Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.871 | EURUSD 1.10773 | AUDUSD 0.68493 | NZDUSD 0.66317 | USDCAD 1.32013 | USDCHF 0.98882 | GBPUSD 1.31041 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10868 | 1.10773

USDJPY                108.932 | 108.777

GBPUSD              1.31179 | 1.31003

USDCHF               0.98923 | 0.98757

AUDUSD             0.68548 | 0.68337

USDCAD              1.32024 | 1.3181

NZDUSD              0.65617 | 0.65244

EURCHF               1.09531 | 1.09472

EURGBP              0.84563 | 0.84496

EURJPY                120.715 | 120.568

For Today

  • GBP: A slow but steady rise through the session to test towards the 1.3120 level before holding quietly into the grey hours just off the highs, Topside offers congested through the next two big figures and while overall there is nothing special its likely to be continuous with stronger patches around the sentiment4al levels in particular however, this push above the 1.3100 areas does open up a longer steady rally through to the 1.3400 level where stronger sellers are likely to appear with weak stops as with the congestion around those sentimental levels, Downside bids likely into the 1.3050 levels as the late arrivals look for bargains on any dips and through the level likely to find stronger bids appearing on any dips through to the 1.3000 level with strong stops possibly through the levels into the 1.2980 area.
  • JPY: Fairly range bound for the session holding generally around the 108.80-90 level with a couple of tests above the level before running to the grey hours dipping through the 108.80 level, Topside offers strong through the 109.80-110.00 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening up only too the 110.50 areas with likely congestion then kicking in to slow the ascent any further or at least limit it in all likelihood, downside bids light through to the 108.50 level with some congestion around the level and likely to continue through to the stronger 108.00 area limited stops through the level and then further congestion likely to reappear through to the 107.50 areas and stronger bids thereafter.
  • AUD: Another poor set of numbers saw the market dropping back from the early highs just below the 0.6855 areas dropping quickly into the mid 0.6830’s before a steady rise towards the opening level and then drifting to the grey hours holding around the 0.6840 area. Topside congestion limited around the 0.6850 area then increasing on any test through to the 0.6880-0.6900 areas with strong offers likely to be mixed with light stops and only once the market pushes through the 0.6830 area will the stops count and force the market into the usually congested areas around the 0.6850 and stronger offers thereafter. Downside bids light through to the 0.6750 area with some strong congestion through the area and increasing as the market pushes for the 0.6720-0.6700 levels with any weak stops likely to be buried below the 0.6680 level however, a push through to the 0.6670-60 area is likely to see strong stops appearing from the break out crowd and the market vulnerable to a deeper move.
  • EUR: Moving off the opening 1.1080 level and trading slowly to the 1.1088 area in a very narrow range through the session, Topside congestion limited around the 0.6850 area then increasing on any test through to the 0.6880-0.6900 areas with strong offers likely to be mixed with light stops and only once the market pushes through the 0.6830 area will the stops count and force the market into the usually congested areas around the 0.6850 and stronger offers thereafter. Downside bids light through to the 0.6750 area with some strong congestion through the area and increasing as the market pushes for the 0.6720-0.6700 levels with any weak stops likely to be buried below the 0.6680 level however, a push through to the 0.6670-60 area is likely to see strong stops appearing from the break out crowd and the market vulnerable to a deeper move.

 

Overnight News

GBP:

Conservatives at 42%, Labour at 32% in latest poll, all these polls tend to have a bias dependent on which newspaper or pollster is used

USD:

Trump considers 14,000 more troops for Mideast

Trump says he’s cancelling new conference at NATO

NZD:

RBNZ Orr: In a hold phase on monetary policy

RBNZ Orr: Bank Capital impact on monpol very limited

NZ gives banks seven years to increase capital buffers

RBNZ: Total Capital to rise to 18% for big banks, 16% for small

RBNZ: Big banks must raise tier 1 capital to 16% of RWA

JPY/KRW:

JPY TradeMin Kaiiyama: Japan and S. Korea agreed to hold working level talks on export controls on Dec 15

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       Trade Balance (OCT) A 4502m | C 6500m | P 7180m

AUD       Retail Sales MoM (OCT) A 0.0% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%

