Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.759 | EURUSD 1.11042 | AUDUSD 0.68324 | NZDUSD 0.65449 | USDCAD 1.31749 | USDCHF 0.9872 | GBPUSD 1.31595 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11090 | 1.11033
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.784 | 108.653
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31645 | 1.31548
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98730 | 0.98691
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68436 | 0.68297
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31861 | 1.3176
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.65610 | 0.65416
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09669 | 1.09581
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84430 | 0.84382
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 120.782 | 120.659
For Today
- GBP: NFP day saw very limited movement for Cable and the market held around the 1.3160 opening levels through to the grey hours, topside offers into the sentimental levels and likely to continue slowing gains for the moment however, each push through the figure will see weak stops and the market struggling once beyond the 50-60 level and into the next big figure until 1.3400 comes into view and stronger offers, downside bids light through to the 1.3100 level with late comers possibly moving up into the area, a push through will see weak stops appearing on a move through the 1.3050 area and better bids then reappearing into the 1.3020-00 area before stronger stops start to appear.
- JPY: Slow drift from the opening initially testing through towards the 108.65 area before recovering from the opening in Tokyo to make the highs just short of the 108.80 level before again drifting slowly lower through to the grey hours, Topside offers strong through the 109.80-110.00 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening up only too the 110.50 areas with likely congestion then kicking in to slow the ascent any further or at least limit it in all likelihood, downside bids light through to the 108.50 level with some congestion around the level and likely to continue through to the stronger 108.00 area limited stops through the level and then further congestion likely to reappear through to the 107.50 areas and stronger bids thereafter.
- AUD: Slow rise more effected by the strength in the JPY than anything else and the market slowly lifting from the 0.6830 area to push towards the 0.6845 area into the grey hours, Topside congestion limited around the 0.6850 area then increasing on any test through to the 0.6880-0.6900 areas with strong offers likely to be mixed with light stops and only once the market pushes through the 0.6830 area will the stops count and force the market into the usually congested areas around the 0.6850 and stronger offers thereafter. Downside bids light through to the 0.6750 area with some strong congestion through the area and increasing as the market pushes for the 0.6720-0.6700 levels with any weak stops likely to be buried below the 0.6680 level however, a push through to the 0.6670-60 area is likely to see strong stops appearing from the break out crowd and the market vulnerable to a deeper move.
- EUR: Another quiet range for the Euro with the market holding around the 1.1105 level through to the grey hours and barely breaking a 5 pip range, Downside weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 1.0950 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.
Overnight News
JPY:
FinMin says BoJ’s low rate policy not behind megabanks fee move
Firms back tighter foreign ownership reporting rules – Poll
CNY:
PBoC injects 300b Yuan via one-year medium term loans, keeps rate unchanged
NZD/AUD:
Australian banks need extra NZD13b to meet tougher NZ capital rules
NZD:
Bascand says economy looks close to turning point
Bascand: Fiscal stimulus could boost growth next year
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Construction Index (NOV) A 40.0 | P 43.9
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings YoY (OCT) A 0.5% | C 0.2% | P 0.5%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Overall Household Spending YoY (OCT) A -5.1% | C -3.2% | P 9.5%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Real Cash Earnings YoY (OCT) A 0.1% | C -0.3% | P 0.2%
0700Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production n.s.a./w.d.a. C -3.6% | P -4.3%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment (NOV) C 10.0k | P -1.8k
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate (NOV) C 5.5% | P 5.5%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Full Time Employment Change (NOV) C 10.0k | P -16.1k
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY (NOV) C 4.5% | P 4.4%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (NOV) C 183k | P 128k
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate (NOV) C 3.6% | P 3.6%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings YoY (NOV) C 3.0% | P 3.0%
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Hours all Employees (NOV) C 34.4 | P 34.4
1330Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Private Payrolls (NOV) C 179k | P 131k
1500Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Mich. Sentiment (DEC P) C 97.0 | P 96.8
1800Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Baker Hughes US Rig Count (DEC 6) C 797 | P 802
2000Â Â Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Credit (OCT) C 16.000b | P 9.513b
Harry Hindsight
Â
- GBP: A slow rise from the opening in Asia moving from the 1.3105 area to push to the 1.3110 level for the move into Tokyo then for a short period holding around the level before moving up to look at the 1.3120 areas, the move through to the grey hours saw the market drifting back to the opening levels before jumping quickly higher as early London moved in to test to the 1.3140 areas to range around the level through into the NYK session before pushing off the 1.3130 area for a quick move through the 1.3150 level struggling for a short period before eventually pushing through to range around the 1.3160 area through to the close peaking just beyond the 1.3165 area.
- JPY: A quiet rangy start for the USDJPY opening around the 109.85 levels and testing back to the 108.80 level before rising to push lightly through the 108.90 area to peak just above on a couple of occasions before drifting through to the grey hours to test below the 108.80 areas, the move into the grey hours to start a slow steady rise to make the highs of the day and just falling short of the 109.00 level, highs made the move through to the NYK session saw the rally finished with and s allow drift through to the 108.85 level triggering some weak stops bouncing then after a brief lull dropping back again through to make the lows into the London close around the 108.65 level to finish the day around the 108.75 level.
- AUD: A light move higher before the release of weaker Trade balance numbers adding to weak retail sales seeing the Oz dropping back from the early highs around the 0.6855 area to the 0.6835 level and a weak range through to the London session, London were slow sellers and tested through to the 0.6820 areas in a long drawn out move if somewhat limited, the end of the London session saw some limited buying through to the 0.6835 area and then a long drawn out run to the close holding just below the level.
- EUR: A slow steady rise through the session opening around the 1.1080 level and generally ignoring the Eurozone numbers to trade through London pushing through the 1.1090 level basing along the line through to London close, with London gone the market stepped up a little more and pushed lightly through the 1.1100 level struggling with the offers through to the end of the session and never really testing the 1.1110 level.
Â
Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (OCT) A 4502m | C 6500m | P 7180m
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales MoM (OCT) A 0.0% | C 0.3% | P 0.2%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders n.s.a. YoY (OCT) A -5.5% | C -4.7% | P -5.4%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Markit Germany Construction PMI (NOV) A 52.2 | P 51.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Government Expenditure QoQ (3Q) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP s.a. YoY (3Q F) A 1.2% | C 1.2% | P 1.2%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales YoY (OCT) A 1.4% | C 2.2% | P 3.1%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Continuing Claims (NOV 23) A 1693k | C 1660k | P 1640k | R 1642k
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 30) A 203k | C 215k | P 213k
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (OCT) A -47.2b | C -48.9b | P 52.5b | R 51.1b
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders (OCT F) A 0.5% | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders (OCT) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P -0.6% | R -0.8%
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.