Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.609 | EURUSD 1.10722 | AUDUSD 0.68021 | NZDUSD 0.64108 | USDCAD 1.33037 | USDCHF 0.99097 | GBPUSD 1.29232 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10792 | 1.10723

USDJPY                108.595 | 108.289

GBPUSD              1.29326 | 1.29235

USDCHF               0.99085 | 0.98913

AUDUSD             0.68046 | 0.67859

USDCAD              1.33192 | 1.33034

NZDUSD              0.64189 | 0.6398

EURCHF               1.09761 | 1.09596

EURGBP              0.85706 | 0.85653

EURJPY                120.272 | 119.95

For Today

  • GBP: Opening just above the 1.2920 areas and steadily rising through the session to test through the 1.2930 level but unable to push to far through the level and holding through to the grey hours around the level, Topside offers congested on any attempt to the 1.3000 level however, a break through the 1.3020 area will see stops appearing and the market pushing higher with some congestion through to the 1.3100 level the market could struggle without strong impetus and reasoning, downside bids light through to the 1.2900 level with only slightly stronger bids in the area with weak stops on a move back through the level however, congestion then starts to appear on any push through to the 1.2850 area with strong bids likely to hanging around the 1.2800 areas and congestion below.
  • JPY: Opening with a stronger JPY as light flee to safe haven traders moved in testing down through to the 108.40 before moving through into the Tokyo session, Tokyo saw light selling to push the low through to the 108.30 areas before bouncing back and holding around the 108.50 level through to the grey hours, Downside bids into the 108.20 area before stronger bids are likely to appear on any push at the 108.00 area, some weak stops through the 107.80 level and a likely test through to the 107.50 areas with stronger bids along a trend line likely to slow the descent with stronger congestion through into the 107.00 level. Topside offers again around the 109.00 level are likely to be weak however, a push through is likely to see stronger offers reappearing and continuing through to the 109.50 level with stronger offers into this month’s highs.
  • AUD: Very limited movement for the Oz opening around the 68 cents area and slipping slowly to test lightly through the 0.6790 area before returning to the opening level with a limited spike on the push through however, the market remained sub 68 cents for the most part through to the grey hours, Downside bids light through the 0.6770 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
  • EUR: Quiet range for the Euro through Asia with the market rising a little through towards the 1.1080 areas before holding just above the 1.1075 area through to the grey hours, Downside congestion continues in the current area with the congestion likely to extend through to the 1.1000 areas with weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 109.50 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

 

Overnight News

CNY/USD:

Liu: He was confident, but confused about US demands

Liu Comments are according to people who attended dinner

China’s Liu spoke in Beijing on Wednesday at dinner at forum

Trade deal may be delayed into 2020 – BBG

USD/CNY:

Trump says he doesn’t think China is stepping up to the level I want in trade talks

Trump: China wants deal more than me

Trade Commission finds Chinese aluminium wire, cable export harms US industry – RTRs

Trump’s Trade deal edges ahead as risk of collapse looms – BBG

House plans vote backing HK, defying China’s warnings – BBG

USD:

Looking at Apple being exempt from tariffs – BBG

China now US’s most potent Cyber adversary, – FBI official – BBG

Fed saw elevated risks in Oct while deciding to go on hold – BBG

GBP:

UK Conservatives 42%, Labour 31%, – Comres/Telegraph poll

CHF:

Maechler says expansive monetary policy is essential – BBG

AUD:

We Need surplus to pay down debt – Morrison – AGN

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Credit Card Spending YoY (OCT) A 2.5% | P 4.7%

