Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.272 | EURUSD 1.0726 | AUDUSD 0.58258 | NZDUSD 0.57145 | USDCAD 1.45086 | USDCHF 0.98498 | GBPUSD 1.15436 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT

 

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.08219 | 1.07198

USDJPY                111.301 | 110.101

GBPUSD               1.16573 | 1.14979

USDCHF               0.98387 | 0.9784

AUDUSD              0.59453 | 0.58189

NZDUSD               0.58040 | 0.57003

USDCAD               1.45227 | 1.44051

EURCHF               1.05874 | 1.05643

EURGBP               0.93256 | 0.9267

EURJPY                119.416 | 118.838

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.1520 level and ranging a little to make the lows from the opening and the starting a steady tight channelled rise through to the 1.1650 level in early morning in Tokyo before quietly ranging just below the level to move into the grey hours around the 1.1630 area. light offers through to the 1.1850 level with congestion forming in the area and likely to continue around the sentimental areas through to 1.2100 level with the possibility of stronger stops through the level and weak resistance giving rise to a possible short squeeze, downside bids into the 1.1550 level and likely to increase into the 1.1500  level and stronger bids on any dip  below the level towards 1.1450 and 1.1400 sentimental levels likely to provide significant bids until the market can break through the 1.1380 and the downside look vulnerable.
  • JPY: USD selling through the session saw the USDPY trading from the highs around the 111.30 area to dip into the Tokyo session trading through to the 110.75 area and continuing into early morning before finding a base around the 110.10 level ranging in a 40 pip range initially the market began to narrow down into the grey hours to enter there around the 110.25 level, Double top formation formed with congestion to the downside protecting the 109.50 level and the possibility for a deeper move through to the 108,00 area and possible better support Topside offers increasing through the 111.50 level and likely weak stops on a break of the 111.70 area and opening a test of 112.00 before renewed resistance through to the 112.20 level and breakout stops appearing through to the 112.50 area.
  • AUD: A steady strong climb from the lows around the 0.5810 level to push in a tight channelled move through to just below the 0.5950 level with very little standing in the way of the USD selling until that point and a slow drift through to the grey hours dipping a little on the break to the 0.5900 level to test the 0.5890 level quickly for the move into the gre hours, topside light congestion around the sentimental values with stronger offers into the 0.5850 level  initially any move through the level is likely to see weakness through to the 60 cents area before stronger offers appear and weak stops on a break of the 0.6020-30 level to quickly target 61 cent, downside bids light through to the 0.5600 levels with possibly some weak bids hanging around the area through to the 0.5550 level and stronger bids from therein,
  • EUR: Opening in what is becoming more and more illiquid financial markets testing from the 1.0730 level through to the 1.0750 in the first hour of trading and then jumping from the Tokyo opening through to the 1.0825 level for the high before holding in an ever tightening range around the 1.0800 level before dipping into the final run for the grey hours to testy back to the 1.0775 level. Downside 1.0350 level the talk of the town and close to the first days strong rise in 2000, Strong bids through 1.0600 with weak stops on a break to the 105.80 level and a quick test through to the 1.0500 level, topside offers light through to the 1.0800 level with the possibility of a short squeeze and stops through there. Topside offers likely on the approaches to the 1.0900 area with possibly weak stops through the level and a quick test to the 1.1000 level open as a small short squeeze appears, however, once that is out of the way the sellers are likely to reappear and the downside remains vulnerable.

 

Overnight News

 

USD:

Trump: Sacrifices Americans making saving lives

Trump: Will use data cautiously to recommend new protocols

Trump: Senate needs to stop with partisan politics

How house Democrats stimulus plan compares to the Senate – Politico

AUD:

Queensland closing state border to non-essential travel – BBG

Australia Household sentiment and Services augur economic slump – BBG

EUR:

Spanish Soldier find bodies in retirement homes

CNY:

China’s factories work 24/7 to build ventilators for Milan, New York

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Composite (MAR P) A 40.7 | P 49.0

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (MAR P) A 50.1 | 50.2

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Services (MAR P) A 39.8 | P 49.0

JPY         Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (MAR P) A 44.8 | P 47.8

