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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: A slow day as you’d expect with the Cable holding through the early part of the session around the 1.3120 level and thrusting quickly above the 1.3130 level to peak around the 1.3136 area before drifting through to the grey hours to hold the opening levels, Topside congestion through to the 1.3200 level with stronger offers around the figure area before opening up to further buying on a push through the 1.3220 area and possible weak stops with limited offers through to the sentimental 1.3250 and stronger again into 1.3300. Downside bids light through to the 1.3050 level then increasing congestion likely through to the 1.3000, possible weak stops through the level however, congestion likely to absorb the stops and congestion through to the 1.2900 level in varying sizes, particularly into the strong 1.2900 level.
• JPY: Holding quietly through into the Tokyo Holiday session the market dropped early through to the 108.65 level as year end USD selling continued, having traded a little through the low the market held the area for a slow move through to the grey hours, downside weak stops on a dip through the 108.80 areas with congestion likely to absorb the stops and the market bids increasing around the 108.50, any push below the 108.30 level is likely to see strong selling pushing for the 108.00 area however, bids are likely to be stronger and a limited market could see a quiet day. Topside offers increasing on a move through the 109.70 level through into the 110.00 level strong stops through the 110.20 level however, for the moment the topside is likely to be fairly strong.
• AUD: The Oz pushed to its highs steadily in a very tight range overall, with the market opening around the 0.6995 area and rising slowly to touch just above the 0.7005 levels before holding steadily through to the grey hours around the level. Topside strong congestion likely to continue through to the 0.7050 area with some light stops possible however, above the level the market is likely to thicken in offers and a real struggle for the moment to test to the 71 cents levels. Downside bids light through to the 0.6900 level with weak stops through the level and opening the market to further tests lower through to 0.6850/0.6800.
• EUR: A minor push from the 1.1200 level to test to the 1.1215 level before dropping back again to hold quietly just above the figure level, Topside offers continue through to the 1.1220 area with weak stops likely in the area however, once the stops are out of the way congestion is likely to continue in strength and increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.1300 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level and bids are still likely to be building with weak stops limited with congestion likely to move through to the 1.1050 level and increasing on a dip to the 1.1020 areas.

Overnight News
GBP:
Britain says will raise minimum wage by more than 6% in 2020
USD/CNY:
US/China trade deal signing within week or so – White House adviser
Initial US/China deal has major hold: Beijing’s massive business subsidies – WAP
KRW:
N. Korea’s Kim Urges positive and offensive security measure ahead of nuclear talks deadline
AUD:
Oz rally won’t last as wildfires sap economy – BBG
Fires force thousands onto beaches as Australia crisis worsens – BBG
The bushfires are now creating thunderstorms that can start more fires – AFR

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
CNY: Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A 50.2 | C 50.1 | P 50.2
CNY Composite PMI (DEC) A 53.4 | P 53.7
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI A 53.5 | C 54.2 |P 54.4
EUR BoI to release 3Q Credit Conditions and risk
1400 USD House Price Index MoM (OCT) C 0.4% | P 0.6%
1400 USD S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA(OCT) C 0.3% | P 0.4%
1400 USD S&P Case/Shiller Composite-20 YoY (OCT) C 2.1% | P 2.1%
1400 USD S&P Case/Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (OCT) P 3.2%
1500 USD Consumer Confidence Index (DEC) C 128.2 | P 125.5
1500 USD Conf. Board Present Situation P 166.9

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Opening slightly better the market dipped from the opening to test below the 1.3070 level before starting a steady rise through into the Tokyo session testing the 1.3100 levels and although slowing the rise continued into midsession testing to the 1.3125 level and finding sufficient offers to thwart any further rise through to deep into the London session as USD weakness continued, the move into the NYK session saw the topside break through to the 1.3150 level but volumes were limited and the market chopped around a little before dipping back to the 1.3100 level late into the session and finishing the day just above the level.
• JPY: The USDJPY opened on its highs before moving into the Tokyo session testing through the 109.35 level and dipping through to the 109.10 area and basing along the line through to the NYK session before USD selling restarted and saw the USDJPY push through the 109.00 level and dipping to the 108.80 area for form a base line through to the close.
• AUD: Testing a little lower from the opening around the 0.6985 level the bank holiday Tokyo session saw the Oz rising steadily through to the 0.6990 level and then eventually pushing through to test towards the 0.7000 level before dipping back to the opening levels for several hours of narrow trading around the 0.6990 level holding deep into the London session before again slowly rising to threaten the 0.7000 level, NYK lightly pushed through the level before running to the close just below the figure area.
• EUR: Rising from the opening slowly through the early part of the session the rally continued steadily on the push through to early Tokyo to test to the 1.1210 level before holding quietly around the 1.1200 level through deep into the NYK session before dipping back a little to the 1.1180 level, a weaker USD saw the Euro rising again, struggling initially with the 1.1210 area again the market managed to push eventually through to the 1.1220 level late in the session before slowly dipping back to the 1.1200 are for the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
CHF KOF Leading Indicator (DEC) A 95.4 | C 94.5 | P 93.0
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (NOV) A 43700 | C 41200 | P 41219
USD Advance Goods Trade Balance (NOV) A -63.2b | C -68.8b | P -66.5b
USD Wholesale Inventories MoM (NOV) A 0.0% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (DEC) A 48.9 | C 48.0 | P 46.3
USD Pending Home Sales YoY (NOV) A 5.6% | C 7.4% | P 3.9%

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