Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.215 | EURUSD 1.07880 | AUDUSD 0.59561 | NZDUSD 0.57706 | USDCAD 1.44601 | USDCHF 0.98153 | GBPUSD 1.17589 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT

 

Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.08236 | 1.07598

USDJPY                111.565 | 110.762

GBPUSD               1.18154 | 1.17349

USDCHF               0.98303 | 0.97917

AUDUSD              0.60343 | 0.59399

NZDUSD               0.58817 | 0.5797

USDCAD               1.44761 | 1.43459

EURCHF               1.06028 | 1.05841

EURGBP               0.91720 | 0.91241

EURJPY                120.481 | 119.529

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Slightly choppy opening, with the market dipping to the 1.1750 level before recovering the close and testing steadily through to just below the 1.1800 level before holding quietly through into Tokyo, and slowly dipping back towards the low in early trading, once through the morning session the Cable started a slow climb through to just below the 1.1820 level to make the highs for the session before drifting a little for a range around the figure level through to the grey hours, light offers through to the 1.1850 level with congestion forming in the area and likely to continue around the sentimental areas through to 1.2100 level with the possibility of stronger stops through the level and weak resistance giving rise to a possible short squeeze, downside bids into the 1.1550 level and likely to increase into the 1.1500  level and stronger bids on any dip  below the level towards 1.1450 and 1.1400 sentimental levels likely to provide significant bids until the market can break through the 1.1380 and the downside look vulnerable.
  • JPY: Rising through to the 111.50 level in early trading before slowly sliding through to the Tokyo session holding the 111.10 areas, Tokyo were slow sellers through to the 110.75 level before finding buyers and a slow climb back to the 111.50 level for the move into the grey hours, congestion to the downside protecting the 109.50 level and the possibility for a deeper move through to the 108,00 area and possible better support Topside offers increasing through the 111.70 level and likely weak stops on a break of the area and opening a test of 112.00 before renewed resistance through to the 112.20 level and breakout stops appearing through to the 112.50 area.
  • AUD: Early buying was nervous pushing the market towards the 0.5990 level before slipping back through into early Tokyo to make the sessions lows through onto the 0.5940 and a slow push back to the early highs again and a quick push squeezed the market higher testing quickly to 0.6030 areas before dropping back a little for the move into the grey hours with Democrat agreement in the US putting risk back on the table. Downside bids building into the 59 cents level with weak stops likely through the 0.5880 level and the downside becoming vulnerable through to the 56 cents level, topside offers light through to the 0.6080 level with stronger offers however, stops through the level and current news could see the market squeezing a little through to 62 cents.
  • EUR: Limited for the Euro with early test through the 1.0810 level and then Tokyo sellers pushing it back through to the opening lows to test the 1.0760 level and then starting a steady recovery and slow move to the Asian highs close to 1.0825 area before slowly drifting through to the grey hours holding the 1.0800 level. Strong bids through 1.0600 with weak stops on a break to the 105.80 level and a quick test through to the 1.0500 level, topside offers light through to the 1.0800 level with the possibility of a short squeeze and stops through there. Topside offers likely on the approaches to the 1.0900 area with possibly weak stops through the level and a quick test to the 1.1000 level open as a small short squeeze appears, however, once that is out of the way the sellers are likely to reappear and the downside remains vulnerable.

 

 

Overnight News

 

USD:

Trump: We’re working hard to make Easter a reality for reopening economy -WSJ

Trump: For the most part we won’t have to use defence production act but will use it if need be

Trump: Our decision on reopening economy will be based on hard facts and data

US senate reaches agreement on bipartisan stimulus plan –

JPY:

Japan names Masataka Miyazono to head $1.5T pension fund – Nikkei

NZD:

NZ declares state of emergency to combat virus – BBG

RUB/Asia:

7.8 earthquake 218k SSE of Severo-Kuril SE Russia

Tsunami waves possible after massive quake

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Trade Balance (FEB) A 594m | C 550m | P -340m

