Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.492 | EURUSD 1.1023 | AUDUSD 0.67612 | NZDUSD 0.64226 | USDCAD 1.32768 | USDCHF 0.99996 | GBPUSD 1.2941 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10259 | 1.10154

USDJPY                109.727 | 109.492

GBPUSD              1.29205 | 1.29096

USDCHF               1.00084 | 0.99973

AUDUSD             0.67774 | 0.67619

USDCAD              1.32909 | 1.3276

NZDUSD              0.64513 | 0.64246

EURCHF               1.10274 | 1.10158

EURGBP              0.85383 | 0.85293

EURJPY                120.924 | 120.651

For Today

  • GBP: Opening some 20 pips lower from Fridays close as the Labour party sees the gap lowering in the polls however, once open around the 1.2915 level the market held in a very tight range through to the grey hours, Topside offers continue to increase on a move through to the 1.3000 with weak stops on a break through the 1.3010-20 area and open the topside through to the 1.3050 level where stronger offers are likely to appear, downside bids light through to the 1.2900 area with some limited buyers however, a break through the 1.2880 area will likely see weak stops appearing and he market then free to test 1.2850 level again, with stronger bids likely to appear on a dip through to the 1.2800 areas.
  • JPY: Opening a little higher and testing to the 109.55 level in the first few minutes before holding quietly through to the Tokyo session before running again and pushing through to the 109.70 level eventually peaking just above the level before slowly drifting a few pips lower through to the grey hours holding around the 109.65 area, light bids to the downside through the 109.00 area with weak stops likely through the level and opening a move through to the congested 108.50 areas increasing through to the 108.30 before the market opens a little through to 108.00, Topside offers through the 109.60 level then possible weak stops before running into the ubiquitous 109.80-110.00 and increasing the closer the market moves towards the 110.00 level likely congestion continues through the level a short way before giving way to stronger stops and the market then free to push through the 110.50 level.
  • AUD: Opening unchanged the market held around the 0.6765 area through into the Tokyo session before starting a slow rise through to the 0.6775 area and then holding around the level through to the grey hours in quiet trading, Downside bids light through the 0.6770 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
  • EUR: Quiet session with the market holding around the 1.1020 areas through to the grey hours, Downside weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 1.0950 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

 

 

Overnight News

EUR/GBP:

EU’s Dombrovskis warns on London’s Post Brexit market access – FT

NZD:

NZ Treasury says growth likely to be below budget forecasts – BBG

Early signs of growth may be levelling off – BBG

GDP growth likely to fall short of budget forecast – BBG

USD/CNY:

US-CNY deal was now stalled because of Hong Kong legislation – Axios citing source close to negotiating team

China insists on tariff rollbacks as part of phase one trade deal – Dj

US weighs new rules to further restrict Huawei suppliers – RTRs

HKD:

Unrest rages on as Police clash with protesters – BBG

CNY:

China braces for December D-Day, the unprecedented default on state owned enterprise – Zero Hedge

China financial warning signs are flashing almost everywhere – BBG

AUD:

Australia investment stung by US-China trade war – DJ

RBA May be the Grinch stealing retailers Christmas – DJ

EUR:

Merkel’s coalition shaken to core by partners choice of leader – BBG

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

CNY        Manufacturing PMI (NOV) A 50.2 | C 49.5 | P 49.3

CNY        Composite PMI (NOV) A 53.7 | P 52.0

CNY        Non-Manufacturing PMI (NOV) A 54.4 | C 53.1 | P 52.8

AUD       AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (NOV) A 48.1 | P 51.6

