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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: Dipping from the opening levels to test to the 1.2995 area and holding quietly through to midsession before rising slowly back to the 1.3005 area opening and running out of steam in a very quiet session to range the 1.3000 level to the grey hours, Topside offers likely into the 1.3100 level with congestion then following through to the 1.3150 area, limited stops possible with congestion likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 1.3200 area with weak and breakout stops likely on a move through the 1.3220 area to open the market to the mid 1.32’s from the beginning of the year, Downside bids light back through the 1.3000 levels possible weak stops along the way however stronger congestion then appears on a dip through the 1.2950 level and increasing into the 1.2900 area.
• JPY: Dipping to the 109.80 level from the opening the market held quietly through into the Tokyo session and supply for the Fix saw another dip to test too the 109.70 area, and another pause, the last move lower saw the low set around the 109.65 area before slowly rising back to the 108.75 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers likely to be limited with weak stops on a push through the 110.20 area and opening up limited room through to the 110.50 and increasing resistance as the market approaches the 111.00 areas, downside bids light through to the 109.00 area with limited support and weak stops likely to be light for a move back to the stronger 108.50 area with good support likely to appear on any dips to the 108.00 levels.
• AUD: Slipping on the move through into the Tokyo session the market tested from the early 0.6716 area high the market pushed through to the 0.6690 area, small pause holding the level before dipping through to the 0.6685 area and slowly rising back through the 0.6690’s for the grey hours, downside bids cleared through to the 0.6680 level opening up a deeper move over a long period with bids likely to appear around the sentimental 00/50 areas, topside offers light through to the 0.6780 level with strong offers likely to increase into the 0.6800/20 area with weak stops appearing through the level and 0.6840-60 likely to be stronger.
• EUR: USD buying on the new session saw the Euro lose its early highs once the Tokyo session opened dipping back from the 1.0838 area to test through to the 1.0825 area before recovering a little into the afternoon session to push back into the 1.0830’s for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.0800 area with likely strong stops on a test through the 1.0780 area and opening a deeper move through to the 1.0720 area with limited congestion along the way, Topside offers light through to the 1.0900 area with some stronger offers likely just beyond and stops appearing on a test through the 1.0920 level and congested offers through to the 1.1000 level increasing the closer you get.

Overnight News
NZD:
NZ economists agree with RBNZ on Limit to House price gains – BBG
NZ Estimated population growth slowest in six years
AUD:
RBA Board discussed case for easing, chose to hold given rates already very low
RBA: Remained prepared to ease policy further if needed
RBA: Reasonable to expect extended period of low rates will be required
RBA: Further rate cut could speed progress toward jobs and inflation target
RBA: But needed to be balanced with risks from yet lower rates including impact on savers
RBA: Risk easing could encourage more borrowing when home prices already rising strongly
RBA: To monitor developments carefully including in labour market
RBA: Noted AUD was near its lowest level since 2009
RBA Coronavirus new source of uncertainty for Global economy, too early to judge impact
RBA: Coronavirus a material risk to outlook for China economy and thus Australia
RBA: Economic drag from bushfires to be felt in Q4 and Q1, full recovery expected by year end
RBA: Outlook remained for Australian economy to improve due in part of housing pick up
RBA: Consumption a key uncertainty, rising housing prices and turnover should support
RBA: Acceleration in wage growth would be welcome, though no pick up seen over next two years
USD/CNY:
US weighs new move to limit China’s access to Chip tech – DJ
CNY:
China’s coffers are depleted just as virus spurs spending – BBG
EUR:
Bundesbank warns of Coronavirus hit to German exporters – BBG

Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD REINZ House Sales YoY (JAN) A 3.2% | P 12.3%
AUD RBA Minutes of Feb. Policy Meeting (FEB)
0930 GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (DEC) C 3.0% | P 3.2%
0930 GBP Claimant Count Rate (JAN) P 3.5%
0930 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (DEC) C 170k | P 208k
0930 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3mth (DEC) C 3.8% | P 3.8%
0930 GBP Jobless Claims Change (JAN) P 14.9k
0930 GBP Output Per Hour YoY (4Q P) P 0.1%
0930 GBP Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3m/YoY) (DEC) C 3.3% | P 3.4%
1000 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (FEB) P 25.6
1000 EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations C 22 | P 26.7
1000 EUR German ZEW Survey Current Situation C -10.0 | P -9.5
1500 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (FEB) C 75 | P 75
2100 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (DEC) P 22.9b
2330 AUD Westpac Leading Index MoM (JAN) P 0.1%
2350 JPY Machine Orders YoY (DEC) C -1.3% | P 5.3%
2350 JPY Trade Balance (JAN) C -1684.8b | P -152.5b

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Wide opening saw the market trade just below the 1.3040 level before steadily rising through to push through to the 1.3055 area before slipping back a little to hold quietly in the mid 1.3040’s through to the grey hours, steady selling through the grey hours saw the market move into the London opening testing the 1.3030 area before slowly rising through the early morning but unable to push beyond the early highs to slowly drift through to the NYK session holding the 1.3010 area and then a slow steady drift through the NYK bank holiday to test the 1.3000 level before holding quietly to the close just above the level.
• JPY: Opening slightly better around the 109.80 area the market managed to move a little higher before dipping into the Tokyo opening and setting the low for the day just above the 109.70 level and starting a slow steady rise through the day with no drama pushing through into deep into the bank holiday NYK session pushing just above the 109.95 area to make the highs and dipping into the final hour for the close just below the 109.90 level.
• AUD: Quiet session for the Oz with the market rising through to the 0.6730 area for the early part of the session and dipping a little into the Tokyo opening to test through to the 0.6715 area before recovering and then ranging quietly through to the grey hours, light buying through the grey hours to test just above the 0.6730 area and the high for the day, the rest of the session saw the market drifting slowly through to the lows of the day again into the close.
• EUR: 1.0840 area saw the market opening a little stronger before ranging quietly for the most part in the 1.0835-40 through to the London opening before finding some buyers to push through to the 1.0850 area before drifting a little to hold the 1.0845 areas through to the bank holiday NYK session with slow sellers testing through to the 1.0835 area and ranging around the level through to the close with a lazy test of the 1.0830 level into the London close, then holding through to the end of the session.

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