Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.534 | EURUSD 1.09991 | AUDUSD 0.67768 | NZDUSD 0.64221 | USDCAD 1.32835 | USDCHF 0.99935 | GBPUSD 1.29215 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10115 | 1.10007

USDJPY                109.542 | 109.339

GBPUSD              1.29505 | 1.29194

USDCHF               0.99958 | 0.99825

AUDUSD             0.67773 | 0.67593

USDCAD              1.32918 | 1.32776

NZDUSD              0.64294 | 0.64052

EURCHF               1.09955 | 1.09901

EURGBP              0.85188 | 0.8500

EURJPY                120.573 | 120.346

For Today

  • GBP: The new poll helped the market to push quickly higher from the opening having dipped initially back to the 1.2890 level and then touching the 1.2950 before Tokyo moved into the market and a slow drift back through to the 1.2920 areas to make the lows and then holding around the 1.2930 area through to the grey hours, Topside offers continue to increase on a move through to the 1.3000 with weak stops on a break through the 1.3010-20 area and open the topside through to the 1.3050 level where stronger offers are likely to appear, downside bids light through to the 1.2900 area with some limited buyers however, a break through the 1.2880 area will likely see weak stops appearing and he market then free to test 1.2850 level again, with stronger bids likely to appear on a dip through to the 1.2800 areas.
  • JPY: Dipping quickly as GBPJPY profit taking saw the USDJPY dipping through to the 109.34 level and a weaker Tankan set of numbers the market held the lows before starting a steady rise in midsession to test towards the 109.50 area but unable to push back to the opening levels above there, light bids to the downside through the 109.00 area with weak stops likely through the level and opening a move through to the congested 108.50 areas increasing through to the 108.30 before the market opens a little through to 108.00, Topside offers through the 109.60 level then possible weak stops before running into the ubiquitous 109.80-110.00 and increasing the closer the market moves towards the 110.00 level likely congestion continues through the level a short way before giving way to stronger stops and the market then free to push through the 110.50 level.
  • AUD: Dropping quickly back on weaker data saw the oz move from the 0.6775 level to test the 0.6760 before slowly recovering most of the loss through to just below the opening levels the move into the Tokyo session slipped slowly lower through to the 0.6760’s again for the move through to the grey hours, Downside bids light through the 0.6770 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
  • EUR: Rising quickly on the opening with the drag of the Cable tugging it along, moving off the 1.1000 level the market tested weakly through the 1.1010 before drifting back and holding tightly around the 1.1005 level through to the grey hours, Downside weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 1.0950 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

 

 

Overnight News

CNY:

China condemns Trump for signing extremely evil bills that protect Hong Kong protesters – CBS

China reiterates retaliation threat after Trump signs HK Bill

Foreign Ministry: Resolutely opposes US law on Hong Kong – BBG

Foreign Ministry: US attempts to interfere in HK affairs are doomed to fail – BBG

Foreign Ministry: China will take firm counter measures if US continues in this way – BBG

Foreign Ministry: US will have to shoulder all consequences if it continues this way – BBG

Pork price plunge may bring what stocks want, PBoC Stimulus – BBG

China’s household debt rises to record, prompting PBoC warning – CX Daily

China warns US that HK meddling may hurt ties, Cooperation – BBG

GBP:

UK PM Johnson could have largest Conservative win since Thatcher – YouGov pollsters

UK Tories may get 359 seats, Labour 211 – BBG

Hung Parliament is very real risk, UK PM Johnson’s top aide – BBG

AUD:

3Q business investment -0.2% QoQ est. 0.0%

Firms plan to spend A$116.7b in 2019-20 est. A$120b

3Q Equipment, plant, machinery invest fell 3.5% QoQ

3Q Buildings, structures investment rose 2.7% QoQ

NZD:

NZ November business sentiment jumps to highest in 2019 – BBG

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Large retailer’s Sales A -8.2% | C -7.1% | P 10.0%

