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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: A slight rise through to the Tokyo session testing the 1.3150 level before through the session to fall back to just below the 1.3130 level for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids building into the 1.3000 levels with limited congestion from current levels through to there weak stops through the level are likely to run into congestion on a dip to the 1.2950 area with stronger bids likely in that area, Topside congestion through to the 1.3200 levels with strong offers likely in that area with weak stops on a push through the 1.3220 area and opening the market to a run to the 1.3300 level and stronger offers reappearing in the area.
• JPY: Opening around the 109.95 area the market opened to a quick run at stop losses taking the market quickly through to the 109.65 area before finding some support on the move into the Tokyo session, fixing supply sent the market lower again and the market held around the 109.60 area through to the run to the grey hours before dipping again to make the lows around the 109.55 level, Topside congestion through the 110.50 level and likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 111.80 area where stronger offers start to appear leading into stronger congestion on any push to the 112.00 level, downside bids light through to the 109.00 areas with congestion likely to appear once through the 108.80 level and weak stops with the congestion likely to increase on any push through the 108.50 areas through to 108.00.
• AUD: A slight drift from the opening saw the market moving into the Tokyo session dipping just below the 0.6840 level before the release of the employment numbers and a surprise dip in unemployment sent the Oz rising quickly through to just below the 0.6880 areas before stabilising, dipping slightly and slowly pushing to the same level before drifting lower through the session to test through to the 0.6860 areas for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 0.6920 area with possible weak stops through the level before congestion appears around the 0.6940-60 areas and increasing offers once the level is cleared through to the 0.6980-0.7000 areas, downside bids a little stronger through to the 0.6800 level with stronger bids start to appear, weak stops through the 0.6780 areas however, the congestion then increases on any dip through to the 0.6750 levels.
• EUR: A slow rise pushing through to hold the 1.1095 areas with a spike on the release of the AUD numbers then a quick drop through to the 1.1080 level before holding in the 1.1085 areas through to the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.1060-40 levels with some weak stops likely on a dip through then stronger bids start to appear around the 1.1020 level increasing through to the 1.0980 area where stronger stops are likely to appear on a dip through with congestion limited through to the 1.0920 level. Topside offers into the 1.1100 area are likely to be light with stops through the 1.1120 level opening up only limited room with stronger offers appearing from the 1.1140 areas onwards.

Overnight News
CHF:
Maechler: SNB ready to intervene in FX Markets if needed
GBP:
Cornoavirus warning: More than 4,000 people could have killer disease, warn experts – Express
CNY:
China’s latest GDP growth figures reveal bad news for 2020 – Nikkei
Economy is slowing and nation cannot rely on another massive boost in credit – Nikkei
China quarantines entire city as Cornoavirus spreads fast – US Military news
China begins to shut as Coronavirus explodes – ABC
As families tell of Pneumonia like deaths in Wuhan, some wonder if China virus count is too low – WPT
Wuhan effectively quarantined,
Macau Cancels all lunar NY festivities – BBG
Wuhan Doctors see Cornoavirus cases may exceed 6000 – Caixin
China may offer TMLF at lower rate – Shanghai Securities
SGD:
Is Singapore’s perfect economy coming apart – Nikkei
Once hailed as a model of progress, poverty and nativist resentment are on the rise – Nikkei
NZD:
Net immigration estimates fall to 41.5k on revision
JPY:
Japan Dec. Exports fall 6.3% YoY est. -4.3%

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPY Trade Balance (DEC) A -152.5b | C -170.0b | P -82.1b
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations A 4.7% | P 4.0%
AUD Employment Changes (DEC) A 28.9k | C 11.0k | P 39.9k
AUD Unemployment Rate (DEC) A 5.1% | C 5.2% | P 5.2%
AUD Full Time Employment Change (DEC) A -0.3k | P 4.2k
JPY All Industry Activity Index MoM (NOV) A 0.9% | C 0.4% | P -4.3%
1200 MXN CPI Bi-Weekly CPI (JAN 15) C 0.24% | P 0.32%
1200 MXN CPI Bi-Weekly CPI YoY (JAN 15) C 3.16% | P 3.02%
1245 EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate C -0.50% | P -0.50%
1245 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility C 0.25% | P 0.25%
1245 EUR ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
1330 EUR Pres. Lagarde holds press Conference in Frankfurt
1330 USD Continuing Claims (JAN 11) C 1750k | P 1767k
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims C 215k | P 204k
1500 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (JAN A) C -7.8 | P -8.1
1500 USD Leading Index (DEC) C -0.2% | P 0.0%
1600 USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (JAN 17) P -2549k
2145 NZD CPI YoY (4Q) C 1.8% | P 1.5%
2145 NZD CPI QoQ (4Q) C 0.4 | P 0.7%
2200 AUD CBA PMI Composite (JAN P) P 49.6
2200 AUD CBA PMI Manufacturing (JAN P) P 4,.2
2200 AUD CBA PMI Services (JAN P) P 49.8
2330 JPY National CPI YoY (DEC) C 0.7% | P 0.5%
2330 JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food YoY (DEC) C 0.7% | P 0.5%
2330 JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY (DEC) C 0.9% | P 0.8%
2350 JPY BoJ Minutes of December Meeting (DEC)

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A steady range through the Asian session saw the market opening around the 1.3050 level and after a brief blip into the Tokyo opening drift through to make the lows around the 1.3035 level before starting a steady recovery into the grey lows to test the 1.3065 area before London opened and set it back towards the lows, by mid-morning the capitulation of the House of Lords saw the market rising quickly through to the NYK session to push beyond the 1.3100 level triggering some stops on a run to just above the 1.3150 level before holding steady in a range of 1.3125-45 through to the close.
• JPY: Rising from the opening steadily through to the 109.90 level too range deep into the Tokyo session before testing quickly through to the 110.10 level, while the USDJPY managed to hang on to the 110.00 level the market started to drift from the London session and held just below the level into the NYK session, the opening saw the market dip through to hold the opening levels around the 109.85 area and continued quietly through to the close.
• AUD: A steady range throughout the day, early sellers into the Tokyo session dipping through the 0.6830 level before recovering in a steady move to just above the 0.6840 areas and a slow drift through to the London session, Cables move saw the Oz pushing through steadily to the 0.6850 areas and holding the 0.6855 area into the NYK session before drifting back again to hold steady to the close around the 0.6840 level.
• EUR: Euro was limited in range with the first half of the day seeing the market holding around the 1.1080 area and the opening level testing through to the 1.1075 area before recovering and holding that range through to the London opening, limited selling saw the lows tested again however, the GBP rally helped the EUR through to the 1.1095 level but unable to threaten the 1.1100 levels before dropping back to the median again and into the NYK session, NYK were quick buyers pushing through to the highs of the day however, as with the last move it was unable to push through the 1.1100 areas hitting the high and dropping quickly lower to test the 1.1070 level for the low of the day, a brief pause saw the market again pushing back to the median and then holding above the 1.1090 level to the close

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