Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.559 | EURUSD 1.11135 | AUDUSD 0.68539 | NZDUSD 0.65752 | USDCAD 1.31154 | USDCHF 0.98036 | GBPUSD 1.30784 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.11323 | 1.11128

USDJPY                109.677 | 109.514

GBPUSD              1.30904 | 1.30741

USDCHF               0.98097 | 0.97976

AUDUSD             0.68810 | 0.68493

USDCAD              1.31186 | 1.31114

NZDUSD              0.65964 | 0.65774

EURCHF               1.09047 | 1.0895

EURGBP              0.85071 | 0.84925

EURJPY                 121.987 | 121.70

 

For Today

  • GBP: A very quiet session for Cable with the market ranging between the 1.3080-90 level for the most part and moving through to close just off the 1.3080 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.3060 level where strong bids start to appear and a limited base for the market with weak stops through the level setting up the market to test the 1.3000 areas and back to the previous ranges before the election announcement and congestion building through the 1.2980 areas onwards with particular strength around the sentimental levels, Topside offers light through to the 1.3400 level with limited offers continuing through and increasing as the market then closes on the 1.3500 levels, so wide open for the moment.
  • JPY: opening quietly just above the 109.55 level the market tested through towards the 109.70 areas on the Tokyo fix before dropping back and holding around the opening level to the grey hours, Topside strong offers around 109.80-110.00 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening up only to the 110.50 areas with likely congestion then kicking in to slow the ascent any further or at least limit it in all likelihood, downside bids light through to the 108.50 level with some congestion around the level and likely to continue through to the stronger 108.00 area limited stops through the level and then further congestion likely to reappear through to the 107.50 areas and stronger bids thereafter.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.6855 level the market made a slight dip through the 0.6850 level before the release of the employment data saw the market spark up through the 0.6880 area dipping from the rally before starting a slow but steady push to the highs again for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers likely to be around the 0.6950 area with limited weakness through 0.6960 before stronger offers start to appear on any move through to the 0.6980-0.7020 levels, possible stops through the level and the market then limited to the 0.7050 area and congestion then increasing on any attempt to push to the 0.7080-0.7100 levels, downside bids limited through to the 69 cents level with weak stops likely to be increasing on any dip through the 0.6880 area and the downside then opening up again through to the 0.6750 levels.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1115 level and steadily rising once the market moved into the Tokyo session to test lightly through the 1.1130 area before holding quietly around the 1.1125 level to the grey hours, Topside offers through the 1.1200 with option plays likely through to the 1.1220 area and possible weak stops through level and opening up further gains however, congestion is likely to increase into the 1.1250 areas but finally testing into the stronger congestion from earlier in the year with offers likely to increase into the 1.1275-1.1300 levels. Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level with bids likely on any dips too the 1.1080 before stronger stops appear and the market again opening to weaker congestion on a test through to the 1.1000 level where stronger bids are likely to appear.

 

Overnight News

AUD:

Premier Gladys Berejiklian has declared a state of emergency in New South Wales ABC

CNY:

Chinese state investors extend help to Hengfeng Bank DJ

China state owned firms could see more defaults and fewer bailouts CNBC

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       GDP YoY (3Q) A 2.3% | C 2.3% | P 2.1%

NZD       GDP s.a. QoQ (3Q) A 0.7% | C 0.5% | P 0.5%

NZD       Trade Balance (NOV) A -753m | C -700m | P -1013m | R -1039m

NZD       Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (NOV) A -4816m | C -4730m | P -5037m

AUD       Employment Change (NOV) A 39.9k | C 15.0k | P -24.8k

AUD       Unemployment Rate (NOV) A 5.2% | C 5.3% | P 5.3%

AUD       Full Time Employment Change (NOV) A 4.2k | P -10.5k

JPY         BoJ 10yr Yield Target (DEC 19) A 0.0% | C 0.0% | P 0.0%

JPY         BoJ Rate Decision (DEC 19) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%