0700       EUR        German Factory Orders n.s.a. YoY (OCT) C -4.7% | P -5.4%

0830       EUR        Markit Germany Construction PMI (NOV) P 51.5

1000       EUR        Eurozone Government Expenditure QoQ (3Q) C 0.4% | P 0.4%

1000       EUR        Eurozone GDP s.a. YoY (3Q F) C 1.2% | P 1.2%

1000       EUR        Eurozone Retail Sales YoY (OCT) C 2.2% | P 3.1%

1330       USD       Continuing Claims (NOV 23) C 1660k | P 1640k

1330       USD       Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 30) C 215k | P 213k

1330       USD       Trade Balance (OCT) C -48.9b | P 52.5b

1500       USD       Durable Goods Orders (OCT F) C 0.6% | P 0.6%

1500       USD       Factory Orders (OCT) 0.3% | P -0.6%

2130       AUD       AiG Performance of Construction Index (NOV) P 43.9

2330       JPY         Labour Cash Earnings YoY (OCT) C 0.2% | P 0.5%

2330       JPY         Overall Household Spending YoY (OCT) C -3.2% | P 9.5%

2330       JPY         Real Cash Earnings YoY (OCT) C -0.3% | P 0.2%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A reasonably quiet session through the Asian session with the market unable to break the 1.3000 level with any conviction however, the continual testing of the level thinned out the offers although the move through to the London session saw the market drifting the furthest from the level to test the 1.2985 level, London came in buying and the market didn’t touch the sides as the 1.3000 level broke completely and quickly rose through to the 1.3050 level before pausing through to just before the NYK opening pushing through to the 1.3060 area and then steadily rising through the session to push lightly through the 1.3100 level, the market ranged through the NYK session around the 1.3100 level unable to push far through to the 1.3120 areas before dipping back just through the figure to hold quietly to the close.
  • JPY: Opening around the 108.60 areas the market slipped lower on the opening in Tokyo testing the 108.50 level and holding quietly between the 108.50 and opening levels through to the grey hours before dipping to the lows of the day testing a little through the 108.45 area before lifting quickly in the London session as GBP rose triggering weak stops in GBPJPY and the USDJPY responded in line to push quickly through to the 108.80 area before drifting through to the NYK session dipping back eventually to the opening levels, NYK eventually responded to the rallying GBP with the USDJPY again pushing this time a little more steadily to test through to the 108.90 areas and after a few hours pushed towards the highs testing through to just short of the 109.00 levels before drifting back for the close.
  • AUD: Rising a little to push a little through the 0.6850 before dropping back on weaker GDP numbers falling initially to the 0.6840 area and then running again after a short period to touch through the 0.6830 area and holding through to midsession before falling again through to the grey hours testing to its lows around the 0.6815 level before London moved in and started a strong steady rally through deep into the NYK however, once London left the scene the market stopped pushing at the 0.6855 area and the highs for the day, a long run to the close holding around the 0.6850 areas.
  • EUR: Holding quietly around the opening 1.1080 areas the market dipped eventually through the level for the run to the grey hours testing only to the 1.1075 areas for the run into the London session rising a little to test back through the opening level before dropping quickly back as the GBP broke higher forcing EURGBP through the 0.8500 level to trigger some stops, eventually toughing a little through the 1.1070 areas the market moved into the NYK session pushing steadily higher as the Euro tried to play catch up to the with the market initially failing the 1.1100 level before spiking through nearly an hour late and immediately starting a drop through to the opening levels and although the market with a steady recovery from the lows again to finish almost unchanged.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       AiG Performance of Service Index (NOV) A 53.7 | P 54.2

AUD       GDP YoY (3Q) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.6%

AUD       GDP QoQ (3Q) A 0.4% | C 0.5% | P 0.6%

CNY        Caixin China PMI Composite (NOV) A 53.2 | P 52.0

CNY        Caixin China PMI Services (NOV) A 53.5 | C 51.2 | P 51.1

USD       MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 29) A -9.2% | P 1.5%

USD       ADP Employment Change (NOV) A 67k | C 140k | P 125k

CAD       BoC Rate Decision (DEC 4) A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.75%

USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (NOV) A 53.9 | C 54.5 | P 54.7

USD       DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (NOV 29) A -4856k |-1486k | P 1572k

NZD       RBNZ Announces Bank Capital Review Decisions

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.