Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.609 | EURUSD 1.10594 | AUDUSD 0.67875 | NZDUSD 0.64088 | USDCAD 1.32842 | USDCHF 0.99319 | GBPUSD 1.2910 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.10658 | 1.10574
USDJPY 108.707 | 108.568
GBPUSD 1.29224 | 1.29043
USDCHF 0.99374 | 0.99288
AUDUSD 0.67950 | 0.67861
USDCAD 1.32655 | 1.32700
NZDUSD 0.64080 | 0.63992
EURCHF 1.09929 | 1.09877
EURGBP 0.85699 | 0.85617
EURJPY 120.269 | 120.154

For Today
• GBP: Another quiet day in Asia with the market slowly rising through the pre-Tokyo period to the 1.2920 level from the opening 1.2910 and while Tokyo did attempt to push it through a couple of times through the session it was limited and the market drifting back towards the low opening before holding steady in mid-range, Topside offers congested on any attempt to the 1.3000 level however, a break through the 1.3020 area will see stops appearing and the market pushing higher with some congestion through to the 1.3100 level the market could struggle without strong impetus and reasoning, downside bids light through to the 1.2900 level with only slightly stronger bids in the area with weak stops on a move back through the level however, congestion then starts to appear on any push through to the 1.2850 area with strong bids likely to hanging around the 1.2800 areas and congestion below.
• JPY: Quietly contained market so far with the market holding quietly through the early part of the session around the opening 108.60 before moving into the Tokyo session and light buying taking the market to its highs just through the 108.70 area before slipping to hold around the 108.65 areas through to the grey hours in very quiet trading, Downside bids into the 108.20 area before stronger bids are likely to appear on any push at the 108.00 area, some weak stops through the 107.80 level and a likely test through to the 107.50 areas with stronger bids along a trend line likely to slow the descent with stronger congestion through into the 107.00 level. Topside offers again around the 109.00 level are likely to be weak however, a push through is likely to see stronger offers reappearing and continuing through to the 109.50 level with stronger offers into this month’s highs.
• AUD: Minor trading around the 0.6785-95 area and the range for the day with early Tokyo slowly pushing it through to its highs before drifting off through the remainder of the session to hold quietly into the grey hours around the opening levels, Downside bids light through the 0.6770 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
• EUR: Opening around the 1.1060 level the market started a slow rise through to the Tokyo session testing just above the 1.1065 level and that is almost all she wrote with the market holding quietly just below the level with barely a pulse, Downside congestion continues in the current area with the congestion likely to extend through to the 1.1000 areas with weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 109.50 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

Overnight News
CNY:
China’s true growth could be half of what you think – MacroHive
Deadly Hog virus closes in on one of China’s top pork suppliers – BBG
CNY/USD:
China says Trump is on edge of precipice as HK rights bill hits his desk – WPT
HK bill may become new obstacle to trade deal – SCMP
We all lose if Trump signs into law bills related to HK – SCMP
USD/CNY:
US warships sail in disputed S. China sea amid tensions – NPW
The Dow fell 55pts because the China trade deal is all talk – Barrons – DJ
EUR:
German Banks, Grim outlook darkens with Bundesbank warnings – BBG
USD/EUR:
Trump weighing new trade probe to justify EU tariffs – Politico

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUD CBA Australia PMI Composite (NOV P) A 49.5 | P 50.0
AUD Australia PMI Manufacturing (NOV P) A 49.9 | P 50.0
AUD CBA Australia PMI Services (NOV P) 49.5 | P 50.1 | R 50.8
JPY National CPI YoY (OCT) A 0.2% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%
JPY National CPI ex-fresh Food A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.3%
JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (OCT) A 0.7% | C 0.6% | P 0.5%
JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (NOV P) A 48.6 | P 48.4
0700 EUR German GDP n.s.a. YoY (3Q F) C 1.0% | P 1.0%
0700 EUR German GDP w.d.a. YoY 3Q F) C 0.5% | P 0.5%
0800 EUR ECB Pres. Lagarde speaks in Frankfurt
0830 EUR Markit Germany Services PMI (NOV P) C 52 | P 51.6
0830 EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (NOV P) C 49.3 | P 48.9
0830 EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (NOV P) C 42.9 | P 42.1
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (NOV P) C 50.9 | P 50.6
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (NOV P) C 46.4 | P 45.9
0900 EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV P) C 52.4 | P 52.2
0930 GBP Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (NOV P) C 48.8 | P 49.6
0930 GBP Markit /CIPS UK Composite PMI (NOV P) P 50.0
0930 GBP Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (NOV P) C 50.0 | P 50.0
1200 MXN Bi-Weekly CPI (NOV 15) C 0.65% | P 0.16%
1200 MXN Bi-Weekly CPI YoY (NOV 15) C 3.07% | P 3.03%
1330 CAD Retail Sales MoM (SEP) -0.1% | P -0.1%
1445 USD Markit US Composite PMI (NOV P) P 50.9
1445 USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (NOV P) C 51.4 | P 51.3
1445 USD Markit US Services PMI (NOV P) C 51.4 | P 50.6
1500 USD U. of Mich Sentiment (NOV F) C 95.7 | P 95.7
1800 USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (NOV 22) P 806

