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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: A very quiet session with the market holding in a narrow range around the 1.3175 level, Downside bids into congestion to the 1.3050 level and stronger bids into 1.3000 with the market then opening to a deeper move. Topside offers light through to the 1.3200 level with some limited offers through to the 1.3220 area with possible light stops on a move through, with stronger offers likely to increase on a test through to the 1.3300 level with stops above.
• JPY: A limited rise through the Asian session pushing from the low opening around the 108.35 area and testing through to the 108.50 area for the move into the grey hours and limited news for the day. Downside stops likely on a move through the 107.80 area and the market then open to the 107.50 level with some congestion and an old trendline suggesting some support and better bids congested below through to the 107.00 level, Topside offers likely to be weak through to the 109.00 level before stronger offers start to appear with strong offers on any push through the 109.50 level.
• AUD: A quiet range through the session with the market holding a tight range with future confidence numbers a worrying set of numbers, the market opened around the highs and dipped slowly from the 0.6940 area and holding just below the 0.6930 area through into the grey hours, Topside offers from the 0.7000 area through to 0.7020 where strong offers are likely to appear and while that topside should see weak stops the offers are likely to absorb any buying and continue through to the 0.7060 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.6920 area with stronger bids possible however, a push through the 0.6880 level will see strong stops appearing and the downside open to the stronger 0.6850 areas and congestive bids likely to support the market for the short term.
• EUR: Opening on a steady drift back through the 1.1160 level only to gap a little higher on a move through into the Tokyo session to push to only just below the 1.1170 area for a narrow range through into the grey hours, Topside offers continue through to the 1.1220 area with weak stops likely in the area however, once the stops are out of the way congestion is likely to continue in strength and increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.1300 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level and bids are still likely to be building with weak stops limited with congestion likely to move through to the 1.1050 level and increasing on a dip to the 1.1020 areas.

Overnight News
USD:
GOP Support for constraining Trump on Iran fades in wake of Soleimani killing -WPT
IRR/USD:
Khamenei wants to put Iran’s stamp on reprisal for US killing of top general – NYT
AUD:
ANZ DEC Job Advertisements fall 6.7% MoM
ANZ weekly consumer confidence falls 1.7% to 106.2
Sub-indices 1yr ahead 78.7 down 12.9 and 5yr 90.6 down 8.1
GBP:
Govt Stands down no deal Brexit planning despite PM Election pledge – SKY
CNY:
A mysterious virus is making China (and the rest of Asia) nervous – CNN

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPY Loans and Discounts Corp YoY (NOV) A 2.02% | P 2.24%
JPY Monetary Base YoY (DEC) A 3.2% | P 3.3%
JPY Monetary Base End of period (DEC) A 518.2t | P 517.3t
GBP Parliament returns from recess
0730 CHF CPI EU Harmonized YoY (DEC) C -0.2% | P -0.3%
0730 CHF CPI YoY (DEC) C 0.0% | P -0.1%
0730 CHF CPI Core YoY (DEC) C 0.4% | P 0.4%
0830 EUR Markit Germany Construction PMI (DEC) P 52.5
1000 EUR Eurozone CPI Core YoY (DEC P) C 1.3% | P 1.3%
1000 EUR Eurozone CPI Index Estimate YoY (DEC) C 1.3% | P 1.3%
1000 EUR Eurozone CPI MoM (DEC P) C 0.3% | P -0.3%
1000 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales YoY (NOV) C 1.5% | P 1.4%
1330 USD Trade Balance (NOV) C -43.9b | P 47.2b
1500 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (DEC) C 54.5 | P 53.9
1500 USD Durable Goods Orders (NOV 7) C -2.0% | P -2.0%
1500 USD Factory Orders (NOV) C -0.7% | P 0.3%
2130 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (DEC) P 40
2330 JPY Labour Cash Earnings YoY (NOV) C -0.2% | P 0.5%
2330 JPY Real Cash Earnings YoY (NOV) C -0.8% | P 0.1%

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Nervous but limited range through the Asian session rising from the early lows around the 1.3065 level to test through to the 1.3090 area and then drifting through to the grey hours to test the lows again, the London open saw the lows extended a little before moving off the low to push steadily through to the 1.3175 level on a long run before holding for a short period in the area before slipping back and holding in a tight range around the 1.3135-50 areas into NYK, the run to the London close saw the market again pushing towards the highs before drifting around the 1.3160 level to the close.
• JPY: USDJPY opened lower around the 107.90 level and a limited attempt to push through to the potential stops below the 107.80 areas only to fail and bounce off the level on the move into the early pre-Tokyo session testing through to the 108.10 area and the Friday closing area to close the gap on the charts, the run through Tokyo saw the market holding in a tight range around the 108.00 level before a limited push through to the 108.20 areas on the opening in London before dropping back to the figure level again, the move through to the NYK session saw a steady rise towards the 108.20 levels before holding through to late in the session before pushing quickly through the 108.20 level and testing to the 108.40 level to find limited offers and again slowed on its push to test the 108.50 level and a slow steady drift to the close.
• AUD: A limited day with the Oz unable to break in either direction, opening around the 0.6940 level a little lower than Fridays close and running to the low 0.6930 area before catching some buying as early Tokyo moved into the market the run higher through was curtailed to the low 0.6950’s before returning to the 0.6940 where the market centred through to the London session, the move into the NYK session saw some selling moving through and testing to the lows in early trading and testing to the 0.6925 area before slowly rising to the close just off the opening level.
• EUR: A quiet Asian session with the market pinned within a 10 pip range opening around the 1.1170 level the market was unable to push to far higher limited by the 1.1180 level and then drifting through the open on the push into the grey hours dipping on the London opening and continuing on a steady run through to the 1.1125 areas to make the lows for the day, the run to the NYK session saw the market reversing the move and trading slowly higher through to the end of the London session pushing to the 1.1180 level to make the highs before halting and slipping through to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (DEC) A 48.3 | P 48.1
CNY Caixin China PMI Composite (DEC) A 52.6 | P 53.2
CNY Caixin China PMI Services (DEC) A 52.5 | C 53.2 | P 53.5
EUR German Retail Sales YoY (NOV) A 2.8% | C 1.0% | P 0.8%

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