Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.669 | EURUSD 1.12117 | AUDUSD 0.70167 | NZDUSD 0.67372 | USDCAD 1.29912 | USDCHF 0.96731 | GBPUSD 1.32602 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.12243 | 1.1201

USDJPY                108.802 | 108.588

GBPUSD              1.32647 | 1.32026

USDCHF               0.97027 | 0.96607

AUDUSD             0.70195 | 0.69959

USDCAD              1.29950 | 1.29707

NZDUSD              0.67390 | 0.67143

EURCHF               1.08685 | 1.08445

EURGBP              0.84901 | 0.84581

EURJPY                 122.021 | 121.789

 

For Today

  • GBP: Quiet opening with the market a little lower around the 1.3250 area, while the early Tokyo session saw a limited attempt higher testing just above the 1.3265 area and filling the gap on the charts, the move into the mid-Tokyo session saw the market drop back to test towards the 1.3200 level for the move into the grey hours, Topside congestion through to the 1.3300 level with stronger offers around the figure area before opening up to further buying on a push through the 1.3320 area and possible weak stops with limited offers through to the sentimental 1.3350  and stronger again towards 1.3400. Downside bids light through to the 1.3050 level then increasing congestion likely through to the 1.3000, possible weak stops through the level however, congestion likely to absorb the stops and congestion through to the 1.2900 level in varying sizes, particularly into the strong 1.2900 level.
  • JPY: Choppy opening with the market lifting off the 108.60 area to test above 108.75 before dipping back to trade around the level into the Tokyo session, A dip back to the 108.65 level saw the end of the choppy session and the market slowly rose through to the grey hours to push again above the 108.75 level. downside weak stops on a dip through the 108.40 areas with congestion likely to absorb the stops and the market bids increasing around the 108.30 level is likely to see strong selling pushing for the 108.00 area however, bids are likely to be stronger and a limited market could see a quiet day. Topside offers increasing on a move through the 109.70 level through into the 110.00 level strong stops through the 110.20 level however, for the moment the topside is likely to be fairly strong.
  • AUD: Very limited movement for the Oz with the market spiking early in the session to test towards the 0.7025 level before dropping back to probe just below the 0.7010 area and holding for several hours just below the 0.7020 area before seeing some steady selling through to the 70 cents level for the move into the grey hours, Topside strong congestion likely to continue through to the 0.7050 area with some light stops possible however, above the level the market is likely to thicken in offers and a real struggle for the moment to test to the 71 cents levels. Downside bids light through to the 0.6900 level with weak stops through the level and opening the market to further tests lower through to 0.6850/0.6800.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1210 area the market slowly pushed through to the 1.1225 area before slowly drifting in the second half of the session to test to the 1.1200 areas for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers continue through to the 1.1220 area with weak stops likely in the area however, once the stops are out of the way congestion is likely to continue in strength and increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.1300 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level and bids are still likely to be building with weak stops limited with congestion likely to move through to the 1.1050 level and increasing on a dip to the 1.1020 areas.

 

Overnight News

USD/CNY:

China will be punching bag in US Presidential election – Nikkei

Trump and Democratic rival can compete to see who is tougher on Beijing – Nikkei

GBP:

Economists predict little change for UK growth in 2020 – FT

The five known unknowns for Brexit in 2020 – TEL

EUR/GBP:

Disorderly Brexit is still likely, ING’s Brzeski says – BBG

USD:

Millions of working-class Americans to get more money as 50 states and Cities raise minimum wage – IND

KRW:

UN Secretary Gen. deeply concerned N. Korea said it could resume weapons testing – HAA

  1. Korea leader Kim, US will suffer helplessly if it continues to delay – RTRs

CNY:

China ramps up credit support to aid economic growth in 2020 – BBG

AUD:

CBA Australia Dec. Manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs. 49.9 in NOV

Australia home prices notch up biggest 3 month gain in a decade – BBG

USD/THB:

US mulls listing Thailand as currency manipulator – Bangkok Post

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

CNY        Caixin China PMI Manufacturing A 51.5 | C 51.6 | P 51.8

EUR        German Retail Sales YoY (NOV) C 1.1% | P 1.4%

1330       USD       Continuing Claims (DEC 21) P 1719k

1330       USD       Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 28) C 222k | P 222k

1430       CAD       Canadian Manufacturing PMI (DEC) P 51.4

1530       MXN      Markit Mexico PMI Manufacturing (DEC) P 48.0

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A steady rise into early Tokyo to push through to the 1.3135 areas before topping out and slowly drifting through the session to test to the lows just above the 1.3110 level and into the London session, raising minimum wages seemed to raise optimism and the Cable started a steady climb through the London session to push to the 1.3200 level on the move into the NYK session and after a few hours of trading around the level pushed through to the 1.3250 level steadily and triggered weak stops on a move through the level to quickly test the 1.3280 level before steadily drifting off to the 1.3235 level a lack of interest and the run to the end of the session saw the market recover into the 1.3260’s.
  • JPY: Opening around the 108.90 areas the USDJPY slipped from the opening to test into the Tokyo session holding just below the opening and then dipped into the Tokyo session to test to the 108.65 areas and base along the line into the London session before breaking through for a steady move through to the 108.50 level, the market held around the level with a minor dip into the mid 108.40’s before quickly testing higher once NYK opened pushing quickly through into the 108.70’s in a couple of sharp moves before steadying down and finishing the day around the 108.65 level.
  • AUD: A quiet session for the Oz with the market slowly lifting from the opening 0.6995 area and pushing through into the London session testing the 0.7010 area, the market held quietly through into the NYK session before renewing the test of the topside pushing gradually through to the 0.7030 level before drifting to the close holding around the 0.7015 areas.
  • EUR: A slow range through much of the day with the Asian session opening around the 1.1200 level and based along the line into the London session with one slow test to the 1.1215 area before entering London, London were slow buyers and extended the highs with the push into NYK seeing the 1.1240 areas before drifting back to hold around the 1.1215 area for the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

CNY:      Manufacturing PMI (DEC) A 50.2 | C 50.1 | P 50.2

CNY        Composite PMI (DEC) A 53.4 | P 53.7

CNY        Non-Manufacturing PMI A 53.5 | C 54.2 |P 54.4

EUR        BoI to release 3Q Credit Conditions and risk

USD       House Price Index MoM (OCT) A 0.2% | C 0.4% | P 0.6% | R 0.7%

USD       S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA(OCT) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P 0.4%

USD       S&P Case/Shiller Composite-20 YoY (OCT) A 2.2% | C 2.1% | P 2.1%

USD       S&P Case/Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (OCT) A 3.3% | P 3.2%

USD       Consumer Confidence Index (DEC) A 126.5 | C 128.2 | P 125.5 | R 126.8

USD       Conf. Board Present Situation A 170 | P 166.9 | R 166.6

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.