NZD       Trade Balance 12mth YTD (FEB) A -3260m | C -3418m | P -3866m

0930      GBP        CPI YoY (FEB) C 1.7% | P 1.8%

0930      GBP        Core CPI YoY (FEB) C 1.5% | P 1.6%

0930      GBP        CPIH YoY (FEB) C 1.7% | P 1.8%

0930      GBP        CPI MoM (FEB) C 0.3% | P -0.3%

0930      GBP        House Price Index YoY (JAN) C 2.7% | P 2.2%

1100      USD       MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 20) P -8.4%

1230      USD       Durable Goods Orders (FEB P) C -1.0% | P -0.2%

1230      USD       Durable Ex Transportation (FEB P) C -0.4% | P 0.8%

1300      USD       House Price Index MoM (JAN) C 0.4% | P 0.6%

1430      USD       DOE US Crude Oil Inventory (MAR 20) P 1954k

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A general rise through day with choppy periods, opening around the 1.1500 level and pushed through to the 1.1600 area for the move into the Tokyo session, the market then ranged through to the grey hours centring around the 1.1630 level with brief flirtations with the 1.1650 area through Asia, grey hours buying saw the market testing towards the 1.1700 level before dipping back for the move through the London opening and into midmorning before taking a second run higher pushing steadily through to the 1.1800 areas with a wide range through NYK 1.1700-1.1800 before stabilizing and pulling into the 1.1750 area for the move through to the close.
  • JPY: USD selling was initially the name of the game with the USDJPY opening around the 111.25 areas and slipped through into the Tokyo session testing through to the lows of the day in the first half of Asia, a slow rise for the move through into the grey hours, and early London pushed through to the 110.90 level before quickly dipping to the low range of the day and starting a slower steady climb through to the 111.50 level dipping and running for a second time as the market ran into the final hour testing the 111.70 areas, quick dip back for the close of the end of the day unchanged for the day.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.5810 lows the market steadily pushed through to the 0.5930 area in a tight channelled range before slowly slipping lower through to just before the grey hours, a quick rally through into the grey hours saw the market testing 0.5980 level before drifting a little back to the 0.5950 area, the opening in NYK saw the market dipping back through the 59 cents level slipping through to the 0.5870 area before recovering for the move into NYK and a limited run to the London close where selling saw the market back to the 59 cents level and a slow rise through to the close.
  • EUR: Rising in early trading with a quick move to the 1.0750 area before pausing for a short period and running again for the move into the Tokyo opening testing the 1.0775 level and then holding again for a short period before running again this time ranging around the 1.0800 level with peaks to the 1.0820 level but after awhile drifting through the 1.0800 area and continuing through to the grey hours lowing half the gains, grey hour buying was quick and savage on a move through to the 1.0865 area before dipping back to hold in a tight range around the 1.0830 levels until deep into the morning London session and a push through to just below the 1.0900 level before starting a series of dips through the NYK session taking the market all the way back through to the 1.0750 level and the end of London, a slow run to the close to push back above the 1.0800 level.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Composite (MAR P) A 40.7 | P 49.0

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Manufacturing (MAR P) A 50.1 | 50.2

AUD       CBA Australia PMI Services (MAR P) A 39.8 | P 49.0

JPY         Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (MAR P) A 44.8 | P 47.8

EUR       Markit Germany Services PMI (MAR P) A 34.5 | C 43 | P 52.5

EUR       Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (MAR P) A 37.2 | C 41.5 | P 50.7

EUR       Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (MAR P) A 45.7 | C 40 | P 48

EUR       Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (MAR P) A 31.4 | C 38.8 | P 51.6

EUR       Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (MAR P) A 44.8 | C 39.5 | P 49.2

EUR       Markit Eurozone Services PMI (MAR P) A 28.4 | C 39.8 | 52.6

GBP        Markit PMI Manufacturing s.a. (MAR P) A 48 | C 45 | P 51.7

GBP        Markit/CiPS Composite PMI (MAR P) A 37.3 | C 45.1 | P 53

GBP        Markit/CiPS Services PMI (MAR P) A 35.7 | C 45 | P 53.2

USD       Markit US Composite PMI (MAR P) A 40.5 | P 49.6

USD       Markit US Manufacturing PMI (MAR P) A 49.2 | C 44 | P 50.7

USD       Markit US Services PMI (MAR P) A 39.1 | C 42 | P 49.4

USD       New Home Sales MoM (FEB) A -4.4% | C -1.8% | P 7.9% | R 10.5%

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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