Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.505 | EURUSD 1.10091 | AUDUSD 0.67691 | NZDUSD 0.64144 | USDCAD 1.3281 | USDCHF 0.99862 | GBPUSD 1.29114 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10127 | 1.10081

USDJPY                109.602 | 109.454

GBPUSD              1.29168 | 1.29059

USDCHF               0.99897 | 0.99809

AUDUSD             0.67770 | 0.6764

USDCAD              1.32890 | 1.32794

NZDUSD              0.64266 | 0.64171

EURCHF               1.09992 | 1.09934

EURGBP              0.85302 | 0.8525

EURJPY                120.662 | 120.516

For Today

  • GBP: Bank Holiday in the US and a slow day expected with the opening around the 1.2910 level and a slow rise through the session to move into the grey hours pushing towards only the 1.2918 area. Topside offers continue to increase on a move through to the 1.3000 with weak stops on a break through the 1.3010-20 area and open the topside through to the 1.3050 level where stronger offers are likely to appear, downside bids light through to the 1.2900 area with some limited buyers however, a break through the 1.2880 area will likely see weak stops appearing and he market then free to test 1.2850 level again, with stronger bids likely to appear on a dip through to the 1.2800 areas.
  • JPY: Opening around the 109.50 areas and holding just above the level through into the Tokyo session, early Tokyo buying to test just above the 109.60 areas before dropping back quickly through to the opening level and then slowly dipping through to the 109.45 to make the lows of the session and holding in quiet range just above the level to the grey hours, light bids to the downside through the 109.00 area with weak stops likely through the level and opening a move through to the congested 108.50 areas increasing through to the 108.30 before the market opens a little through to 108.00, Topside offers through the 109.60 level then possible weak stops before running into the ubiquitous 109.80-110.00 and increasing the closer the market moves towards the 110.00 level likely congestion continues through the level a short way before giving way to stronger stops and the market then free to push through the 110.50 level.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.6770 and ranging through to deep into the Tokyo session before extending the highs through to the 0.6775 area topping just beyond the level and holding quietly around that level to the grey hours, Downside bids light through the 0.6770 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
  • EUR: Very quiet session for the Euro ranging around the opening 1.1010 level barely breaking a 5 pip range through to the grey hours, Downside weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 1.0950 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

 

Overnight News

NZD:

Robertson: We have space to invest to strengthen the economy

AUD:

AUD heads for 4th week of losses as rate risks mount

USD:

US start up Robinhood withdraws application to become a bank

CNY:

China’s PBoC has room to ease policy but won’t squander options – Official

JPY:

Kuroda warns BoJ isn’t keeping rates low to fund fiscal spending

Japan’s factory output posts biggest fall in almost 2 years

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       NZ Government 4-month Financial statements

NZD       Building Permits MoM (OCT) A -1.1% | P 7.2%

JPY         Jobless Rate (OCT) A 2.4% | C 2.4% | P 2.4%

JPY         Industrial Production YoY (OCT P) A -7.4% | C -5.3% | P 1.3%

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV) A -14 | C -14 | P -14

AUD       Private Sector Credit YoY (OCT) A 2.5% | C 2.7% | P 2.7%

JPY         Construction Orders YoY (OCT) A 6.4% | P -6.8%

JPY         Consumer Confidence Index (NOV) A 38.7 | C 37 | P 36.2

JPY         Housing Starts YoY (OCT) A -5.6% | C -7.4% | P -4.9%

CHF        Switzerland Sovereign Debt to be rated by Moody’s

GBP       Nationwide House Px n.s.a. YoY (NOV) C 0.2% | P 0.4%

0700       EUR        German Retail Sales YoY (OCT) C 3.0% | P 3.4%

0745       EUR        French GDP YoY (3Q F) C 1.3% | P 1.3%

0800       CHF        KOF Leading Indicator C 95.0 | P 94.7

0855       EUR        German Unemployment Change (000’s) (NOV) C 5.0k | P 6.0k

0855       EUR        German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (NOV) C 5.0% | P 5.0%

0930       GBP       Consumer Credit YoY (OCT) P 6.0%

0930       GBP       Mortgage Approvals (OCT) C 65.4k | P 65.9k

0930       GBP       Net Consumer Credit (OCT) C 0.9b | P 0.8b

0930       GBP       Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (OCT) C 3.8b | P 3.8b

1000       EUR        Eurozone CPI Core YoY (NOV P) C 1.2% | P 1.1%

1000       EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate YoY (NOV) C 0.9% | P 0.7%

1000       EUR        Eurozone CPI Index MoM (NOV P) C -0.4% | P 0.1%

1000       EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate (OCT) C 7.5% | P 7.5%

1100       EUR        Italian GDP w.d.a. YoY (3Q F) C 0.3% | P 0.3%

1330       CAD       GDP YoY (SEP) C 1.4% | P 1.3%

1330       CAD       Quarterly GDP Annualized 3Q C 1.3% | P 3.7%

1330       CAD       GDP MoM (SEP) C 0.1% | P 0.1%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening with a strong push the market moved off the 1.2920 level to test above the 1.2950 area after the release of a poll suggesting the Conservatives would win with 359 seats with a strong majority, having hit the highs thought the market slid steadily back through to the 1.2920 level into the Tokyo session before recovering and holding around the 1.2930 level till late in the session, the move into the grey hours saw the highs tested again and holding then between the 1.2940-50 level through to the London opening and some profit taking moving in to test back to the 1.2930 level and holding in a tight range between 1.2930-40 through towards the NYK session before slipping through to test through to the 1.2900 level and basing around that level through to the end of the session with an early close in NYK holding around the 1.2910 level.
  • JPY: Dipping from the opening with GBPJPY profit taking moving in and not really helped by a weaker Tankan set of numbers with the USDJPY moving off the early 109.55 area highs to test quickly through to the 109.35 level and the lows of the day, the move into Tokyo saw a steady rise eventually through to the 109.45 level and the market then trading around the level through to the London session, even then the movement was very limited and only as the market started to run to the NYK session did the market start a steady rise through to the opening levels and a quiet run to the close.
  • AUD: Dropping back from the opening around the 0.6775 level the market quickly tested the 0.6760 area before recovering a little however, that was the low of the day and the market traded through the day around the 0.6760 level in a very narrow range and ended the day only just short of the opening level.
  • EUR: Initially finding support from the move in the GBP Euro’s move through to the 1.1010 from the opening around the 1.1000 level and then held through the Asian session around the 1.1005 level, the move into the London session saw the market slowly rising through to make the highs just short of the 1.1020 level before dropping back towards the lows for the move into the NYK session, then the market held around the 1.1005 level again and only late in the session did it run towards the 1.1010 level for the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Large retailer’s Sales A -8.2% | C -7.1% | P 10.0%

JPY         Retail Trade YoY (OCT) A -7.1% | C -3.8% | P 9.1%

NZD       ANZ Activity Outlook (OCT) A 12.9 | P -3.5

AUD       Private Capital Expenditure (3Q) A -0.2% | C 0.0% | P -0.6%

CHF        GDP QoQ (3Q) A 1.1% | C 0.8% | P 0.2%

CHF        GDP QoQ (3Q) A 0.4% | C 0.2% | P 0.3%

EUR        German CPI YoY (NOV P) A 1.1% | C 1.2% | P 1.1%

EUR        German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (NOV P) A 1.2% | C 1.2% | P 0.9%

EUR        German CPI Index MoM (NOV P) A -0.8% | C -0.6% | P 0.1%

EUR        German CPI Index Harmonized MoM (NOV P) A -0.8% | C 0.7% | P 0.1%

 

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