tokyo session with the market holding around the opening level and then quickly dipping to the 1.2835 level before spending the rest of the session into the London opening recovering the opening level, holding initially the market then made a quick move lower to test lightly towards the 1.2800 level testing the level again over the next hour or so the market eventually broke higher with some agreement expected by the parties but nervous none the less, the move through into the NYK session saw some steady buying and as the market moved towards the London close pushed lightly through the 1.2900 level having struggled for a time around the 1.2880-90 areas however, highs made like the low the market reversed and quickly tested back through the 1.2850 level bouncing off the 1.2840 area and settled into a tight range through to the close just above the opening level.
• JPY: The USDJPY opened around the 108.95 level and the push through to the Tokyo session testing lightly above the 109.00 areas with a small spike through to the 109.07 area before drifting back to the opening level holding between the 108.95-109.00 level through to early London, steady selling through to the London opening saw the market testing through to the 108.85 level and then the rest of the session apart from one spike lower through to the 108.75 areas was broadly contained in the 108.85-95 areas.
• AUD: Opening just below the 0.6840 level the market drifted to make the low around the 0.6835 level before Tokyo moved into the market pushing steadily through the early part of the session to test the 0.6850 areas, a short period of a tight range around the 0.6845-50 areas before pushing through the level and testing steadily through to the 0.6860 area, after a second attempt at the level the market slipped slowly lower testing through to the 0.6845 area again and only once the market moved towards the NYK open did the market start to move higher again in small steps to push through deep into NYK and the 0.6870 areas before slipping back to range in the 0.6860-65 area to the close.
• EUR: A slow drift through the Asian session opening around the 1.1100 level dipping into the low 1.1090’s and then rallying back above the 1.1100 area for the early highs, once that run was over the market then drifted to the London opening testing to the 1.1090 in quiet trading and then London sold it down through to the 1.1075 areas to make the low of the day, the move through to the NYK session the market pushed back above the 1.1090 level and NYK picked the market up with a steady rise through to the 1.1115 areas before drifting back to the 1.1110 areas for a long quiet run to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD RBA Governor Lowe gives Speech in Canberra
GBP Nationwide house price n.s.a. YoY (OCT) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%
GBP Consumer Credit YoY (SEP) A 6.0% | P 5.4%
GBP Mortgage Approvals (SEP) A 65.919k | C 65.0k | P 65.5k | R 65.681k
GBP Net Consumer Credit A 0.82b | C 0.9b | P 0.9b | R 0.96b
GBP Net Lending Sec. on dwellings (SEP) A 3.846b | C 3.8b | P 3.9b | R 3.7b
USD S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (AUG) A -0.16% | C -0.1% | P 0.02 | R 0.04%
USD S&P Case-Shiller Composite-20 YoY (AUG) C 2.04% | P 2.0%
USD S&P Case-Shiller US Home Price index YoY (AUG) A 3.17% | P 3.18% | R 3.14%
USD Consumer Confidence Index A 125.9 | C 128 | P 125.1
USD Conf. Board present Situation (OCT) A 172.3 | P 169
USD Pending Home Sales YoY (SEP) A 6.3% | P 1.1% | R 1.0%

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