0930       GBP       Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY (NOV) C 2.0% | P 2.7%

1200       GBP       BoE Asset Purchase Target (DEC) C 435b | P 435b

1200       GBP       BoE Rate (DEC 19) C 0.75% | P 0.75%

1330       USD       Continuing Claims (DEC 7) C 1671k | P 1667k

1330       USD       Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 14) C 225k | P 252k

1330       USD       Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (DEC) C 8 | P 10.4

1500       USD       Existing Home Sales MoM (NOV) C -0.4% | P 1.9%

1500       USD       Leading Index (NOV) C 0.1% | P -0.1%

1900       MXN      Overnight Rate (DEC 19) C 7.25% | P 7.50%

2330       JPY         National CPI YoY (NOV) C 0.5% | P 0.2%

2330       JPY         National CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY (NOV) C 0.5% | P 0.4%

2330       JPY         National CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy YoY (NOV) C 0.7% | P 0.7%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A slight rise through the early part of the session to set the days highs around the 1.3130 level before dropping back as early Tokyo moved in to dip into the opening in Tokyo around the 1.3110 levels, pausing for a short period before dipping again and testing through to the 1.3075 areas to make the early lows and a slow recovery through the to the grey hours with the market holding around the 1.3100 level, a whippy opening into the London session with the market testing back through the 1.3125 levels and the opening level before dropping quickly back to test the lows again, and then chopping around the 1.3100 levels again through into the NYK session, NYK opening chased the market to the lows of the day testing the 1.3060 level and then a steady range through to the close gradually tightening the range to finish the day around the 1.3080 areas.
  • JPY: Opening around the 109.50 level early buying through into the Tokyo fix saw the market testing through the 109.55 level before dropping back and then holding in a tight range around the 109.45 area with a narrow range, the move through into the London session saw the market test the 109.40 level the low of the day before gradually rising through to the NYK session to push lightly above the 109.60 level however, the level remained broadly intact through to the close.
  • AUD: A very quiet range for the Oz with the market opening around the 0.6850 level and remaining broadly around that level with early buying unable to push through to the 0.6860 level and drifting more towards the 0.6840 level the low into the London opening, London steadily pushed towards the 0.6860 area however, the push through to make the highs didn’t happen until the NYK session moved in trading to just below the 0.6865 level before holding back to hold around the opening levels.
  • EUR: Making early highs for the day around the 1.1155 level the market moved into the Tokyo session slowly slipping lower through to the 1.1130 level to hold through to the grey hours and into London before again starting a slide, the market eventually tested through into the NYK session to touch the 1.1110 level and base there with a tight range just below the 1.1120 to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Current Account Gross Domestic Product Ratio YTD (3Q) A -3.2% | C -3.4% | P -3.4%

AUD       Westpac Leading Index MoM (NOV) A -0.009% | P -0.07%

JPY         Trade Balance (NOV) A -82.1b | C -350b | P 17.3b

EUR        ECB President Lagarde speaks in Frankfurt

EUR        German IFO Business Climate (DEC) A 96.3 | C 95.5 | P 95.0 | R 95.1

EUR        German IFO Current Assessment (DEC) A 98.8 | C 98.1 | P 97.9 | R 98.0

EUR        German IFO Expectations (DEC) A 93.8 | C 93.0 | P 92.1 | R 92.3

GBP       CPI YoY (NOV) A 1.5% | C 1.4% | P 1.5%

GBP       Core CPI YoY (NOV) A 1.7% | C 1.7% | P 1.7%

GBP       CPIH YoY (NOV) A 1.5% | C 1.5% | P 1.5%

GBP       CPI MoM (NOV) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P -0.2%

GBP       House Price Index YoY (OCT) A 0.7% | P 1.3%

EUR        Eurozone CPI YoY (NOV F) A 1.0% | C 1.0% | P 0.7%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Core YoY (NOV F) A 1.3% | C 1.3% | P 1.3%

USD       MBA Mortgage applications (DEC 13) A -5.0% | P 3.8%

CAD       CPI YoY (NOV) A 2.2% | P 1.9%

CAD       CPI n.s.a. MoM (NOV) A -0.1% | P 0.3%

USD       DoE US Crude Oil Inventories (DEC 13) A -1085k | P 822k

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.