Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.492 | EURUSD 1.1023 | AUDUSD 0.67612 | NZDUSD 0.64226 | USDCAD 1.32768 | USDCHF 0.99996 | GBPUSD 1.2941 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10259 | 1.10154
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.727 | 109.492
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29205 | 1.29096
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00084 | 0.99973
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.67774 | 0.67619
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32909 | 1.3276
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.64513 | 0.64246
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10274 | 1.10158
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85383 | 0.85293
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.924 | 120.651
For Today
- GBP: Opening some 20 pips lower from Fridays close as the Labour party sees the gap lowering in the polls however, once open around the 1.2915 level the market held in a very tight range through to the grey hours, Topside offers continue to increase on a move through to the 1.3000 with weak stops on a break through the 1.3010-20 area and open the topside through to the 1.3050 level where stronger offers are likely to appear, downside bids light through to the 1.2900 area with some limited buyers however, a break through the 1.2880 area will likely see weak stops appearing and he market then free to test 1.2850 level again, with stronger bids likely to appear on a dip through to the 1.2800 areas.
- JPY: Opening a little higher and testing to the 109.55 level in the first few minutes before holding quietly through to the Tokyo session before running again and pushing through to the 109.70 level eventually peaking just above the level before slowly drifting a few pips lower through to the grey hours holding around the 109.65 area, light bids to the downside through the 109.00 area with weak stops likely through the level and opening a move through to the congested 108.50 areas increasing through to the 108.30 before the market opens a little through to 108.00, Topside offers through the 109.60 level then possible weak stops before running into the ubiquitous 109.80-110.00 and increasing the closer the market moves towards the 110.00 level likely congestion continues through the level a short way before giving way to stronger stops and the market then free to push through the 110.50 level.
- AUD: Opening unchanged the market held around the 0.6765 area through into the Tokyo session before starting a slow rise through to the 0.6775 area and then holding around the level through to the grey hours in quiet trading, Downside bids light through the 0.6770 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
- EUR: Quiet session with the market holding around the 1.1020 areas through to the grey hours, Downside weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 1.0950 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.
Overnight News
EUR/GBP:
EU’s Dombrovskis warns on London’s Post Brexit market access FT
NZD:
NZ Treasury says growth likely to be below budget forecasts BBG
Early signs of growth may be levelling off BBG
GDP growth likely to fall short of budget forecast BBG
USD/CNY:
US-CNY deal was now stalled because of Hong Kong legislation Axios citing source close to negotiating team
China insists on tariff rollbacks as part of phase one trade deal Dj
US weighs new rules to further restrict Huawei suppliers RTRs
HKD:
Unrest rages on as Police clash with protesters – BBG
CNY:
China braces for December D-Day, the unprecedented default on state owned enterprise Zero Hedge
China financial warning signs are flashing almost everywhere – BBG
AUD:
Australia investment stung by US-China trade war DJ
RBA May be the Grinch stealing retailers Christmas DJ
EUR:
Merkel’s coalition shaken to core by partners choice of leader BBG
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI (NOV) A 50.2 | C 49.5 | P 49.3
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Composite PMI (NOV) A 53.7 | P 52.0
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-Manufacturing PMI (NOV) A 54.4 | C 53.1 | P 52.8
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (NOV) A 48.1 | P 51.6
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Terms of Trade Index QoQ (3Q) A -4.6% | C 1.0% | P 1.6%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â TD Securities Inflation YoY (NOV) A 1.5% | P 1.5%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals YoY (OCT) A -23.6% | C -18.0% | P -17.0%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Treasury Publishes Monthly Economic Indicators
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin China PMI Manufacturing (NOV) A 51.8 | C 51.3 | P 51.7
0730Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Real YoY (OCT) P 0.9%
0830Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing (NOV) P 49.4
1400Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â President Lagarde Testifies at European Parliament
1430Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI (NOV) P 51.2
1500Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Employment (NOV) P 47.7
1500Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing (NOV) C 49.5 | P 48.3