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A quiet range through the Asian session with the market slowly rising from the 1.2925 area through to nearly the 1.2935 before slipping back to range just below the 1.2930 into the London session, early buyers extended the Asian highs pushing quickly through to the 1.2940 area before the market slowed but steadily rose through to the 12950 area before pausing for the move into the NYK session and a couple of steps up to make the high for the day around the 1.2970 level however, that was the last we saw of that level and the market went into a steady drop through the 1.2950 quickening from that point as the early buyers covered and the market paused on the 1.2920 area before again dipping through to the 1.2900 level, the market recovered only slightly before running to push gradually through the bids and into the low 1.2890’s before running out of steam and slowly rising back to the 1.2910 level for the close.
• JPY: Early Action saw the market dip from the opening to test to the 108.40 level before steadying and moving into the Tokyo session and dipping this time through the 108.30 level and the lows of the day, the market bounced off the level and quickly pushed back above the 108.50 slowing its ascent it ran steadily through to the London session unchanged on the day and regaining that 108.60 area, a quiet range through the rest of the day saw the market focused around the opening level to the close unchanged. The early movement was more safe haven flows as the USD/CNY uncertainty increases.
• AUD: Very limited range with the market opening around the 68 cents level then slipping back as AUDJPY was impacted by the stronger Yen early in the session before recovering to push back above the 68 cents area from the 0.6785 lows, the move through to the London session saw the market holding around the opening levels again and testing slowly through the morning and into the NYK session pushing to its highs just above the 0.6811 area and as with the other currencies saw the USD pushing back and the Oz slowly sliding through to late in the session dropping to the 0.6785 area again and the lows of the day and a quiet run to the close holding just off the lows.
• EUR: The same overall pattern with the market pushing off the opening just above the 1.1070 areas to just fail to capture the 1.1080 level and very slowly drifting through to the London opening where the market took it off the opening area, London were buyers and steadily pushed it through to the 1.1090 level before holding around the 1.1085 level through to the NYK session and like the others pairs a limited USD selling before the buyers moved in and the Euro dipped in steps through to late in the session testing the low 1.1050’s before holding to the close around the 1.1060 level.

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD Credit Card Spending YoY (OCT) A 2.5% | P 4.7%
JPY All Industry Activity Index MoM (SEP) A 1.5% | C 1.5% | P 0.0%
CHF Industrial Output w.d.a. YoY (3Q) A 8.0% | C 4.0% | P 4.8%
GBP Central Government NCR (OCT) A 0.1b | P 14.8b
GBP PSNB ex Banking Groups (OCT) A 11.2b | C 9.3b | P 9.4b
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (OCT) A 0.4b | P 2.7b
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (OCT) A 10.5b | C 8.6b | P 8.7b
EUR OECD Economic outlook
EUR Bundesbank Publishes Financial Stability Review
EUR ECB Account of October Policy Meeting (OCT)
USD Continuing Claims (NOV 9) A 1695k | C 1683k | P 1683k
USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 16) A 227k | C 219k | P 225k | R 227k
USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (NOV) A 10.4 | C 6.1 | P 5.6
CAD Canada’s Poloz Gives Fireside Chat in Toronto
EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (NOV A) A -7.2 | C -7.2 | P -7.6
USD Existing Home Sales MoM (OCT) A 1.9% | C 2.1% | P -2.2%
USD Leading Index (OCT) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.1%

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