Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.784 | EURUSD 1.07006 | AUDUSD 0.58072 | NZDUSD 0.57062 | USDCAD 1.43354 | USDCHF 0.98566 | GBPUSD 1.16698 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT

 

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.07548 | 1.0636

USDJPY                111.276 | 109.80

GBPUSD               1.16979 | 1.15304

USDCHF               0.99007 | 0.98135

AUDUSD              0.58247 | 0.57028

NZDUSD               0.56846 | 0.55917

USDCAD               1.44839 | 1.4364

EURCHF               1.05471 | 1.05312

EURGBP               0.92529 | 0.91658

EURJPY                118.558 | 117.90

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Unchanged for the most part the market ran to the 1.1675 area to make the early highs before quickly dropping back before the Tokyo session testing the 1.1560 level and pushing in early Tokyo trading to dip through to the 1.1530 level to make the low, the official opening saw the market quickly rise to the 1.1650 level and choppy around a little for a couple of hours before again lifting off the 1.1590 area for a steady push through to the 1.1650 area on a long run to the grey hours, light offers through to the 1.1850 level with congestion forming in the area and likely to continue around the sentimental areas through to 1.2100 level with the possibility of stronger stops through the level and weak resistance giving rise to a possible short squeeze, downside bids into the 1.1550 level and likely to increase into the 1.1500  level and stronger bids on any dip  below the level towards 1.1450 and 1.1400 sentimental levels likely to provide significant bids until the market can break through the 1.1380 and the downside look vulnerable.
  • JPY: Early highs through the 111.20 level having opened around the 110.80 level became the early highs of the day as the market dipped away on the move into the Tokyo session initially testing the 110.30 level after pausing in the area for a couple of hours the market saw a brief recovery through to the 110.70 level before running lower again and pushing lightly to the 110.00 level and holding deep into the session before pushing through the level and holding through to the grey hours around the 109.80 level, Double top formation formed with congestion to the downside protecting the 109.50 level and the possibility for a deeper move through to the 108,00 area and possible better support
  • AUD: Similar pattern to the majors with the market rising from the opening to test lightly above the 0.5820 level peaking and then selling through to the early Tokyo testing through to the 0.5710 level, Chopping around through the early part of the day to range from the 0.5700  level to test to the early highs around the 0.5780 on the wide testing through to the lows of the day again before finding some stability ranging around the 0.5750 level  through to the grey hours and slowly pushing through to the 0.5770 level for the move into the grey hours, topside light congestion around the sentimental values with stronger offers into the 0.5850 level  initially any move through the level is likely to see weakness through to the 60 cents area before stronger offers appear and weak stops on a break of the 0.6020-30 level to quickly target 61 cent, downside bids light through to the 0.5600 levels with possibly some weak bids hanging around the area through to the 0.5550 level and stronger bids from therein,
  • EUR: Opening in line with Fridays close around the 1.0700 area the market dipped quickly in the first 30 mins through to the 1.0635 area before finding some stronger bids to slowly push through to the 1.0700 level into the Tokyo session, Tokyo after the recapture of the opening levels saw steady selling through the next couple of hours before USD went on the defensive and the Euro was free to push from the 1.0660 level to test to the highs around the 1.0735 area through to the grey hours, Downside 1.0350 level the talk of the town and close to the first days strong rise in 2000, Strong bids through 1.0600 with weak stops on a break to the 105.80 level and a quick test through to the 1.0500 level, topside offers light through to the 1.0800 level with the possibility of a short squeeze and stops through there.

 

Overnight News

 

USD:

No deal on vast Coronavirus stimulus bill as crunch time arrives on capitol hill – WPT

Democrats block senate stimulus bill after negotiations falter

Dire USD shortage shows world failed to fix key crisis flaw – BBG

Kashkari: Fed isn’t out of ammunition

Kashkari: Fed could potentially do more for corps, bonds, muni’s

NZD:

RBNZ to implement NZD30b asset purchase program –

RBNZ: Will buy bonds across a range of maturities

RBNZ: will buy bonds from secondary market, over 12 months

RBNZ: Program aims to support economy, keep bond yields low

RBNZ: Plans to buy NZD500m bonds this week

Ardern: Nation must prepare to go into self-isolation – BBG

AUD:

Australia closes Pubs, Restaurants, Casinos as infections soar – BBG

EUR:

Merkel in quarantine after Doctor tests positive for virus – AP

Central Banks:

Central banks intervene in FX market conditions, but not exchange rate levels

Revival of Fed’s CB swap lines helps address FX market illiquidity, but don’t expect FX level targeting

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

1500      EUR       Eurozone Consumer Confidence C -13 | P -6.6

2200      AUD       CBA Australia PMI Composite (MAR P) P 49.0

2200      AUD       CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (MAR P) 50.2

2200      AUD       CBA Australia PMI Services (MAR P) P 49.0

 

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

CNY:      1yr Loan Prime Rate (MAR) A 4.05% | C 3.95% | P 4.05%

CNY        5yr Loan Prime Rate (MAR) A 4.75% | C 4.7% | P 4.75%

NZD       Credit Card Spending YoY (FEB) A 2.5% | P 3.7%

0930       GBP       BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12mths (FEB) A 3.0% | P 3.1%

0930       GBP       Central Government NCR (FEB) A -2.5b | P -20.5b

0930       GBP       PSNB ex Banking Groups (FEB) A 0.3b | C 0.8b | P -9.8b | R -11.7b

0930       GBP       Public Finances (PSNCR) (FEB) A 1.38b | P -18.8b | R -19.11b

0930       GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (FEB) A -0.3b | C 0.7b | P -10.5b | R -12.4b

1230       CAD       Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A 0.4% | P 0.0%

1400       USD       Existing Home Sales MoM (FEB) A 6.5% | C 0.9% | P -1.3% | R -2.0%

1700       USD       Baker Hughes US Rig Count (MAR 20) A 772 | P 792

 

 

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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