NZD       Terms of Trade Index QoQ (3Q) A -4.6% | C 1.0% | P 1.6%

AUD       TD Securities Inflation YoY (NOV) A 1.5% | P 1.5%

AUD       Building Approvals YoY (OCT) A -23.6% | C -18.0% | P -17.0%

NZD       Treasury Publishes Monthly Economic Indicators

CNY        Caixin China PMI Manufacturing (NOV) A 51.8 | C 51.3 | P 51.7

0730       CHF        Retail Sales Real YoY (OCT) P 0.9%

0830       CHF        PMI Manufacturing (NOV) P 49.4

1400       EUR        President Lagarde Testifies at European Parliament

1430       CAD       RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (NOV) P 51.2

1500       USD       ISM Employment (NOV) P 47.7

1500       USD       ISM Manufacturing (NOV) C 49.5 | P 48.3

1500       USD       ISM Prices Paid (NOV) C 47 | P 45.5

1530       MXN      Markit Mexico PMI Manufacturing (NOV)) P 50.4

2350       JPY         Monetary Base YoY (NOV) P 3.1%

2350       JPY         Monetary Base End of Period (NOV) P 523.0t

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet early part of the session running around the opening 1.2910 level before starting a run through to the 1.2920 area for the move into the grey hours, Early London sent the market down to the 1.2900 level and held through into early London pushing in a quick move through to the 1.2880 areas before finding support and recovering through to the 1.2900 level for the move into a bank holiday NYK session and the same result with the market testing into the 1.2880 area unlike the last run the market started a steady climb through to the 1.2540 level before running out of steam as the London session ended and the market held through to the close holding the 1.2330-40 areas.
  • JPY: Opening around the 109.50 areas the market struggled for direction the move into the Tokyo session the market tested smartly through to the 109.60 levels in the first hour before drifting back and continuing through to the 109.45 area and the early lows, the move through the grey hours saw the market slowly rising through the session testing through to the highs again and pushing quickly on the break through to just above the 109.65 area before holding quietly for short period and then starting a slow steady dip through to the opening levels then triggering a few weak stops on a dip to the 109.40 level and the end of the London session, the market then held quietly through to the close before quickly rising in the last minutes to finish unchanged on the day.
    AUD:
    A quiet range through to midsession in Tokyo, ranging in the first few hours around the 0.6765-70 then quickly pushing through to the 0.6775 level and holding quietly for several hours through to the bank holiday NYK session to reverse the meagre gains and push through to the 0.6750 level before finding stronger bids and holding through to the close in a somewhat patchy run to the close.
  • EUR: A very quiet session for the Asian session with the Euro holding around the 1.1010 opening level through into the London session, London started to sell steadily through the first several hours testing the 1.1000 areas, some selling into the new period testing through to the 109.80 level before bouncing and running steadily through to the 1.1020 level peaking just short of the 1.1030 level and holding around the 1.1020 area for a long run to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       NZ Government 4-month Financial statements

NZD       Building Permits MoM (OCT) A -1.1% | P 7.2%

JPY         Jobless Rate (OCT) A 2.4% | C 2.4% | P 2.4%

JPY         Industrial Production YoY (OCT P) A -7.4% | C -5.3% | P 1.3%

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV) A -14 | C -14 | P -14

AUD       Private Sector Credit YoY (OCT) A 2.5% | C 2.7% | P 2.7%

JPY         Construction Orders YoY (OCT) A 6.4% | P -6.8%

JPY         Consumer Confidence Index (NOV) A 38.7 | C 37 | P 36.2

JPY         Housing Starts YoY (OCT) A -5.6% | C -7.4% | P -4.9%

CHF        Switzerland Sovereign Debt to be rated by Moody’s

EUR        German Retail Sales YoY (OCT) A 0.8% | C 3.0% | P 3.4%

EUR        French GDP YoY (3Q F) A 1.4% | C 1.3% | P 1.3%

CHF        KOF Leading Indicator A 93.0 | C 95.0 | P 94.7

EUR        German Unemployment Change (000’s) (NOV) A -16.9 | C 5.0k | P 6.0k

EUR        German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (NOV) A 5.0% | C 5.0% | P 5.0%

GBP       Consumer Credit YoY (OCT) A 6.1% | P 6.0% | R 5.9%

GBP       Mortgage Approvals (OCT) A 64.6k | C 65.4k | P 65.9k | R 65.8k

GBP       Net Consumer Credit (OCT) A 1.33b | C 0.9b | P 0.8b

GBP       Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (OCT) A 4.3b | C 3.8b | P 3.8b

EUR        Eurozone CPI Core YoY (NOV P) A 1.3% | C 1.2% | P 1.1%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate YoY (NOV) A 1.0% | C 0.9% | P 0.7%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Index MoM (NOV P) A -0.3% | C -0.4% | P 0.1%

EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate (OCT) A 7.5%V | C 7.5% | P 7.5%

EUR        Italian GDP w.d.a. YoY (3Q F) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.3%

CAD       GDP YoY (SEP) A 1.6% | C 1.4% | P 1.3%

CAD       Quarterly GDP Annualized 3Q A 1.3% | C 1.3% | P 3.7%

CAD       GDP MoM (SEP) A 0.1%V | C 0.1% | P 0.1%

 

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