0830      EUR       Markit Germany Services PMI (MAR P) C 43 | P 52.5

0830      EUR       Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (MAR P) C 41.5 | P 50.7

0830      EUR       Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (MAR P) C 40 | P 48

0900      EUR       Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (MAR P) C 38.8 | P 51.6

0900      EUR       Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (MAR P) C 39.5 | P 49.2

0900      EUR       Markit Eurozone Services PMI (MAR P) C 39.8 | 52.6

0930      GBP        Markit PMI Manufacturing s.a. (MAR P) C 45 | P 51.7

0930      GBP        Markit/CiPS Composite PMI (MAR P) C 45.1 | P 53

0930      GBP        Markit/CiPS Services PMI (MAR P) C 45 | P 53.2

1200      MXN      Biweekly CPI (MAR 15) C 0.12% | P 0.47%

1200      MXN      Biweekly CPI YoY (MAR 15) C 3.68% | P 3.87%

1200      MXN      Biweekly Core CPI (MAR 15) C 0.18% | P 0.13%

1345      USD       Markit US Composite PMI (MAR P) P 49.6

1345      USD       Markit US Manufacturing PMI (MAR P) C 44 | P 50.7

1345      USD       Markit US Services PMI (MAR P) C 42 | P 49.4

1400      USD       New Home Sales MoM (FEB) C -1.8% | P 7.9%

2145      NZD       Trade Balance (FEB) C 550m | P -340m

2145      NZD       Trade Balance 12mth YTD (FEB) C -3418m | P -3866m

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening a touch stronger the Cable struggled with the 1.1650 area drifting back to the 1.1600 level to make the early lows through the 1.1580 area before slowly moving back to the opening levels and late into the session pushing through to challenge the 1.1700 area and unable to push through the 1.1710 areas, the move into the grey hours saw early London appear and send the market back to the 1.1600 level and a gradual push through the London opening to test through to the NYK session pushing the 1.1500 level, NYK were quick buyers to push the market through to the 1.1650 area again in a quick move and then held through to the last hour of London before dropping quickly to make the days lows around the 1.1450 area,
  • JPY: Pushing off an unchanged level the market initially dipped to the 110.50 level before recovering and trading through the 111.00 level quickly and peaking just below the 111.20 areas before drifting back again and the moving to the Tokyo session saw steady selling through to the 110.30 areas and continuing through to the 110.00 level from the opening, and continuing through to the grey hours pressing the 109.65 level and the low of the day, light buying into the grey hours saw the market back to the 110.25 level and holding through the London opening, an hour in and the market pushed steadily through to the 110.50 areas and again and steadily pushed the opening levels for the NYK opening and a collapse back to the 109.80 level bouncing and then recovering steadily through the first couple of hours and pushing back to the opening level, this push through triggered some weak stops and the market rising steadily through to the 111.50 level struggling with the 111.60 level the market repeated the test but eventually drifted through to the close
  • AUD: Initially making early highs above the 0.5820 level and dropping off through to the early part of Tokyo testing through to the 0.5700 areas, bouncing off the level for the move into the Tokyo session and recovering some of the losses to hold around the 0.5750 area and slowly range higher through to the London opening, London opened around the days initial opening level and steadily drifted through to Tokyo testing through to the 0.5725 area with NYK entering the fray to test quickly to a new high and closing out some of the weaker shorts on the move to the 0.5830 areas and ranging above the 58 cents area until the close in London with the market dipping through to the 0.5750 area before a slow push back through to the close just off the highs.
  • EUR: A similar pattern to the other majors with the market dipping from opening highs around the 1.0710 level and dipping through to the 1.0650 with a small spike through to the 1.0640 area before starting a slow rise back to the opening for the move into Tokyo, the push through the Tokyo session saw the Euro slowly testing through to the London session pushing the 1,0750 level, the full London session saw the market trading back through to the NYK session pushing the 1.0675 area, quick buying into the NYK session saw the market quickly pushing the 1.0800 level running into medium sized offer the market ground through to the 1.0830 level before running out of steam and dipping back to the 1.0720 area for the to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

EUR       Eurozone Consumer Confidence A -11.6 | C -13 | P -6.6

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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