LMAX Exchange - unique vision for global FX

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
• GBP: A very quiet session with the Cable opening around the 1.3000 and holding through to the grey hours in a very tight range around that level, downside support through to the 1.2980 level and likely to weak stops on a move through with stronger congestion likely to move in around the 1.2950 level and increasing on any dip through to the 1.2900 level and strong stops on a push through the 1.2880-70 level for a slightly deeper move through towards the 1.2800 area. Topside offer light through to the 1.3050 level with congestion around the level and then thinning out through too 1.3080-1.3100 and thicker offers appearing likely tight around the figure level, with limited congestion from there to 1.3150.
• JPY: A slow rise through into the Tokyo session from the opening lows around the 109.85 area and pushing too the 109.95 level on the opening, Tokyo fix was reasonably matched and the market once through there saw a steady rise through to test through the 110.00 area and peaking around the 110.10 level before holding quietly through to the grey hours in the 110.05 area. Topside offers likely to be limited with weak stops on a push through the 110.20 area and opening up limited room through to the 110.50 and increasing resistance as the market approaches the 111.00 areas, downside bids light through to the 109.00 area with limited support and weak stops likely to be light for a move back to the stronger 108.50 area with good support likely to appear on any dips to the 108.00 levels.
• AUD: Limited range in quiet trading, opening around the 0.6885 area and slowly rising into the Tokyo session to test through to the 0.6895 area before dipping into Tokyo opening and through to the Tokyo fix making the low for the day around the 0.6684 level and a slow recovery with a test just above the figure level before holding quietly around the 0.6695 areas. Topside offers light through to the 0.6740-60 level with congestion building in the area and then weakness for a short distance through that level with stronger offers not expected until a push through to the 0.6780-0.6800 area with weak stops likely on a push through the 0.6820 level, stronger offers likely from there through to the 0.6900 area. downside bids cleared through to the 0.6680 level opening up a deeper move over a long period with bids likely to appear around the sentimental 00/50 areas
• EUR: A slow rise away from the 1.0790 level to push quietly into the Tokyo session to test through the 1.0800 level and to the 1.0804 area before slipping slowly lower for the move into the grey hours testing back into the low 1.0790’s. Downside bids still remain into the 1.0780 level however, much of the congestion is now cleared and a move through the level is likely to see weak stops opening a test through to the 1.0760-40 areas and likely further congestion and possibly increasing into the 1.0720-00-1.0680 level before stronger stops start to appear and opening a larger move lower.

Overnight News
AUD:
S&P sees Coronavirus cutting 0.5% from Australian 2020 growth
NZD:
RBNZ Orr: Economy and policy are in a good position especially employment and inflation
EUR:
EU to unveil plans to boost European firms, rein in US tech giants
USD/EUR:
Facebook faces tax court trial over Ireland offshore deal

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Quiet move through into the Tokyo session with a slight dip from the opening highs just short of the 1.3010 area and dipping through to the 1.2995 areas and basing around the level in quiet trading through to late in the session before pushing back above the 1.3000 level, pushing into the grey hours the market saw light selling before recovering from the 1.2988 area only to dip again on the move into the London opening dipping quickly on a downside stop loss hunt to test the 1.2970 area eventually pushing back to the 1.3000 just as quickly as the GBP data was released and after a pause continued through to the 1.3040 level forcing early shorts out of their positions, a slow rise through to the highs just short of the 1.3050 area and slowly drifted through into the US session holding quietly through to the end of the London session holding the 1.3020 area before attempting once another run to the topside failing for the second time and steadily running through to the 1.3000 level to hold quietly in a long run to the close.
• JPY: Opening just below the 109.90 area the market drifted through into the Tokyo session holding the 109.80 area and then slipping in two waves through to just below the 109.70 area to make the low around the 109.66 level and a slow rise to the 109.80 area and a quiet range around the 109.70-80 level through the early part of the London session with the NYK players entering and starting a slow move through into there session and breaking above the 109.90 level for the first time before dropping back into the 109.80-90 area to run to a quiet close.
• AUD: The Oz drifted through into the Tokyo session before quickening its move lower from the 0.6715 area, Tokyo saw the market moving through to hold around the 0.6690 level before pausing with a minor move through to the mid 0.6680’s before slowly rising for the move into the grey hours to hold just above the 0.6690 level, early London were slow sellers through to the 0.6675 area to make the lows of the day and the market stuttered along through into the NYK roughly holding the 0.6680-90 level, steady buying took the market into the upper 0.6690’s however, the run to the close saw the market drifting back into the 80’s for the close.
• EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro with the market opening around the days high and dipping from the 1.0840 level through into early morning in Tokyo testing into the 1.0820’s before recovering a little to hold the 1.0830 through into London, London did very little extending the lows a little however, NYK was more robust in its selling with the market grinding through the support and then dipping through to quickly test into the 1.0780’s testing towards the 1.0775 area before bouncing as the market failed to push through the 1.0780 area and then having recovered to the 1.0820 level spent the balance of the session drifting to the eventual close just above the 1.0790 level.

Yesterday’s Premiership results
NZD REINZ House Sales YoY (JAN) A 3.2% | P 12.3%
AUD RBA Minutes of Feb. Policy Meeting (FEB)
0930 GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (DEC) A 2.9% | C 3.0% | P 3.2%
0930 GBP Claimant Count Rate (JAN) A 3.4% | P 3.5%
0930 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (DEC) A 180k | C 170k | P 208k
0930 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3mth (DEC) A 3.8% | C 3.8% | P 3.8%
0930 GBP Jobless Claims Change (JAN) A 5.5k | P 14.9k | R 2.6k
0930 GBP Output Per Hour YoY (4Q P) A 0.3% | P 0.1%
0930 GBP Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3m/YoY) (DEC) A 3.2% | C 3.3% | P 3.4%
1000 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (FEB) A 10.4 | P 25.6
1000 EUR German ZEW Survey Expectations A 8.7 | C 22 | P 26.7
1000 EUR German ZEW Survey Current Situation A -15.7 | C -10.0 | P -9.5
1500 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (FEB) A 74 | C 75 | P 75
2100 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (DEC) A 85.6b | P 22.9b

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Group blog - FX industry thought leadership

Daily FX Market Commentary

LMAX Group blog - FX industry thought leadership

Sign up for Global FX Insights, the daily market commentary from LMAX Group