JPY         All Industry Activity Index MoM (SEP) A 1.5% | C 1.5% | P 0.0%

0730       CHF        Industrial Output w.d.a. YoY (3Q) C 4.0% | P 4.8%

0930       GBP       Central Government NCR (OCT) P 14.8b

0930       GBP       PSNB ex Banking Groups (OCT) C 9.3b | P 9.14b

0930       GBP       Public Finances (PSNCR) (OCT) P 2.7b

0930       GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (OCT) C 8.6b | P 8.7b

1000       EUR        OECD Economic outlook

1000       EUR        Bundesbank Publishes Financial Stability Review

1230       EUR        ECB Account of October Policy Meeting (OCT)

1330       USD       Continuing Claims (NOV 9) C 1683k | P 1683k

1330       USD       Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 16) C 219k | P 225k

1330       USD       Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (NOV) C 6.1 | P 5.6

1340       CAD       Canada’s Poloz Gives Fireside Chat in Toronto

1500       EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence (NOV A) C -7.2 | P -7.6

1500       USD       Existing Home Sales MoM (OCT) C 2.1% | P -2.2%

1500       USD       Leading Index (OCT) C -0.1% | P -0.1%

2200       AUD       CBA Australia PMI Composite (NOV P) P 50.0

2200       AUD       Australia PMI Manufacturing (NOV P) P 50.0

2200       AUD       CBA Australia PMI Services (NOV P) P 50.1

2330       JPY         National CPI YoY (OCT) C 0.3% | P 0.2%

2330       JPY         National CPI ex-fresh Food C 0.4% | P 0.3%

2330       JPY         National CPI ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (OCT) C 0.6% | P 0.5%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Very little change over the day however, the move through into the Tokyo session while quiet saw the market dipping from the open dropping from the opening areas around the 1.2930 level through to the 1.2900 to set the low for the session before slowly recovering through to the London opening testing the 1.2920 areas again, London were quick sellers and the market attempted on 3 different occasions to push through the level before bouncing on the third test to trade quickly back to the opening levels in early NYK, the market then held quietly through the session holding around the 1.2920 area to the close.
  • JPY: Dipping on early selling the market then ranged through the Asian session around the 108.50 level unable to push to far below the 108.40 level or even test the 108.60 area, moving into the London session, eventually the market started to rise steadily through to the NYK session regaining the opening levels and the push into the NYK session saw the market rise steadily through to just above the 108.70 level before dipping sharply after the news that the trade deal may be delayed as the wrangling’s continue, the market tested back to the 108.40 area and saw some choppy movements before finishing the day just above the opening level.
  • AUD: A steady drift through the day with the market opening just above the 0.6825 area and slipping through to the 0.6820 in early trading before posting the high of the day on the Tokyo opening just above the 0.6830 level, some light selling on the Tokyo fix saw the market testing through to the 0.6810 areas before recovering a little and running through to the London session holding the 0.6820 areas, London sold the market lower through to the 68 cents area and the market then struggled for direction through to the NYK session, the run to the London close again saw limited pressure and the market slipping through to the 0.6790 areas late into the session and the recovery very limited testing back to the 68 cents level.
  • EUR: A slow slide lower through the run to the NYK session with the Asian session holding quietly through into the Tokyo session before dipping a little from the early highs around the 1.1080 area and dipping to 1.1070 before holding in a tight range through to the London session, the move into London saw the Euro under further pressure if what somewhat light testing through to the 1.1055 area and the move to the NYK session seeing the market testing through the lows lightly before starting a quicker rise through to make the highs of the day off that low, the market rejected the 1.1080 area again and dropped back to the 1.1065 area and then a slow rise through to the close a little short of the opening area.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

 

AUD       Westpac Leading Index MoM (OCT) A -0.07 | P -0.08% | R -0.12%

JPY         Trade Balance Yen (OCT) A 17.3b | C 301.0b | P -123.0b | R -124.8b

CNY        1-Year Loan Prime Rate (NOV) A 4.15% | C 4.20% | P 4.20%

CNY        5-Year Loan Prime Rate (NOV) A 4.80% | C 8.85% | P 4.85%

EUR        ECB Publishes Financial Stability Review

USD       MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 15) A -2.2% | P 9.6%

CAD       Consumer Price Index YoY (OCT) A 1.9% | C 1.9% | P 1.9%

USD       DOE US Crude Oil Inventories A 1379k | C 1149k | P 2219k

USD       FOMC Meeting Minutes (OCT 30)

 

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