Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.049 | EURUSD 1.10331 | AUDUSD 0.68512 | NZDUSD 0.63654 | USDCAD 1.32321 | USDCHF 0.99338 | GBPUSD 1.28531 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10378 | 1.10265

USDJPY                109.180 | 108.988

GBPUSD              1.28694 | 1.28439

USDCHF               0.99431 | 0.99314

AUDUSD             0.68538 | 0.6833

USDCAD              1.32488 | 1.32321

NZDUSD              0.63662 | 0.63262

EURCHF               1.09719 | 1.09600

EURGBP              0.85847 | 0.85773

EURJPY                120.471 | 120.263

For Today

  • GBP: Cable opened just above the 1.2850 areas and limited attempts higher managed to push the market through to just above the 1.2865 area however, the market remained trapped around the 1.2855-60 area through to the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.2750 areas with likely stronger bids joining the congestive bids, a push through will see weak bids into the 1.2700 areas with stronger bids likely on any test of the 1.2650 areas with those bids likely to continue through to the 1.2630 areas, Topside offers light through to the 1.2900 some congestion around the level with the congestion light stops on a push through the 1.2920 level then further congestion likely to continue through to the 1.3000 areas and the stronger offers appear.
  • JPY: Opening quietly the USDJPY saw some minor gyration around the opening before settling and pushing into the Tokyo session pushing off a spike through to the just below the 109.00 level and reversing on a steady push through to the 109.15 area not quiet able to test the 109.20 level before settling in to a steady tight range around the 109.15 level to the grey hours, Topside offers 109.50 levels and increasing further on any push to the 110.00 level likely stronger stops on a push through the 110.20 areas before the market to 110.50 and stronger offers likely to appear in the area. Downside bids light back through the 108.00 areas with weak stops likely on a dip through the 107.80 area and congestion likely through the 107.50 level and continuing into growing bids in the 107.00 areas.
  • AUD: A weaker JPY saw a weaker Oz with the market opening unchanged around the 0.6850 level dipping towards the 0.6845 before moving into the Tokyo session to test to the highs just below the 0.6855 area and dipping through to push towards the 0.6830 area before holding and starting a slow recovery through to the opening area for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids light through the 68 cents level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6780 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
  • EUR: Euro saw limited movement opening just above the 1.1030 area and then moving through to the Tokyo session unable to push to far above the 1.1035 area then dipping back from those highs to slip through to the high 1.1020’s reversing after the test lower and slowly rising through to the grey hours pushing the 1.1035 area, Downside congestion continues in the current area with the congestion likely to extend through to the 1.1000 areas with weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 109.50 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

 

Overnight News

RUB/USD:

Russian official sees threat in US attempts to gain unilateral advantage in global trade – TASS

AUD:

Signs Mortgage holders running down debt rather than spending up – SMH

NZD:

Westpac now sees RBNZ Cutting cash rate to 0.75% on Wednesday – BBG

USD:

Trump expected to delay auto tariff decision for 6 more months – Politico

GBP:

Robert Peston: Tice Richard tells me rumours his party will stand down more candidates to help Conservatives – TWT

Moody’s:

Lowers Global sovereign outlook to negative for 2020

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       NAB Business Confidence (OCT) A 2 | P 0

