Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.61 | EURUSD 1.10323 | AUDUSD 0.6060 | NZDUSD 0.59548 | USDCAD 1.40187 | USDCHF 0.96352 | GBPUSD 1.22081 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.11442 | 1.10693
USDJPY 107.972 | 107.127
GBPUSD 1.24735 | 1.2361
USDCHF 0.95605 | 0.95058
AUDUSD 0.61844 | 0.6115
NZDUSD 0.60580 | 0.59973
USDCAD 1.40817 | 1.40243
EURCHF 1.06002 | 1.05759
EURGBP 0.89605 | 0.89238
EURJPY 120.085 | 118.87
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2450 level the market initially dipped through to the 1.2400 level for the move into the Tokyo session with Asian buyers moving in to push the market through to the 1.2465 level, from that level onwards though it was all one way with the market slowly drifting through to the grey hours pushing slowly through the 1.2400 level and finding a base into the grey hours around the 1.2360 level. Weak offers through the topside through to the 1.2500 level where congestion increases and likely to continue through the 1.2550 area even though there could be some light stops the congestion is likely to continue through to 1.2600 level before opening the topside and the market free to move higher over the coming days, downside bids light through to the 1.2300 level with limited sentimental bids until that level and strong congestion likely to appear before weakness reappears through to the 1.2100 level.
- JPY: opening around the 107.70 level the market held for the most part above the 107.50; level through too late in the session before finally pushing through to the 107.20 level with USD under pressure throughout the market the USDJPY eventually made lows just above the 107.10 level before rejecting the level and starting a slow rising back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids likely into and 107.00 level however, a break here opens the chance of further downside losses with the likelihood of very little until the 105.00 area. Topside offers light through the 108.00 level and likely to see increasing resistance only as the market pushes for the 109.00 level.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6160 level and sagging through the first hour to test to the current low around the 0.6115 level, the mover into the Tokyo session saw the market rising through to the 0.6180 level halting and then dropping back to hold quietly around the 0.6150 area to the grey hours, Technically on a roll and the topside see’s limited congestion around the 0.6200 level and likely to continue in the same vein through to the 63 cents level where stronger offers possibly lie, downside bids light through to the 59 cents level with some congestion there before opening for another test to the 58 cent area and weak bids through to the 55 cents level.
- EUR: Opening a little lower from Friday and testing through into the Tokyo opening pressing towards the 1.1100 level before early buyers reversed the move and quickly push through to the 1.1145 level and Fridays highs, the move failed and the Euro went into a slow drift through to the grey hours pushing easily through the 1.1100 level and continuing through to the 1.1070 level for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids light through to the 1.0850-00 area where the possibility of strong congestion however a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1100 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1180-1.1200 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1220 level to open weakness through to the 1.1260 area.
Overnight News
USD:
Trump announces 30 day extension of Coronavirus guidelines – AXS
After three Coronavirus stimulus packages, Congress is already prepping phase four – WSJ
Pipelines ask US oil drillers to curb output as tanks fill up – BBG
AUD:
Australia says all foreign takeovers now need FIRB approval – BBG
China spree sparks FIRB crackdown – AFR
NZD:
Westpac sees NZ GDP plunging in 2Q Surging in 3Q – BBG
Westpac now sees NZ unemployment rate rising to 9% – BBG
Westpac now sees NZ 2q GDP falling 14% QoQ – BBG
RBNZ Plans open market operation for corporates
RBNZ Reports offer to purchase NZ Govt, May 2021 nominal bonds
RBNZ: Corporate OMO another tool to provide liquidity
RBNZ: Weekly operation will accept corporate bonds, ABS
RBNZ continues to monitor market developments very closely
RBNZX stands ready to act to ensure market stability
RUB:
BNO Newsroom: Moscow will be put on lockdown due to Coronavirus officials say – TWT
GBP:
Fitch downgrades the UK to AA- from AA with negative outlook – BBG
CNY:
Second blow for China’s factories as US, Europe cancel orders – BBG
PBoC cuts 7-day reverse repo rate to 2.2% from 2.40%
Xi: Government will adjust support policies to protect small and medium firms from impact of Coronavirus outbreak – RTRs
Xi: Should actively resume operation and production amid virus control – RTRs
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
GBP Nationwide House Px n.s.a. YoY (MAR) A | C 2.1% | P 2.3%
0700 CHF KOF Leading Indicator (MAR) C 85.0 | P 100.9
0830 GBP Consumer Credit YoY (FEB) P 6.1%
0830 GBP Mortgage Approvals (FEB) C 68.5k | P 70.9%