JPY         Retail Trade YoY (OCT) A -7.1% | C -3.8% | P 9.1%

NZD       ANZ Activity Outlook (OCT) 12.9 | P -3.5

AUD       Private Capital Expenditure (3Q) A -0.2% | C 0.0% | P -0.6%

0645       CHF        GDP QoQ (3Q) C 0.8% | P 0.2%

0645       CHF        GDP QoQ (3Q) C 0.2% | P 0.3%

1300       EUR        German CPI YoY (NOV P) C 1.2% | P 1.1%

1300       EUR        German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (NOV P) C 1.2% | P 0.9%

1300       EUR        German CPI Index MoM (NOV P) C -0.6% | P 0.1%

1300       EUR        German CPI Index Harmonized MoM (NOV P) C 0.7% | P 0.1%

2100       NZD       NZ Government 4-month Financial statements

2145       NZD       Building Permits MoM (OCT) P 7.2%

2330       JPY         Jobless Rate (OCT) C 2.4% | P 2.4%

2350       JPY         Industrial Production YoY (OCT P) C -5.3% | P 1.3%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A slow session for Asia with the market slipping from the opening 1.2865 areas and testing through to the 1.2850 areas to hold through to the grey hours, with a slow push through to the 1.2830 level into the opening in London, London were quick buyers testing to the 1.2850 area and the market pausing before renewing the push higher through to the 1.2885 level before ranging through into the NYK session with a slight drift back to the 1.2870 area and eventually pushing quickly through the 1.2900 level to make highs around the 1.2915 before drifting to the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY buying light through the early part of the session saw the market testing above the 109.10 level and holding tight to that level through until late in the session before attempting to push the 109.20 level into the London session, a drift into the NYK session testing back to the 109.10 areas before again starting a steady rise through to the end of London to test the 109.40 areas paused then continued through to push through the 109.50 level triggering some weak stops on a move to the 109.60 level before drifting lightly back to the close.
  • AUD: A light rise from the opening around the 0.6785 area pushing lightly through the bulk of the session to the 0.6790 areas before dropping quickly back after commentary from Westpac to test through to the 0.6770 level before then rising a little through to the London session, London pushed a little through to the 0.6785 area and held through to the NYK session before testing towards the 0.6790 level and then a slow drift through to the close to end the day just off the lows.
  • EUR: The Euro drifted throughout the day falling back from the opening highs just above the 1.1025 area and testing through to the 1.1015 area into early Tokyo, midsession saw the market continuing to slide and the move into the London session saw the 1.1010 penetrated and eventually break down to the 1.1005 level before NYK moved in and the market made a quick move through to the 1.0990 level to make the lows just above the level, the market then spent a dull session holding around the 1.1000 level through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       RBNZ Publishes Financial stability report

NZD       Trade Balance (OCT) A -1010m | C -1000m | P -12422m

NZD       Trade Balance 12mth YTD (OCT) A -5040m | C -4900m | P -5213m

NZD       RBNZ Governor News Conference on FSR

USD       MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV22) A 1.5% | P -2.2%

USD       Durable Goods Orders (OCT P) A 0.6% | C -0.7% | P -1.2% | R -1.4%

USD       GDP Annualized QoQ (3Q S) A 2.1% | C 1.9% | P 1.9%

USD       GDP Product Price Index (3Q S) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.7%

USD       Continuing Claims (NOV 16) A 1640k | C 1690k | P 1695k

USD       Core PCE Q0Q (3Q S) A 2.1% | P 2.2%

USD       Durables Ex Transportation (OCT P) A 0.6% | C 0.1% | P -0.4%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 23) A 213k | C 220k | P 227k

USD       Personal Consumption (3Q S) A 2.9% | C 2.8% | P 2.9%

USD       Chicago Purchasing Manager (NOV) A 46.3 | C 47.0 | P 43.2

USD       PCE Core YoY (OCT) A 1.6% | C 1.7% | P 1.7%

USD       PCE Core MoM (OCT) A 0.1% | C 0.1% | P 0.0%

USD       Pending Home Sales YoY (OCT) A 3.9% | C 5.5% | P 6.3%

USD       Personal Income A 0.0% | C 0.3% | P 0.3%

USD       Personal Spending (OCT) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%

USD       Real Personal Spending (OCT) A 0.1% | C 0.0% | P 0.2%

USD       DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 22) A 1572k | C -79k | P 1379k

USD       Baker Hughes US Rig Count A 802 | P 803

USD       US FED Beige Book

 

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