NZD       RBNZ 2 year inflation expectation (4Q) A 1.80% | P 1.86%

0600       JPY         Machine Tool Orders YoY (OCT P) P -35.5%

0930       GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3m/YoY (SEP) C 3.8% | P 3.8%

0930       GBP       Claimant Count Rate (OCT) P 3.3%

0930       GBP       Employment Change 3m/3m (SEP) C -102k | P -56k

0930       GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3mths (SEP) C 3.9% | P 3.9%

0930       GBP       Jobless Claims Change (OCT) P 21.1k

0930       GBP       Output Per Hour YoY (3Q P) P -0.5%

0930       GBP       Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3m/YoY (SEP) C 3.8% | P 3.8%

1000       EUR        Eurozone ZEW Survey (economic Sentiment) (NOV) P -23.5

1000       EUR        German ZEW Survey Expectations (NOV) C -13.0 | P -22.8

1000       EUR        German ZEW Survey Current Situation (NOV) C -22.0 | P -25.3

2330       AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence (NOV) P -5.5%

2350       JPY         Loans and Discounts Corp YoY (SEP) P 2.44%

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: Opening a little stronger but then holding around the level through to the grey hours before managing to push away from the lows around the 1.2790 level and ranging into the London session around the 1.2800 areas unable to test through the 1.2810 level until deeper into the session ignoring the weaker data and concentrating more on the news that the Brexit party will compete only in areas where the Conservative’s are weakest and allowing the Brexit parties to benefit from no split vote, the market pushed quickly through to the NYK session testing quickly to the 1.2900 area before holding quietly around the 1.2875 areas through into the NYK session and only after a few hours of meandering quietly dipped slowly through to the 1.2850 level and a long quiet run to the close.
    JPY:
    USDJPY Opening quietly around the 109.25 areas and setting the high for the day before dipping on the Tokyo fix through to the 109.10 level before holding quietly for a couple of hours before dipping again through to midsession testing the 109.00 level the move into the grey hours saw a further dip and the market ranging around the 108.95 levels and finally made the lows just through the 108.90 level on the move to the NYK session, NYK started a slow steady recovery back above the 109.00 level testing the 109.10 level before dipping from the close in London and spending a slow crawly back to the 109.05 area for the close.
    AUD:
    A very quiet session for the Oz opening just above the 0.6855 level and rising to just through the 0.6860 level before slowly drifting through to the 0.6850 level to define the range for Asia, London were slow buyers and this produced the high of the day testing the 0.6865 area before dipping back to the 0.6850 area and so the market based through to the close unable to move too much in either direction.
    EUR:
    Opening unchanged from Friday the market moved through into the Tokyo session ranging around the opening level and dipping through to the 1.1015 level to make the lows early in Tokyo before starting a slow push through to the 1.1025 levels before increasing the range through the London session but generally pushing higher through to the 1.1035 level for the move into the NYK session, NYK took the market steadily through to the highs just above the 1.1040 area in a day of limited volume before ranging around the 1.1035 area through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

CNY        CPI YoY (OCT) A 3.8% | C 3.2% | P 3.0%

CNY        PPI YoY (OCT) A -1.6% | C -1.5% | P -1.2%

JPY         Bank Lending ex-trusts YoY (OCT) A 2.2% | P 2.2%

JPY         Bank Lending incl Trusts A 2.0% | P 2.0%

JPY         Machine Orders YoY (SEP) A 5.1% | C 8.1% | P -14.5%

JPY         Trade Balance- BOP Basis (YEN) A 1.1b | C 51.3b | P 50.9b

JPY         Eco Watchers Survey Current (OCT) A 36.7 | C 40.6 | P 46.7

JPY         Eco Watchers Survey outlook SA (OCT) A 43.7 | C 41.9 | P 36.9

CNY        New Yuan Loans CNY (OCT) A 661.3b | C 800.0b | P 1690.0b

CNY        Aggregate Financing CNY (OCT) A 618.9b | C 950.0b | P 2270.0b

GBP       GDP YoY (3Q P) A 1.0% | C 1.1% | P 1.3%

GBP        Construction Output YoY (SEP) A 1.2% | C 0.8% | P 2.4%

GBP       GDP QoQ (3Q P) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P -0.2%

GBP       Industrial Production YoY (SEP) A -1.4% | C -1.2% | P -1.8%

GBP       Manufacturing Production YoY (SEP) A -1.8% | C -1.6% | P -1.7% | R -1.8%

GBP       Monthly Gross Domestic Product MoM (SEP) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.1%

GBP       Trade Balance (SEP) A -3360m | C -2000m | P -1546m

GBP       Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn (SEP) A -4030m | C -2500m | P -2206m | R -3230m

GBP       Visible Trade Balance A -12540m | C -10100m | P -9806m | R -10830m

MXN      Industrial Production NSA A -1.8% | P -1.3%

 

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