1500Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid (NOV) C 47 | P 45.5
1530Â Â Â Â Â Â MXNÂ Â Â Â Â Markit Mexico PMI Manufacturing (NOV)) P 50.4
2350Â Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base YoY (NOV) P 3.1%
2350Â Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base End of Period (NOV) P 523.0t
Harry Hindsight
Â
- GBP: A quiet early part of the session running around the opening 1.2910 level before starting a run through to the 1.2920 area for the move into the grey hours, Early London sent the market down to the 1.2900 level and held through into early London pushing in a quick move through to the 1.2880 areas before finding support and recovering through to the 1.2900 level for the move into a bank holiday NYK session and the same result with the market testing into the 1.2880 area unlike the last run the market started a steady climb through to the 1.2540 level before running out of steam as the London session ended and the market held through to the close holding the 1.2330-40 areas.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.50 areas the market struggled for direction the move into the Tokyo session the market tested smartly through to the 109.60 levels in the first hour before drifting back and continuing through to the 109.45 area and the early lows, the move through the grey hours saw the market slowly rising through the session testing through to the highs again and pushing quickly on the break through to just above the 109.65 area before holding quietly for short period and then starting a slow steady dip through to the opening levels then triggering a few weak stops on a dip to the 109.40 level and the end of the London session, the market then held quietly through to the close before quickly rising in the last minutes to finish unchanged on the day.
AUD: A quiet range through to midsession in Tokyo, ranging in the first few hours around the 0.6765-70 then quickly pushing through to the 0.6775 level and holding quietly for several hours through to the bank holiday NYK session to reverse the meagre gains and push through to the 0.6750 level before finding stronger bids and holding through to the close in a somewhat patchy run to the close. - EUR: A very quiet session for the Asian session with the Euro holding around the 1.1010 opening level through into the London session, London started to sell steadily through the first several hours testing the 1.1000 areas, some selling into the new period testing through to the 109.80 level before bouncing and running steadily through to the 1.1020 level peaking just short of the 1.1030 level and holding around the 1.1020 area for a long run to the close.
Â
Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NZ Government 4-month Financial statements
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits MoM (OCT) A -1.1% | P 7.2%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Rate (OCT) A 2.4% | C 2.4% | P 2.4%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production YoY (OCT P) A -7.4% | C -5.3% | P 1.3%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV) A -14 | C -14 | P -14
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Sector Credit YoY (OCT) A 2.5% | C 2.7% | P 2.7%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Construction Orders YoY (OCT) A 6.4% | P -6.8%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Index (NOV) A 38.7 | C 37 | P 36.2
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts YoY (OCT) A -5.6% | C -7.4% | P -4.9%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Switzerland Sovereign Debt to be rated by Moody’s
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales YoY (OCT) A 0.8% | C 3.0% | P 3.4%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP YoY (3Q F) A 1.4% | C 1.3% | P 1.3%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator A 93.0 | C 95.0 | P 94.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change (000’s) (NOV) A -16.9 | C 5.0k | P 6.0k
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. (NOV) A 5.0% | C 5.0% | P 5.0%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Credit YoY (OCT) A 6.1% | P 6.0% | R 5.9%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals (OCT) A 64.6k | C 65.4k | P 65.9k | R 65.8k
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Consumer Credit (OCT) A 1.33b | C 0.9b | P 0.8b
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (OCT) A 4.3b | C 3.8b | P 3.8b
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core YoY (NOV P) A 1.3% | C 1.2% | P 1.1%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate YoY (NOV) A 1.0% | C 0.9% | P 0.7%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Index MoM (NOV P) A -0.3% | C -0.4% | P 0.1%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate (OCT) A 7.5%V | C 7.5% | P 7.5%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian GDP w.d.a. YoY (3Q F) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.3%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP YoY (SEP) A 1.6% | C 1.4% | P 1.3%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Quarterly GDP Annualized 3Q A 1.3% | C 1.3% | P 3.7%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP MoM (SEP) A 0.1%V | C 0.1% | P 0.1%
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.