0830 GBP Net Consumer Credit (FEB)
0830 GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (FEB) C 4.0b | P 4.0b
1200 EUR German CPI YoY (MAR P) C 1.3% | P 1.7%
1200 EUR German CPI EU Harmonized YoY (MAR P) C 1.3% | P 1.7%
1200 EUR German CPI MoM (MAR P) C 0.0% | P 0.4%
1200 EUR German CPI EU Harmonized MoM (MAR P) C 0.1% | P 0.6%
1400 USD Pending Home Sales YoY (FEB) C 6.0% | 6.7%
2100 NZD NZ Government 8Month Financial Statements
2145 NZD Building Permits MoM (FEB) P -2.0%
2301 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence C -15 | P -7
2330 JPY Jobless Rate (FEB) C 2.4% | P 2.4%
2350 JPY Industrial Production YoY (FEB P) C -4.9% | -2.3%
2350 JPY Large Retailers Sales (FEB) C -1.6% | P -1.4%
2350 JPY Retail Trade YoY (FEB) C -1.5% | P -0.4%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A light drift from the opening around the 1.2180 level to test through to the 1.2135 area and the low of the day, the move through to the Tokyo session saw a steady rise through to the 1.2200 level and Tokyo initially did nothing with it holding around the 1.2180-1.2200 levels before starting a steady rise through midsession to test the 1.2300 level with only a brief pause around the 1.2250 level, the move through to the grey hours saw the market drift back to the 1.2250 level and then dip quickly through to the 1.2220 level hold and run a second time into the London opening testing the 1.2150 level before starting a steady tight channelled to its former 1.2300 level before ranging around the 1.2250 level through the opening NYK session and rising steadily again through to the 1.2400 level before running into some resistance the move to the Close saw the market pushing quickly above the 1.2450 level with likely weak stops from the 1.2400 level and the market failed to get beyond the 1.2470 area even though the market didn’t really back away from the level.
- JPY: Dipping steadily through into the Tokyo session from the days opening highs around the 109.70 level to test into the Tokyo session through to the 109.10 level before bouncing on the opening and then after a brief pause around the 109.40 level running steadily lower through to the 108.50 level, bids in the area supported the market around the 108.40 level through to early London where early buyers helped push the market back to the 109.00 level ranging through to the NYK session around the 108.80 level before USD selling appeared after the bland data and the USDJPY quickly pushed through to the 108.00 area to range around the area dipping to make the low just through the 107.80 level before finishing the day around 107.60 area on a quick dip on the close.
- AUD: Rising from early lows the Oz pushed through to the Tokyo session testing the 0.6080 level before drifting through early Tokyo to the 0.6050 area, once the Tokyo fix was over with the market saw steady buying and stops triggered on a move through to the 0.6120 level to make early highs before slipping back to hold quietly around the 61 cents level through to the grey hours, early sellers through to the 0.6050 and then ranging in the 0.6050-70 area through to the NYK opening and the lows quickly made on a test towards the 0.6020 level before eventually moving off the lows and a steady move to the 0.6070 level and a quicker move through to the 0.6150 level as USD sellers reappeared in size , once through the level the market managed to continue in a more sedate manner to test the 62 cents level before dropping back a little for the move to the close.
- EUR: Limited rise through to midsession in Tokyo with the market lifting off the 1.1020 area to test through into Tokyo pushing the 1.1050 level and ranging into the midsession before pushing through quickly to the 1.1065 level and then slowly rising to test the 1.1080 area before dipping and holding 1.1060 through to the grey hours, with early Europeans selling the Euro and London coming in and doing the same and the market steadily heading to the 1.1000 level the level generally held through into the NYK session before the added pressure saw the market quickly test towards the 1.0950 level before bouncing off the low into the US data and USD selling saw the market in a very tight channel to test towards the 1.1100 area. Pausing through the London close the market eventually started to rise again more slowly this time however, it pushed through to the 1.1150 areas for the move to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
CNY Industrial Profits YTD YoY (FEB) A -38.3% | C -8.0% | P -3.3%
GBP UK Sovereign debt to be rated by Fitch
USD PCE Core YoY (FEB) A 1.8% | C 1.7% | P 1.6%
USD PCT Core MoM (FEB) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
USD Personal Income (FEB) A 0.6% | C 0.4% | P 0.6%
USD Personal Spending (FEB) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
USD Real Personal Spending (FEB) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
CAD BoC rate decision A 0.25% | P 0.75%
USD U. of Mich Sentiment (MAR F) A 89.1 | C 90.0 | P 95.9
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (MAR 27) A 728 | P 772
Best Regards
Andy
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